A.J. Preller should have been getting itchy. It’s too early within the season for substantial trades; they often occur earlier than the beginning of the yr or when the calendar has flipped to July. Groups that thought they had been going for it normally haven’t accrued sufficient proof to alter that view, and even when they wish to commerce somebody, the potential of discovering the next bidder nearer to the deadline makes sellers hesitant to maneuver. However the Marlins and Padres overcame these components and linked up on a deal that sends Luis Arraez to San Diego for a sampler platter’s value of prospects: Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, Nathan Martorella, and Woo-Suk Go.
There’s lots to unpack on this deal. We’ll begin in San Diego after which head east, as a result of the Padres’ aspect is extra easy. It’s like this: the Padres had roughly eight batters they wished to make use of day by day. Luis Campusano is extra journeyman than star, however the group appears comfy with him at catcher. With Manny Machado again to enjoying the sector after an damage restricted him to DH to begin the yr, the infield is ready. The outfield probably isn’t altering, both: Jurickson Profar seemed just like the weakest hyperlink earlier than the season, however he’s been the group’s most efficient participant thus far.
Their solely believable path to offensive enchancment, then, is at DH. That’s nice, although! You’ll be able to play anybody at DH, roughly. However if you happen to play a wonderful defender there, you’re losing that expertise, and the Padres have the most effective defenses in baseball this season, so whoever they acquired most likely wasn’t going to displace considered one of their regulars.
Arraez is an ideal slot in that sense, as a result of he can positively hit and might’t actually discipline. The Marlins performed him at second base, however they most likely shouldn’t have. He’s been the worst defensive second baseman by a mile this yr in response to OAA and UZR, and the second worst in response to DRS. The attention check agrees; he simply doesn’t have the instruments to deal with the place. He’s athletic, however his athleticism manifests very otherwise, extra as outrageous hand-eye coordination. The Padres performed him at DH in his first recreation and second base to offer Xander Bogaerts a breather in his subsequent one; I count on him to largely DH with spot duties at first and second to offer Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth some relaxation.
Arraez goes to hit on the Padres, as a result of he hits in every single place he goes. He may not appear like a prototypical DH, but it surely doesn’t a lot matter the way you get to your manufacturing so long as you get to it. He has a profession 123 wRC+, we undertaking him for a 126 wRC+ mark the remainder of the best way, and he’s at 114 thus far this yr regardless of a sluggish begin. He doesn’t add a whole lot of worth on the basepaths and he doesn’t have residence run energy, however if you happen to’re on the lookout for somebody to get on base and rack up doubles, Arraez is your man. That’s an enormous improve from Graham Pauley, Eguy Rosario, and Tyler Wade, the group’s different choices on the place.
While you have a look at it that method, the commerce is an apparent one for the Padres. There probably aren’t any difference-making starters available on the market, notably since they already went out and purchased Dylan Stop. Relievers don’t actually transfer the needle, and I feel they’re ready to see what their bullpen wants are nearer to the deadline anyway. However they’re able the place each win issues. Earlier than buying and selling for Arraez, we had them projected for 83.5 wins and a forty five.3% probability of constructing the playoffs. In different phrases, they’re proper on the borderline, so an additional win or two will go a good distance.
Arraez will increase their projection by one or two wins, relying on who you assume was going to get the at-bats he’s now taking. He’ll be again for extra subsequent yr, too, after which he’ll turn into a free agent. Positive, he’s extra well-known than he’s good – batting common will try this – however that doesn’t imply he isn’t good. Most groups in baseball would take a DH with a 125 wRC+ – they’ll’t all have Shohei Ohtani or Yordan Alvarez. And due to Miami paying his contract right down to the league minimal, he’s additionally a cut price for the Padres this yr, as Alden Gonzalez reported.
The Padres have already jumped via hoops to get their payroll down under the aggressive steadiness tax threshold – buying and selling Juan Soto isn’t one thing you do only for enjoyable. In the event that they’d paid Arraez’s full wage, they’d be flirting with the primary degree of the CBT this yr, they usually’ve been over the tax line for the final two years. Doing so for a 3rd straight yr carries some sturdy penalties, and by getting the Marlins to pay Arraez’s wage, the Padres are leaving themselves room for a deadline acquisition with out risking an overage. Consider it like your first checking account out of school; they’re not proper at the road but, however saving cash now implies that they don’t have to fret about each final penny they spend for the remainder of the yr.
Earlier than I cowl the large query – whether or not it was value it – let’s undergo Miami’s aspect and describe the prospects, courtesy of notes from Eric Longenhagen.
