Any longer, possibly we should always ignore the numbers till Juan Soto is main the league in walks. Soto has had the very best stroll charge in baseball in every of the final 4 seasons. And he’s shut this season! He’s obtained 21 walks (tied for first) and a 17.4% stroll charge (tied for third). However first place belongs to Riley Greene, and that’s a shock. Greene shouldn’t be the particular person you’d anticipate to prime this checklist. Excepting a two-game stint in Single-A in 2022, he hasn’t run a stroll charge above 12% at any cease of his profession, however this season, he’s at 19.6%. Since 1903, the biggest single-season bounce in stroll charge by a certified participant in AL/NL historical past was 10.7 proportion factors, by Barry Bonds in 2004. Proper now, Greene is sitting on a bounce of 11.2 proportion factors. He’s additionally sitting on a 157 wRC+, because of a .244 ISO that ranks twenty second in baseball, simply behind Soto. Except for the truth that it’s nonetheless April, what precisely is occurring?
For the second 12 months in a row, Greene has reduce his chase charge, and this 12 months the drop is greater than 5 proportion factors. Wish to stroll extra? Not swinging at balls is a superb begin! However check out his swing charge on pitches contained in the zone.
Riley Greene 12 months-Over-12 months
| 12 months | Chase% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | Zone% | CSW% | Ball% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 27.6 | 64.3 | 45.3 | 48.3 | 28.1% | 36.2% |
| 2023 | 26.5 | 68.3 | 46.8 | 48.7 | 28.4% | 36.9% |
| 2024 | 21.2 | 58.8 | 39.1 | 47.4 | 30.5% | 41.2% |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
It’s down by almost 10 factors! Amongst all certified gamers, Greene has the Twelfth-lowest general swing charge, by advantage of being twenty seventh lowest outdoors the zone and twenty fourth lowest inside it. It’s not simply that he’s chasing much less, it’s that he’s being a lot much less aggressive general. With such a giant drop on pitches contained in the zone, I questioned whether or not Greene had turn out to be too passive. In any case, his exit velocity numbers are down a bit, and his 63.2% swing charge on meatballs (pitches proper down the center that it’s best to positively be swinging at) is fifteenth lowest amongst certified gamers. Nevertheless, in accordance with Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, not solely is Greene making higher swing choices than he did in 2023, he ranks seventeenth in all of baseball (minimal 70 plate appearances). Greene has reduce his swing charge within the coronary heart zone by 15 proportion factors, however apparently slicing 9 proportion factors off his swing charge within the chase zone was a worthy tradeoff.
Regardless of being a lot choosier, Greene has improved his contact charge by lower than a proportion level, which is considerably odd. We are able to see what’s occurring after we break issues down by pitch sort. He has reduce his in-zone swing charge by roughly the identical quantity in opposition to all three classes of pitches, however take a look at the breakdown of his chase charges.
Offspeed pitches are nonetheless his largest downside, however he’s halved his chase charge in opposition to fastballs, and reduce his chase charge in opposition to breaking pitches by 1 / 4. Nobody who has seen no less than 100 fastballs outdoors the zone has chased fewer of them than Greene. This helps clarify issues: He’s making a hair extra contact on pitches contained in the zone, however his contact charge on pitches outdoors the zone has fallen by almost 5 proportion factors. That’s what occurs when the pitches you’re chasing are tougher to hit. In 2023, fastballs (which run decrease whiff charges) made up 37.6% of the pitches Greene chased. Up to now this 12 months, they’re simply 19.2%.
It’s necessary to remember the fact that a participant’s contact charge on pitches outdoors the zone isn’t essentially that necessary. Chasing and whiffing isn’t nice, however chasing and making weak contact is often worse. That’s a part of the rationale Greene is entering into deeper counts and dealing so many walks. Regardless that he’s swinging at means fewer strikes, extra of the balls that Greene truly places into play are approaching pitches within the zone: 83.1%, up from 80.7% in 2023.
Earlier than we finish, I want to take you on a quick detour. I discussed earlier than that Greene’s in-zone swing charge has dropped roughly indiscriminately. He’s down roughly eight factors in opposition to offspeed pitches and 10 factors in opposition to fastballs and breaking balls.
Understandably, opponents have reacted to this by throwing Greene much more offspeed pitches. In a considerably odd aspect notice, Greene is underneath the impression that he has, in reality, stopped chasing changeups. “Heater in, changeup away,” he informed reporters. “It’s virtually automated now. Till I can show that I can lay off the changeup away, they’re going to maintain throwing it. And I really feel like I’ve been doing a superb job just lately of shedding the changeup away.” To be clear, he is swinging at considerably fewer changeups, however solely inside the zone (the place he’s swinging at much less of all the pieces). That’s in itself a victory, as offspeed pitches give Greene a ton of bother, however he’s nonetheless chasing them at a virtually equivalent charge. In 2023, 14.6% of his swings got here in opposition to offspeed pitches. In 2023, that quantity is 28.6%. It’s almost double! His 2023 swing charge is on the left, and 2024 is on the fitting.
Greene has executed an amazing job of shedding elevated fastballs this season, and he’s additionally executed a greater job of shedding low breaking balls. However as a result of so lots of his swings are coming in opposition to changeups, his swing zone is targeted down and away. When he swings at offspeed pitches, he’s worse than ever. He’s working a .158 wOBA and a 50% whiff charge in opposition to them, and his 83.5 mph exit velocity in opposition to them is dragging his general EV numbers down. Nevertheless, as a result of he’s selecting higher fastballs and breaking balls to swing at, he’s barreling up almost twice as many balls as he did in 2023.
These are all knock-on results of the massive information. The massive information is straightforward: Riley Greene has slashed his chase charge in opposition to breaking pitches and determined to cease chasing fastballs totally. That’s why he’s strolling extra, and that’s enormous. Even when he by no means figures out the best way to cease chasing changeups, that is an enchancment. Nevertheless, we’ve nonetheless obtained just a few extra days left in April, so I’m legally obligated to finish by throwing some chilly water on all the pieces I simply informed you. Check out the 15-game rolling common of Greene’s stroll and chase charges.
In each 2022 and 2023, Greene began out passive, after which obtained extra aggressive over the subsequent couple weeks. Presumably he’ll begin swinging extra sooner or later, and presumably Soto will ease again into pole place. However even when Greene’s aggression goes all the way in which again to his profession norms, it’s positively encouraging that he’s displaying higher pitch recognition and a greater understanding of the strike zone. It wouldn’t be the worst factor on the earth for Greene to get a few of his previous aggression again, particularly if he can preserve any of the beneficial properties he’s displayed prior to now month.