So Far, Michael Busch Has Been a Large Hit for the Cubs

Developing by means of the Dodgers system, Michael Busch gained a fame as “a bat-only prospect,” a participant whose offensive abilities far outpaced his defensive ones. So when the Dodgers landed Shohei Ohtani in December, it closed the door on the crew discovering room for Busch as a DH, they usually had been already set at first base — Busch’s primary place in school — with Freddie Freeman within the fold. Busch wanted a commerce to clear his path, and in January he obtained one, a four-player cope with the Cubs. To this point, the 26-year-old rookie is off to a flying begin, rating excessive on the leaderboards after reeling off a streak of 5 consecutive video games with a house run.

Busch’s streak, which ended on Tuesday evening in Arizona, came about through the Cubs’ nine-game western street journey, starting with a game-tying two-run homer off the Padres’ Dylan Stop at Petco Park on April 10. Two days later in Seattle, he went deep off the Mariners’ Ryne Stanek. The Cubs misplaced each of these video games, however he helped them win three straight, beginning with a solo shot off Tyson Miller within the seventh inning of a 4-1 win Saturday evening, then a two-run homer off Luis Castillo within the fourth inning of a 3-2 win on Sunday. Shifting on to Arizona, he didn’t waste any time, connecting off Merrill Kelly in his first plate look of Monday’s sport, an 11-inning, 3-2 win.

These weren’t cheapies. All however the Miller shot had projected distances of 405 toes or longer, with the Castillo one main the best way at 437 toes. The house run off Kelly wouldn’t have gone out at Oracle Park, based on Statcast, however it might have been out on the different 29, and the opposite 4 homers would have been out in any respect 30 ballparks.

Busch was unable to increase his streak in a wild 12-11, 10-inning loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, although in his first plate look, his loud foul ball off Tommy Henry into the left subject nook missed being honest — and excessive sufficient — by only a few toes. On the subsequent pitch, Busch hit a 94-mph warning observe fly ball to left subject, and within the sixth he added a 95-mph warning observe fly to left heart. He drew a stroll off Kyle Nelson amid a four-run rally within the seventh, however struck out twice, as soon as in opposition to Henry within the third, and once more versus Miguel Castro within the ninth.

Busch is the fifth Cub with a house run streak of at the very least 5 video games, however the second inside the previous 12 months:

The foremost league file for consecutive video games with a homer is eight, shared by the Pirates’ Dale Lengthy (1956), the Yankees’ Don Mattingly (1987), and the Mariners’ Ken Griffey Jr. (1993). Six different gamers have reached seven, all of them on this millennium, with Joey Votto (2021) and Mike Trout (2022) the newest. Busch is the primary rookie to homer in 5 straight video games because the Pink Sox’s Bobby Dalbec from Septmeber 5–10, 2020, and the a centesimal participant to homer in at the very least 5 straight video games through the Wild Card period.

Together with his homer off the Dodgers’ Dinelson Lamet on April 5, Busch is now tied for fourth within the majors with six, behind Trout, Tyler O’Neill, and Marcell Ozuna, all with seven. He’s hitting .304/.394/.679, trailing solely Ozuna and Mookie Betts in slugging share amongst Nationwide League qualifiers; his 183 wRC+ is fifth.

That is all a best-case state of affairs for Busch, who spent 5 seasons within the Dodgers group earlier than the Cubs acquired him together with reliever Yency Almonte on January 11 in trade for 2 prospects, 20-year-old lefty Jackson Ferris and 19-year-old outfielder Zyhir Hope. The Dodgers drafted Busch with the thirty first decide in 2019 out of the College of North Carolina, the place he had starred as a primary baseman and left fielder. Developing by means of the minors, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound lefty swinger and righty thrower performed largely second base with a smattering of left subject till final 12 months, when he performed extra third base than second. Given his plus energy and an above-average hit device, he appeared like a participant with an enormous league future as he climbed the ladder. He made the FanGraphs High 100 Prospects checklist 4 occasions as a 50 FV prospect, rating eighty fifth in 2021, 79th in ’22, forty sixth final 12 months, and 84th this 12 months; he was effectively represented on different publications’ High 100s as effectively. Right here’s Eric Longenhagen on his bat final 12 months:

“His energy on contact is phenomenal, and regardless that his hit device has appeared extra common than above as he’s traversed the minors, the mix of energy and endurance right here belongs within the coronary heart of an enormous league order. Busch’s swing is easy however nonetheless athletic and explosive. His arms work with pure elevate, however Busch retains their path quick and on time, and he can transfer the barrel everywhere in the zone… [H]e is likely one of the extra well-rounded near-ready bats within the minors…”

The knock on Busch was his protection, which Longenhagen graded as a 30/35 (with a 40 throw) in 2021 and ’22, writing within the latter 12 months, “Scouts who’ve had an prolonged have a look at him assume he may ultimately be satisfactory at second base, however positively not good, very similar to Tommy La Stella.” Longenhagen dropped his grades to twenty/20 (with a 30 throw) final 12 months, writing partially, “[H]e has no defensive place (Busch’s points at second base transcend simply vary, and he isn’t a match there it doesn’t matter what the foundations round shifting are).” Different shops have been solely barely extra charitable, with Baseball America writing, “[H]is lack of vary makes him a legal responsibility with out the assistance of a shift. He’s a below-average runner who lacks quickness and agility and is a below-average defender on the keystone,” and MLB Pipeline noting that “the sport accelerates on him on the scorching nook.”