The Marlins have been an outright catastrophe this yr. Their 9-26 file is after all terrible, they usually’ve earned it; they’re scoring roughly 3.5 runs per recreation and permitting 5.8. Almost all of their hitters have been worse than projected, and their rotation is lacking primarily everybody. Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, and Jesús Luzardo are all on the shelf, as is tried fill-in A.J. Puk, with Alcantara and Pérez unquestionably out for the season. Ryan Weathers and Trevor Rogers lead the group in innings pitched; they’ve mixed for a 5.32 ERA and 0.2 WAR. Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer are thrilling however unproven, and Meyer is again in Triple-A to protect his group management get some relaxation.
In different phrases, this group isn’t competing this yr and subsequent yr seems to be dicey. It’s not a matter of fixing just a few issues; the offense wants a whole overhaul and the farm system doesn’t have many hitters to supply. Enter the Padres, who despatched three place gamers again within the deal.
Head, the very best prospect within the commerce, was ranked 14th right here at FanGraphs main as much as the 2023 Draft and fell a little bit past that to San Diego, the place, per Eric, trade rumor is he was the choice to Ralphy Velazquez, who was taken by Cleveland just a few spots earlier than the Padres picked. Head signed for $2.8 million as a toolsy highschool outfielder with plus-plus pace and an opportunity to develop into plus energy, although extra via sheer explosiveness than commonplace, frame-based projection. After the draft, Head’s efficiency at Low-A Lake Elsinore had him proper on the borderline of our Prime 100 listing. Chilly climate prep hitters like Head could be dangerous hit device propositions, however Head’s 82% zone contact and 92% total contact price throughout 124 PA had been indications that he was going to hit. He was an offseason Choose to Click on.
Up to now in 2024, nonetheless, Head has been swinging and lacking rather more than he did in 2023; his contact price is nearer to 65% and he has as many whiffs as he does balls in play. Backfoot breaking balls have been an particularly thorny factor for Head to regulate to. The excellent news is Head has pull energy. He can snatch errors and rip them to proper discipline with regularity. As long as he can develop right into a extra polished middle fielder, he can strike out steadily and nonetheless clear the offensive bar typical of that place. The emphasis then is on his growth in middle. He runs just like the wind, however his reads and routes aren’t nice. He has a whole lot of sharpening to do on the market however, given Head’s background as a chilly climate prospect, Eric is inclined to undertaking that he’ll. Head continues to be a possible on a regular basis participant and power-hitting leadoff man.
Marsee seems to be like a future fourth outfielder, with upside for extra. He’s run gaudy stroll charges all through his profession within the minors, gained MVP of the Arizona Fall League final yr, and performed loads of middle discipline. The large danger right here is that his swing is good for crushing inside pitches however weak towards largely every part else, a problem that hasn’t been uncovered by the A-Ball pitchers he’s confronted. In 2024, he’s off to a sluggish begin in Double-A, although his energy and walks are largely intact, with BABIP accounting for his lackluster total line.
Martorella can unquestionably hit, with plus uncooked energy and a powerful potential to activate excessive fastballs. He hit too many grounders in 2023 regardless of good total manufacturing, however he’s placing every part within the air thus far this yr and posting a powerful .292/.393/.427 line in Double-A. This isn’t a scout-the-statline deal, both; his energy comes from spectacular bat pace, and Eric thinks that can translate within the majors. The large concern right here is that he’s a 1B/DH sort, which doesn’t depart a lot room for anything to go fallacious.
Go signed a serious league deal this offseason however began in Double-A, the place he’s been bullying hitters however getting inconsistent outcomes. His calling playing cards are a mid-90s fastball and a low-90s cutter, each of which give hitters suits. He struck out roughly a 3rd of the batters he confronted in KBO motion, and he’s at 28% thus far this yr. He’s a probable center reliever, with an inconsistent launch level holding him again considerably, and the early returns within the minors haven’t modified that outlook a lot.
None of these guys are notably thrilling in a this-dude-will-be-the-new-face-of-the-franchise method. One of the best grade we’ve got on them is a forty five, and we’re hardly alone in that evaluation; none of them made any of the Prime 100 lists throughout the trade. However I feel that this sort of return makes a whole lot of sense for Miami. I feel that if you happen to’re attempting to win with out spending, trades like this are a good way to go about it. I don’t like that technique, however if you happen to’re committing to it, that is the best way to do it.
Merely put, this Marlins core isn’t going to take them to the promised land. It’s clear that the group isn’t prepared to meaningfully improve their wage commitments to complement the expertise readily available; their Opening Day payroll hasn’t crested $100 million since 2017, and Jeffrey Loria nonetheless owned the group then. That implies that their solely actual path to compete is by growing a broad group of pre-arbitration contributors; it’s absolutely no accident that GM Peter Bendix is a Rays alum.
