On Tuesday night time, in his twenty sixth sport of the 2024 season, Alex Bregman hit his first dwelling run. It didn’t come a second too quickly. Over his first 25 video games, Bregman had run a wRC+ of 65. Till this 12 months, he’d by no means had a stretch of 25 video games in a single season during which he’d hit so poorly. Even in his worst season, an damage shortened 2021 marketing campaign, he nonetheless completed with a 114 wRC+ and a couple of.1 WAR. Up to now this season, Bregman has been price simply 0.2 WAR. A cursory take a look at Bregman’s numbers over these first 25 video games tells a quite simple story: zero dwelling runs, .268 SLG, .052 ISO. That’s not only a energy outage. That’s a catastrophic grid failure. Solely as soon as earlier than has Bregman posted an ISO this low over a 25-game stretch: In 2017, within the 54th by way of 78th video games of his total profession, his ISO was .044. As a result of he’s been an affect participant for therefore lengthy, it’s simple to overlook that Bregman is simply 30 years outdated. It’s not as if Father Time has instantly caught up with him, and he’ll absolutely bounce again sooner or later. However what’s happening proper now?
Bregman has all the time had a considerably odd offensive profile. As Houston hitting coach Troy Snitker advised reporters, “He doesn’t hit for energy as a result of he hits the ball tougher than most guys; he hits for energy as a result of he hits it within the air greater than most guys.” In his total profession, Bregman has posted an above-average hard-hit fee simply as soon as, and he’s by no means damaged 40%. Nevertheless, he has impeccable plate self-discipline and bat-to-ball abilities, and he’s continually pulling the ball within the air. Though he’s recorded an above-average barrel fee simply as soon as, he’s by no means as soon as had a below-average candy spot fee. Should you’re pulling the ball within the air, particularly at Minute Maid Park, you don’t have to hit the ball laborious sufficient to qualify for a barrel; you simply have to hit it laborious sufficient to get to the Crawford Packing containers. Since 2015, Bregman has hit 18 dwelling runs at or beneath 95 mph, second in all of baseball to Didi Gregorius with 19.
Snitker noticed Bregman’s method as a possibility. “So with guys like that,” he mentioned, “for those who can have any small enhancements to how laborious the ball is coming off (the bat), he advantages essentially the most, as a result of he’s already getting essentially the most balls on the market.” This offseason, Snitker proposed weighted bat coaching to be able to improve Bregman’s bat pace, with the objective of including only a single mile per hour in exit velocity: “Simply his batted-ball profile with 1 mile an hour is price rather a lot in manufacturing,” mentioned Snitker. Bregman defined that the main target was “making an attempt to maneuver (the bat) as quick as I may.” After 4 months of coaching, Bregman mentioned, his bat pace numbers elevated considerably with out having any opposed affect on his mechanics. Coming into spring coaching, Bregman mentioned he felt like his swing was “in the very best spot that it’s been in years.”
For sure, the outcomes haven’t been there. Bregman’s hard-hit fee is down, as are his common exit velocity and his fiftieth percentile exit velo. Nevertheless, his ninetieth percentile EV is doing simply high-quality and he’s practically matched his max from final season. It’s not that he can’t hit the ball as laborious as he used to; it’s simply that he’s not doing it as usually.
Alex Bregman’s Exit Velocity
| Yr | HH% | EV | EV50 | EV90 | Max EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 37.6 | 88.9 | 98.4 | 102 | 109.2 |
| 2023 | 38.2 | 88.6 | 98.1 | 101.6 | 107.5 |
| 2024 | 33.7 | 87.5 | 96.7 | 102.2 | 107.2 |
However it’s not simply his contact high quality; it’s his total batted ball profile. Bregman’s groundball fee has exploded whereas his pull fee has cratered. His pull fee hadn’t been beneath 42% since his rookie season, however this 12 months it’s at 33.7%. Solely as soon as earlier than has he had a groundball fee as excessive as 40%; this 12 months he’s at 42.7%. Take a look at his spray charts from 2023 and 2024. There’s a lot much less within the outfield, particularly to the pull aspect.
