The percentages are overwhelming that USC, UCLA or Stanford will emerge because the winner of the NCAA’s Nationwide Collegiate Seashore Volleyball Championship.
Their information paint a clear-as-day image:
- USC and UCLA went 3-3 in opposition to one another.
- USC was 2-1 in opposition to Stanford.
- UCLA went 2-2 in opposition to Stanford.
- In opposition to the remainder of the NCAA seashore volleyball world, USC, UCLA and Stanford had been a mixed 84-3.
84-3!
Which means the Nos. 1, 2 and three seeds on this weekend’s NCAA Championship gained 96.5% of their duals that weren’t performed in opposition to one another.
The daunting activity that awaits the opposite 14 underdog groups within the NCAA bracket that hit the seashore on Friday by way of Sunday in Gulf Shores, Alabama, is methods to beat that statistical chance imposed by the powerhouse trio out of the soon-to-be-defunct Pac-12. Their solely saving grace is that the event is single elimination.
Nonetheless, compelling historical past and that break-even file over six conferences so far inform us that top-seeded USC (33-5) or second seed UCLA (32-6) are more than likely to take a celebratory group swim within the heat waters of the Gulf of Mexico after the NCAA title twin on Sunday.
(What college-beach volleyball fan doesn’t know that the Girls of Troy or the Bruins have been the one groups to savor that salty dip for the reason that sport was sanctioned by the NCAA in 2016?)
USC has its periscope centered on a four-peat. Sure, Coach Dain Blanton’s program has gained three nationwide titles in a row. UCLA twice throughout its archrival’s unprecedented run begrudgingly has settled for runners-up honors (2021 and ‘23,). The rating of final yr’s championship twin was 3-2, with the natty not determined till the Nourse twins (Audrey and Nicole) prevailed on the 3s in a third-set tiebreaker.
The kicker within the remaining yr of the COVID period in seashore volleyball is that 11 of the 20 starters from the 2023 title tussle return in key positions for a possible encore, together with arguably the very best top-court pairs within the faculty recreation: USC seniors Megan Kraft (123-12 in her profession) and Delaynie Maple (126-13), and UCLA tremendous senior Lexy Denaburg (130-36) and sophomore Abby Boyd (57-13).
The one gate-crasher with a compelling likelihood to breach seems to be Stanford (31-5), though the younger Cardinal squad had extra success early within the the season than late.
Groups with the proverbial puncher’s likelihood in a single-elimination format embrace fourth-seeded Florida State (30-7) and 5 seed Cal Poly (29-6). The Seminoles have gotten near a title a number of occasions, however the Mustangs have fielded a extra secure lineup. Their No. 1 duo of sophomores Ella Connor and Izzy Martinez has been proper there with most of the collegiate recreation’s high pairs.
In search of a possible bracket-buster within the backside half of the 17-team draw?
Tenth-seeded Lengthy Seashore State (28-9) is 8-5 in its final 13 and its opening-round foe, seven seed California (21-13), lugged down the regular-season stretch with a 6-7 file, giving the underdog Seashore the sting in the important thing class of latest kind. The voters on the newest AVCA coaches ballot (launched on Tuesday, two days after the choice committee seeded the sector) put Lengthy Seashore State at No. 7 and Cal at No. 8.
The NCAA included single elimination into the final two nationwide tournaments. In 2022, eight first-round duals eradicated the losers earlier than a (then) conventional double-elimination format kicked in for the remaining eight groups till a winner-take-all remaining. The 2023 occasion was the primary to undertake full single elimination and a play-in twin for the sixteenth and seventeenth seeds was added, the winner to fulfill the No. 1 seed.
For the reason that creation of single-elimination, the primary rounds and play-in have produced three seeded upsets. In 2022, No. 10 Georgia State knocked off No. 7 Grand Canyon 3-2. The 2023 event noticed No. 17 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi high No. 16 UT-Martin 3-0 within the play-in, and No. 10 Stanford take down No. 7 Grand Canyon 3-2.
Friday’s schedule
Right here’s the entire schedule for Friday’s motion in Gulf Shores, with the primary twin beginning at 9 p.m. and every following roughly an hour later:
No. 16 North Florida vs. No. 17 Tennessee-Chattanooga (play-in); No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Washington; No. 5 Cal Poly vs. No. 12 Arizona State.
No. 1 USC vs. winner of North Florida-Chattanooga; No. 8 Loyola Marymount vs. No. 9 Hawaii; No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
No. 7 California vs. No. 10 Lengthy Seashore State; No. 3 Stanford vs. No. 14 Georgia State; No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 LSU.
