Hey, These Padres Are Nonetheless Fairly Good

Relationship again to August 31, 2023, the Padres have the very best report in baseball. They’ve the second-highest run differential in that point, trailing solely the Brewers, towards whom they only took two out of three on the street. To be clear, these are enjoyable info for the jumbotron slightly than significant or predictive metrics. In any case, the Padres of late 2023 look fairly a bit completely different from the Padres of early 2024, and their efficiency from final September is doing many of the heavy lifting. Even so, it’s sufficient to make you cease and suppose, “Hey, these Padres are nonetheless fairly good!”

That’s to not say the Padres ever seemed like a foul crew. Nonetheless, it might have been simple to jot down them off, a minimum of subconsciously, after final 12 months’s disappointing efficiency and the offseason that adopted. The Padres ranked second within the NL in pitching WAR and third in place participant WAR final season, but they completed simply 82-80. And though they have been in a position to safe a profitable report on the ultimate day of the common season, they actually misplaced greater than they gained over the winter. As their three greatest rivals within the NL West added six of our high 9 free brokers (and 10 of our high 21), the Padres misplaced their greatest hitter (Juan Soto), their nearer (Josh Hader), their ace (Blake Snell), and three extra succesful arms from the rotation (Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez), all whereas slashing payroll by almost $90 million.

It’s not that they have been punting on the 2024 season. The Padres bought again 4 gamers with MLB expertise within the Soto commerce (righty starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Higashioka, and right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez) and later flipped the ultimate piece (righty Drew Thorpe) as a part of the package deal for his or her new high pitcher, Dylan Stop. In addition they signed two notable free agent relievers (lefties Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta) to hitch Brito, fellow commerce acquisition Enyel De Los Santos, and Rule 5 draft choose Stephen Kolek in a new-look bullpen. (San Diego additionally signed righty reliever Woo-Suk Go from the KBO, however he struggled in spring coaching, did not make the Opening Day roster, and is presently pitching in aid with Double-A San Antonio.)

Nonetheless, the Padres have been by no means going to make up for all they misplaced whereas concurrently resetting their luxurious tax penalties. Thus, San Diego was inconceivable to disregard over the winter but simple to miss because the season started. Groups that lose a generational celebrity, a multiple-time Cy Younger winner, and a stud nearer after an 82-win season usually don’t issue into the playoff race the next 12 months. However who would ever name the Padres regular?

Our playoff odds presently offers the Padres a 46.2% likelihood to make the postseason, and so they have the third-highest odds (35.3%) to safe a Nationwide League Wild Card berth, trailing solely the Phillies (52.9%) and Diamondbacks (36.2%). The race stays vast open, with the Mets, Giants, and whoever doesn’t win the NL Central additionally within the working. San Diego is just one recreation above .500, however at this level within the season, that’s an 85-win tempo. There’s a whole lot of season left to play, however as issues stand, the Padres are in fairly fine condition.

Take into account this: Regardless of dropping Soto, the Padres have had no hassle scoring runs. Wednesday marked the primary time they’ve been shut out this season. The lineup is averaging 5.2 runs per recreation, and its 113 wRC+ ranks fourth within the Nationwide League.

The most important contributor has been precisely the person who wanted to be the largest contributor: Fernando Tatis Jr. After a dismal second half to the 2023 season (86 wRC+), he entered the 2024 marketing campaign all out of excuses. To date, he hasn’t wanted any. His 148 wRC+ is paying homage to his numbers from his first three seasons. Though he hasn’t hit for fairly as a lot energy as he did from 2019-21, Tatis already has set a brand new profession excessive in most exit velocity (116.7 mph). Furthermore, he’s whiffing lower than ever, and his strikeout charge is considerably beneath common for the primary time in his profession.