Busch spent most of 2022 and ’23 at Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, and hit a scorching .323/.431/.618 (150 wRC+) with 27 homers there final 12 months en path to the Pacific Coast League MVP award, that whereas enjoying 61 video games at third base, 25 at second, seven at first and two in left subject. Notably, he refined his method on the plate, slicing his strikeout charge from about 26% in each 2021 and ’22 to 18.8% in ’23.

Simply as notably, the Dodgers didn’t put Busch into the massive membership’s infield combine after Gavin Lux tore his ACL throughout final 12 months’s spring coaching, as an alternative going primarily with Miguel Vargas after which Betts at second base, however he did get his first main league motion in three temporary stretches with the Dodgers. Initially referred to as up in late April when Max Muncy went on paternity go away, he caught round to play seven video games in a span of simply over two weeks, then returned for 10 days in June when Muncy landed on the IL with a hamstring pressure, and got here again as soon as extra in August when J.D. Martinez was sidelined by a groin pressure. Amid these three stints, which respectively lasted 23, 28, and 30 plate appearances, he hit simply .167/.247/.292 (49 wRC+) with two homers and a 33.3% strikeout charge. Defensively, he performed 13 video games at third base and eight at DH, with temporary cameos of 10 innings or much less at first, second, and in left subject.

It was an inauspicious debut, however hardly a good illustration of Busch’s capabilities, and when the crew changed Martinez with Ohtani, the writing was on the wall so far as his organizational future was involved. The Cubs acquired him with the intention of attempting him at first base, although the re-signing of the versatile Cody Bellinger — who performed 59 video games at first final 12 months — plus the late-February addition of first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper and the pending arrival of heart subject prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong made it clear that Busch must produce or threat getting misplaced amid a number of shifting elements.

To this point, so good. Whereas 66 PA and 39 batted ball occasions each represent samples sufficiently small that the majority of Busch’s stats haven’t stabilized, we will at the very least be aware that virtually every little thing that may be measured has improved by at the very least a couple of share factors. He’s swinging a bit much less usually (down from 47.6% to 44.7%), chasing outdoors the zone much less usually (down from 30.8% to 25.7%), making extra contact within the zone (up from 83.3% to 87.4%), and has minimize his strikeout charge to a still-high 27.3%. When he’s made contact, he’s hitting the ball a lot more durable:

Word the massive enhance in launch angle. Busch usually hit solely barely extra grounders than flies all through his minor league profession, however final 12 months he had a 58.7% groundball charge and a 1.80 GB/FB ratio within the majors. The pendulum has swung within the different path, as he now has a 23.1% groundball charge and a 0.45 GB/FB ratio — a very good reminder that we’re coping with restricted knowledge. Combining his 2023 and ’24 knowledge, his general 42.4% groundball charge and 1.03 GB/FB ratio bear a a lot nearer resemblance to his minor league knowledge.

With the pattern dimension in thoughts, Busch’s 15.1-point bounce in barrel charge is the highest amongst participant with at the very least 50 PA in each seasons, forward of Bobby Witt Jr.’s 13.5-point bounce; in the meantime, his 4.4-mph bounce in common exit velocity is eighth. His xSLG trails solely Ryan O’Hearn and Witt, and he’s fourth in barrel charge.

On the threat of squinting too exhausting on the teensy quantities of information we’ve obtained, the opposite factor that stands out is that final 12 months Busch was overwhelmed by four-seam fastballs, hitting .091, slugging .136, and placing out 12 occasions in 26 PA that ended with heaters. This 12 months, he’s obtained a .304 AVG, a .652 SLG, and 5 strikeouts in 25 PA ending with four-seamers. On the Cubs’ broadcast on Tuesday evening, he was quoted as conceding that his timing was off relating to fastballs final 12 months. Cubs hitting coach Dustin Kelly chalked that up to his not seeing that degree of velocity at Triple-A, including that now, “He is ready to time up a fastball, the pitcher’s greatest fastball.”

Seventeen video games into the season, all of those numbers are at greatest early indicators that Busch is at house within the majors as projected. To this point, no one’s lodged any complaints about his protection, both. With the lack of Seiya Suzuki to an indirect pressure, there will likely be extra stress on Busch to proceed driving the offense and help the Cubs’ 10-7 begin, however to date he’s been as much as the duty.