To do this, they want each high quality and amount. This commerce has a little bit little bit of each; Martorella and Head are instantly amongst Miami’s high 10 prospects, whereas Marsee and Go are the sorts of gamers who good groups get worth out of on the finish of their roster by maximizing their strengths (and, sure, doing it at or close to the main league minimal wage).
That raises a unique query: Is that this the very best the Marlins might do for Arraez? For me, it’s shut sufficient that I perceive why they determined to behave now as a substitute of ready. Arraez isn’t the type of man who will develop shortage worth; he’s a positionless hitter who’s between 20% and 30% higher than common. Guys like that get traded each deadline, and by no means for game-changing returns. The additional yr of group management is completely value one thing, but when he makes $13 million – $15 million in arbitration, I’m undecided it’s value a lot.
How totally different is Arraez from, say, Mark Canha? Our projections would say not totally different in any respect; we’ve got Canha down for a 126 wRC+ the remainder of the best way, the very same quantity as Arraez. The Tigers acquired him for a agency handshake and a lottery ticket this winter. He’s making $11.5 million this yr, proper according to what Arraez will probably take residence.
I’d somewhat have Arraez on my group than Canha, however is the distinction between 2024 Canha and 2025 Arraez one win? One and a half? It’s not lots both method. A lot of the cause to amass Arraez is as a result of he’s good and low-cost (with the Marlins masking his wage) this yr, which is what the Padres want. Subsequent yr is a bonus, however not rather more than that.
There’s a rational commerce premium hooked up to stars, however that’s as a result of they’ll present an enormous slug of worth in a single roster spot, and provide one thing that you would be able to’t replicate one-for-one. The best way Arraez produces worth is exclusive, however the quantity he produces isn’t. Groups don’t again the truck up for a hitter who has topped out at a 132 wRC+ and who doesn’t have a defensive residence. Which means the Marlins had been going to must dwell with a lackluster headliner, so I like that they went for a broad unfold of prospects provided that limitation.
As for San Diego, I feel that this commerce is an inexpensive continuation of what they’ve been doing for years, although I nonetheless consider that path is unsustainable. Nice groups have stars and depth. The Padres weren’t fairly in a position to get each, so that they’ve opted for high quality over amount. They’ve a number of the greatest gamers in baseball on their roster, and their backups are a mix of castoffs and mid-tier prospects. Wade is on his fourth group in 4 years. They only known as up 36-year-old Donovan Solano. José Azocar is their fourth outfielder and will get a significant quantity of enjoying time.
The pitching employees is comparable, with nice abilities on the high and query marks instantly following. It’s simply so onerous to get via a season with everybody wholesome, which is how you find yourself buying and selling for Wealthy Hill and Garrett Cooper, to call two examples from 2023. It’s onerous to repair this downside externally. You need to draft and develop inner choices, however the Padres are perpetually buying and selling theirs for extra top-liners. San Diego just about all the time trades in bulk – 4 gamers for Stop, 5 for Soto, 4 (if you happen to depend main leaguers) for Josh Hader, 4 for Blake Snell, and so forth.
If I had been operating a group, I wouldn’t try this. I perceive that point was of the essence; Preller was attempting to match the timelines of his present stars and win for proprietor Peter Seidler. However the Padres are preventing an unwinnable battle towards depth as a result of they simply don’t retain sufficient of their very own minor leaguers. Heck, look now. They’ve 4 gamers on our Prime 100 (Merrill will quickly graduate), however they’re extremely skinny behind that; no different strong farm system has so few prospects with 40-45 grades, and that’s solely accelerating with this commerce.
That mentioned, there’s no different method out however ahead proper now. The Padres are a win-now group, they usually’ve made a ton of selections that underscore that time. On condition that constraint, after all taking every part underneath the sofa cushions and buying and selling it for Luis Arraez improves their group this season. Not one of the prospects they traded had been more likely to make an influence this yr, and even subsequent yr is iffy. Earlier seasons’ trades have eroded their depth to the purpose the place their alternate options to Arraez are near-unplayable. One thing needed to be achieved, and if that one thing will get a Tony Gwynn-esque participant to San Diego atop the lineup, a lot the higher.
I assume what I’d say, ultimately, is that I like this commerce for each side, however that I don’t actually agree with both aspect’s chosen technique of team-building. The Padres drive the difficulty in a method I don’t perceive given their spectacular potential to develop stars internally. The Marlins wish to construct a system that produces wins on a budget, and that’s going to require a very long time within the wilderness given the state of the group. This deal pushes each groups additional down their chosen paths, they usually’re superb companions in that sense. However I’m undecided both will like the place they find yourself.