Jake Cronenworth is in the course of a bounce-back season as effectively, with a 125 wRC+ by 19 video games. If Tatis seems like his outdated self, then Cronenworth seems like a complete new man. After posting a meager .301 wOBA and an equally unimposing .305 xwOBA final 12 months, Cronenworth is tearing the quilt off the ball in 2024. His 44.1% hard-hit charge is a profession excessive, as is his 15.3% barrel charge (9 barrels on 59 batted balls). Even higher, he’s hitting the ball effectively with out sacrificing his elite contact abilities or plus plate self-discipline. It nonetheless seems like a little bit of a waste to have a succesful second baseman enjoying a easier place, but when Cronenworth retains hitting like this, his bat will play at first. He’s presently day-to-day with a light leg harm however shouldn’t be out for lengthy.

As an added bonus, Jurickson Profar can be off to an exceptional begin. Whereas historical past and customary sense inform us this gained’t final endlessly, it’s laborious to search out a lot fault along with his early season efficiency. His .341 xwOBA isn’t jaw-dropping like his .394 wOBA, however it’s nonetheless a profession excessive. No one expects Profar to go shot for shot with Tatis all season, but when he may be even only a league-average bat going ahead, that might be a serious enhance for the Padres.

Along with these three bounce-back candidates, San Diego is having fun with the beginning of a breakout season from heart fielder Jackson Merrill. Whereas his .396 BABIP is unsustainable, the 20-year-old’s contact abilities look nearly as good as marketed. Like lots of his fellow Padres, he’s putting out at a effectively below-average charge. He hasn’t tapped into a lot of his uncooked energy, however Merrill has knocked his fair proportion of hard-hit singles en path to a 140 wRC+. Most significantly, he hasn’t seemed overmatched towards large league pitching.

The one hitter within the Padres lineup who has been really disappointing up to now is Xander Bogaerts. The newly minted second baseman is hitting an abysmal .200/.273/.263 with a 60 wRC+, worst amongst hitters on San Diego’s lively roster. It’s far too early to stress over the five-time Silver Slugger, who has been persistently glorious on the plate since 2018. That mentioned, the crew will want him to bust out of his droop ultimately to select up the slack when Profar inevitably regresses. Fortunately for the Padres, if historical past suggests Profar’s wRC+ will drop by about 50 factors, they will count on Bogaerts’ to extend by the identical quantity.

Contemplating that Manny Machado had offseason elbow surgical procedure and returned to the lineup in time for Opening Day, the Padres ought to actually be happy that his offensive numbers are nonetheless above common (118 wRC+) and proper in keeping with his efficiency from final season. His .302 xwOBA is regarding, however his hard-hit and barrel charges are the very best they’ve been since 2021. The issue is he’s drilling balls into the bottom at a a lot greater charge (54.8%) than ever earlier than — his profession groundball charge is 41.7% — although we should always count on his batted-ball profile to return to regular because the season progresses and he will get additional faraway from the harm, which up to now has restricted him to DH responsibility. He’s anticipated to return to 3rd base by the top of April, however it stays unclear when he’ll be prepared for an on a regular basis position within the discipline. Regardless, the Padres shall be higher off along with his glove at third and extra flexibility from the DH spot.

To that time, the newly signed Donovan Solano might get loads of reps at DH as soon as Machado returns to 3rd. Solano may also play all three bases, giving supervisor Mike Shildt loads of flexibility in the case of his infield alignment. Now 36 years outdated, Solano will not be a plus defender wherever however first, however he has been an above-average hitter for the previous 5 seasons (112 wRC+ since 2019). When he’s prepared for MLB motion, he can supply the Padres one other succesful bat on the backside of a deep lineup. With Solano changing the present third base platoon of Tyler Wade and Eguy Rosario, the Padres would have eight hitters within the order with a projected rest-of-season wRC+ of a minimum of 100. The one exception is Merrill, who up to now looks as if a robust candidate to surpass his Fiftieth-percentile projections:

Apparently sufficient, though the Soto commerce was the prevailing story of San Diego’s offseason, the crew in the end misplaced extra expertise on the pitching facet. Snell, Lugo, Wacha, and Martinez began 91 video games in 2023, accounting for 58% of the rotation’s innings and 71% of its WAR. The Padres additionally misplaced a ton of arms from the bullpen. Along with Hader, they parted with Scott Barlow, Luis García, and the aforementioned Martinez; on high of his 9 begins, Martinez led the crew in aid innings final season.