Bregman’s line drive fee has cratered. When he hits the ball on the bottom, he’s rolling over the it and sending it to shortstop somewhat than ripping it down the road. His fly ball fee is sort of the identical, however when he places it within the air, he’s usually dropping his again shoulder, leading to a weakly hit ball to proper subject.
If we mix the contact high quality and batted ball profile, the image turns into extra clear. In 2023, Bregman’s hard-hit balls had a mean launch angle of 13.6 levels, and his balls that weren’t hard-hit had been at 20. This 12 months, these numbers are 10 and 26.8. Because it’s at the moment constituted, Bregman’s swing simply doesn’t appear as optimized because it as soon as was for laborious contact within the air. Within the launch angle charts beneath, I’ve highlighted the exit velocities above 80 mph. In 2023, his common EV was that prime on absolutely anything besides popups and balls hit straight into the bottom. This 12 months, not solely is he hitting the ball at optimum launch angles much less usually, when he does, he’s hitting it softer.
In order that’s the unhealthy information. Now let’s take a look at some causes for optimism. To start with, it’s nonetheless April (or a minimum of it was whereas I used to be penning this). Bregman normally begins sluggish, although not this poorly; his profession 110 wRC+ in March/April is his worst of any month. And possibly he simply wants a while to get used to his new swing. Second, an enormous cause for Bregman’s issues is that his line drive fee cratered, and line drive charges are notoriously fickle. Third, Bregman has been seeing harder pitches this season. As a result of he succeeds by lifting the ball to the pull aspect, it’s no shock that pitchers have all the time tried to assault him away and down. Nevertheless, they’ve completed a a lot better job of hitting that outdoors nook this season. He’s seen extra pitches on the perimeters of the zone and fewer pitches proper down the center than in any earlier season. The warmth maps beneath present the placement of the pitches he noticed in 2023 and 2024.
After taking a look at these, possibly we shouldn’t be shocked that Bregman has made worse swing choices and had a tougher time pulling and lifting the ball. Assuming pitchers don’t stay that exact all season, this might be one thing that evens out over time.
When a participant stops pulling the ball, it additionally is smart to test whether or not they simply can’t get round on the fastball anymore, however that doesn’t appear to be the issue. Though he’s had poor outcomes towards four-seamers, a pitch he normally crushes, Bregman is each chasing and whiffing towards them much less usually than he did final 12 months. It’s breaking and offspeed stuff that’s giving him matches, and gamers don’t normally overlook tips on how to hit tender stuff after eight glorious massive league seasons. That lends credence to the concept that Bregman has merely been combating timing points. That his homer final night time got here towards a changeup ought to make it all of the extra encouraging.
Let’s assume that Bregman’s weighted bat work did give him some extra energy. Perhaps we ought to be inspired by the truth that his exit velocity hasn’t fallen all that drastically, contemplating the truth that he hasn’t actually been swinging on the proper pitches or making the form of contact he needs. Perhaps when he does determine these issues out, that further energy will announce itself.
It’s additionally price noting that Bregman’s batting stance seems totally different this season. His stance was barely closed in 2023, however this 12 months he’s squared as much as the pitcher and somewhat extra upright. Moreover, his leg kick is commonly much less pronounced now than it was final season. Within the stills beneath, I captured Bregman for the time being when his knee was at its highest; it’s refined, however you may see that it’s a bit increased on the left, in 2023. Regardless of these adjustments, by the point he will get his foot down, it seems to me like he’s in just about the identical hitting place that he was final 12 months.
I don’t wish to come wherever close to blaming Bregman’s struggles on his new stance or the adjustments he made to his swing. There are 1,000,000 issues that might be affecting his efficiency, and it could be facile to grab on the few that I can see or examine within the Houston Chronicle. That mentioned, these are rather a lot of adjustments to make to a swing in a single offseason, particularly when that swing has been so efficient. Perhaps Bregman simply wants a while to get used to dealing with massive league pitching with this swing, or possibly he wants to think about returning to what was working for him earlier than. After a two-hit perforamnce in Mexico Metropolis on Sunday, Bregman famous that he one thing appeared to click on when he tried moving into his load earlier. Both means, issues are certain to choose up in the end, if for no different cause than that they couldn’t get a lot worse.