The primary of 4 quarterfinal duals is scheduled to start out at 10 a.m. Jap on Saturday. The tentative begin time for the primary of the 2 semifinals on Saturday is 2 p.m. Jap. The championship twin on Sunday has a begin time of 11 a.m. Jap.
Click on right here for the ESPN schedule and viewing hyperlinks.
And click on right here for our match-by-match evaluation.
Let’s speak TV, climate
The complete three-day occasion from Gulf Shores might be telecast on linear cable by one in all three ESPN channels, with protection piggy-backed on the ESPN+ subscription service.
The 9 duals on Friday will air on the third-tier ESPNU channel, beginning at 9 a.m. Jap. The primary-round twin involving three-time defending NCAA champion USC, scheduled to start out round midday Jap, additionally may have every of the 5 courts lined with separate streams on ESPN+.
The linear feed will change to ESPN2 on Saturday, beginning with the primary quarterfinal at 10 a.m. Jap and persevering with by way of the quarters and the semifinals. Every courtroom for the duals on Saturday may have particular person streams on ESPN+.
The championship twin on Sunday, beginning at 11 a.m. Jap, will originate on the flagship ESPN channel and every courtroom might be streamed on ESPN+.
The NCAA beach-volleyball remaining on ESPN in 2023 averaged 380,000 viewers over its three-hour length, a 208% enhance from the 2022 title twin that aired on ESPN2. The beginning time this yr is an hour earlier, which could have an effect on the viewers for the reason that telecast will signal on at 8 a.m. Pacific time.
The climate in springtime on the fickle Redneck Riviera by no means could be taken with no consideration, however the long-range forecast for the weekend signifies no important points.
Friday’s outlook, in response to The Climate Channel, requires partly cloudy skies with temperatures within the excessive 70s, a 12% menace of rain and offshore wind of 11 mph blowing from the southeast. Comparable situations are anticipated on Saturday, with the specter of rain growing to a still-manageable 24%. The excessive on Sunday is predicted to hit 80, with an 18% likelihood of rain and 10 mph wind out of the southeast, all-in-all superb climate for seashore volleyball.
Pac-12, Pipers and Avas …
The NCAA choice committee despatched the Pac-12 out with a bang, selecting six of its groups (one automated qualifier and 5 at-large bids), probably the most for any convention within the three seasons for the reason that seashore area expanded from eight. USC was routinely positioned within the 17-team bracket because the champion of the ultimate Pac-12 event. UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Arizona State and Washington had been tabbed as at-large entrants.
In 2022 and 2023, the nine-team league had 4 within the area (USC, UCLA, Stanford and Cal in each years). With 5 of the eight at-larges in a single convention, the remaining eight had been restricted to 3. Cal Poly and Lengthy Seashore State acquired in from the seven-team Large West and LSU from the four-member CCSA. Shut out within the at-large race had been Convention-USA (9 groups), the Solar Belt (eight groups), Atlantic Solar (eight groups), West Coast Convention (seven groups), Southland Convention (eight) and Ohio Valley Convention (six groups). …
4 sand Pipers could be seen this weekend at Gulf Shores, two every from Cal Poly and Washington. Piper Ferch and Piper Naess are key starters for Coach Todd Rogers’ Mustangs out of San Luis Obispo. Piper Monk-Heidrich is a grad scholar who performs on the No. 1 courtroom for the Huskies after transferring from UCLA. She has a freshman teammate named Piper Stephenson. In different name-game trivia, Arizona State has 4 named Ava on its roster: freshmen Williamson and Haughy, sophomore Lewison-German and redshirt sophomore Kirunchyk. …
OVC-champion Chattanooga picked up a extremely serviceable participant from its indoor crew in 5-foot-10 grad switch Morgan Romano. After serving to the Mocs go 19-14 on the exhausting courtroom, Romano has recorded an 18-7 file within the sand, enjoying on the No. 5 courtroom. Whereas competing indoors for Rider within the MAAC from 2019 to 2022, she was a college’s first four-time all-conference performer, and was the league’s participant of the yr through the 2020-21 season and its 2019 rookie of the yr.
AVCA All-Individuals
UCLA’s Denaburg of UCLA, Xolani Hodel of Stanford, and USC’s Kraft at the moment are four-time AVCA All-Individuals.
The groups had been introduced Wednesday. Click on right here for all the knowledge and the primary and second All-American groups.