Unsurprisingly, A.J. Preller pursued pitching this winter, including Stop and King as cheaper options to a number of the starters the Padres misplaced. The crew was additionally relying on full seasons from Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, who made a mixed 41 begins in 2023. You’ll be able to see how it might make sense in principle: Stop would change Snell, King would change Lugo, and an additional 20 begins from Musgrove and Darvish would change Wacha. If all have been to go based on plan, that might be a reasonably robust rotation, even with out a clear fifth starter. Certainly, the Padres ranked seventh on our beginning pitching positional energy rankings this 12 months.

How is that plan figuring out up to now? Stop has been glorious over his first 4 begins. His fastball velocity is up, and he has pitched to a 1.99 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 22.2 IP. His xERA and xFIP look extra like his numbers from final season than his star-making 2022 marketing campaign, however that’s not such a foul factor. He was nonetheless a 3.7-WAR pitcher over 33 begins in 2023. Moreover, with Petco Park and the Padres protection to assist maintain his BABIP down, his ERA ought to drop considerably from final 12 months’s 4.58 mark. In the meantime, King has been inconsistent, with two good begins hidden amongst three clunkers. He must cease issuing so many free passes (15 walks in 27 innings), however the two gems he has already thrown present that he can nonetheless be the dominant arm he was down the stretch final season.

Sadly, Musgrove has been one thing of a catastrophe, whereas Darvish is displaying his age. By means of 5 begins, Musgrove has a 6.29 ERA and a 5.13 FIP; his strikeout charge is low (7.40 Okay/9), his stroll charge is excessive (4.07 BB/9), and his velocity is down a tick. He has added horizontal motion to his slider and he’s throwing it extra typically after scaling again on the breaking pitch final season. Nonetheless, opposing hitters have been all around the remainder of his arsenal, hitting for a .433 wOBA (.471 xwOBA) towards all different pitches. Darvish has been stable by 5 begins of his personal, however most of his underlying numbers are a little bit worse than typical, and he simply landed on the IL with neck tightness. There’s no motive to concern the worst, however Darvish, 37, may simply be on the level in his profession the place we’ve to count on a sluggish decline and nagging accidents.

That would spell an issue for a Padres crew working low on beginning pitching depth. Matt Waldron has seemed like a succesful back-end starter over his first three outings, however the knuckleballer is already one thing of a wild card, and the choices behind him are uninspiring. Pedro Avila was DFA’d, Brito hasn’t pitched effectively out of the bullpen this 12 months, and Vásquez is struggling at Triple-A. The Padres rotation was so profitable final season not simply due to its high contributors however due to its depth. That gained’t be the case in 2024.

In the meantime, the largest downside within the bullpen is the shortage of high-end expertise. Robert Suarez is San Diego’s solely reliever with nice stuff and a giant league observe report. Matsui has large potential however must show himself, whereas Peralta has a historical past of success however poor peripherals and pitching modeling numbers. De Los Santos presently leads the bullpen in FIP and WAR, however that’s simply additional affirmation that this group would look lots higher if everybody have been pushed down a spot.

Finally, the pitching employees will make or break this season for the Padres. The offense seems robust (Wednesday’s shutout loss apart), and the protection ought to be formidable with Tatis in proper, Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop, and a wholesome Machado again on the scorching nook. The rotation, then again, is filled with questions from high to backside. What’s extra, the Padres lack the bullpen to compensate when their starters wrestle and the depth to compensate if their starters get damage. San Diego’s playoff odds are rather less than a coin flip proper now, and that feels about proper. Heads, the important thing members of the rotation keep wholesome and carry out as anticipated. Tails, the Padres are left on the surface trying in as soon as once more.