One other Orioles Rookie Is Going Berserk. Can He Keep Berserk?

The Orioles’ gifted younger hitter, a former top-five choose, was simply named AL Participant of the Week. No, not that one. Or that one. Or the opposite one. Colton Cowser, the no. 5 general choose in 2021 out of Sam Houston State, went 10-for-23 with 4 dwelling runs throughout the six video games in query, and within the course of grew to become the primary Oriole to drive in 10 runs in a single collection at Fenway Park.

That’s a reasonably strong week on the workplace, should you ask me. The Orioles have been taking part in collection at Fenway Park for greater than 70 years, and in that point no one had ever pushed in 10 runs in a single collection — a three-game collection, no much less!

To not fall into not one however two small-sample traps, however Cowser’s sizzling begin to 2024 couldn’t be in starker distinction to his first main league motion, on the finish of final season:

Clearly, no one actually thinks Cowser goes to maintain slugging .800 for the remainder of the season. Any participant can put up any stat line over two weeks. Simply to offer one other instance of a regression candidate from the identical outfield, I’d count on Cowser’s numbers to say no as considerably as I’d count on Austin Hays’ numbers to go up.

However since I’m speaking about Hays, Cowser’s emergence places the Orioles in an fascinating spot. Baltimore has both present or potential superstars at catcher and the 2 center infield positions; Cedric Mullins is fairly properly entrenched in heart discipline. However at first base, DH, and the nook outfield positions — i.e., the place Cowser is more likely to play — the Orioles are good, however not nice.

I’d put it this fashion: Hays, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, and Ryan Mountcastle all posted a wRC+ of 110 or higher in no less than 300 PA final 12 months. They’re all ok to maintain Cowser out of the lineup if he slips, and so they’re well-entrenched. Hays and Santander are the 2 longest-tenured Orioles, each having debuted with the staff in 2017, and Mountcastle — one other homegrown participant — has been the starter at first base since 2021. However getting into 2024, these 4 gamers had appeared in no less than a part of 23 particular person seasons within the main leagues, and haven’t a single 3-WAR season to point out for it.

And it’s not simply Cowser demanding to toss his hat within the ring for one in all these jobs; Heston Kjerstad lastly made it to the majors final 12 months and as of this writing has a .361/.438/.770 slash line in Triple-A. His Norfolk teammate, Kyle Stowers, is slugging .667. Finally, the Orioles are going to need to discover a spot for Coby Mayo. And if that spot is third base, meaning discovering a brand new dwelling for Jordan Westburg.

Suffice it to say, the Orioles are dealing with down the beginnings of a logjam. Santander is a free agent after this season, Mountcastle after 2025, however as a lot as this group of gamers cries out for consolidation via a commerce, it’d be fairly heartless to ship off Santander and/or Mountcastle now. Even for Mike Elias’ Orioles.

To date, Brandon Hyde is doing his greatest to juggle his 5 nook guys. By Baltimore’s first 16 video games, Mountcastle and Santander have made 15 appearances, all begins. Hays and Cowser have each gotten into 15 video games and O’Hearn 13, via a mix of begins throughout varied positions and pinch-hitting appearances.

So what can Cowser do to pressure his manner via completely?

Swing-and-miss has all the time been an issue for Cowser. Final 12 months, he posted a 30.0% whiff charge in Triple-A, which was 253rd out of 348 batters who swung at 400 or extra pitches at that degree. However when he made contact, it was arduous contact. Cowser posted a 47.5% hard-hit charge, thirty third amongst 463 batters who put no less than 100 balls in play. He additionally walked 16.0% of the time, and whereas his general numbers had been inflated by a .390 BABIP, you may get away with swinging and lacking loads — even placing out loads — should you can draw a stroll and hit the ball arduous once you do make contact.

In comparison with final 12 months, Cowser is definitely placing out extra and strolling much less on the main league degree. The largest distinction up to now is his BABIP — .500 this 12 months, via Monday, versus .175 in 2023. And certainly, a few Cowser’s hits have been cheapos. My favourite is that this ball he hit off the top of his bat, straight into the bottom, solely to observe it roll completely parallel to the third bottom line, beneath Maikel Garcia’s glove, and all the way in which out to left discipline for a double:

That mentioned, if I had been a ballplayer and a genie gave me the selection between the power to hit 50 homers a 12 months and the power to do that on command, I’d in all probability choose door no. 2. The seeing-eye base hit in opposition to the shift (ish, these days) is such an invigorating play to observe.

However except Cowser has all of the sudden been possessed by the spirit of English snooker legend Ronnie O’Sullivan, he’s going to wish to tackle a extra orthodox method. And certainly, even his inflated BABIP doesn’t bear in mind 4 dwelling runs in his first 42 plate appearances, which is in the identical ballpark as Sammy Sosa’s 1998 season when it comes to HR/PA:

So whether or not you wish to name it luck, or simply seeing the ball properly, Cowser is white-hot in the intervening time. If he’s nonetheless seeing the ball this properly in six months’ time — which is unlikely — Cowser ought to really feel snug selecting out an outfit for his look on MLB Community as he’s named the AL MVP.

In additional practical phrases, the factor I’m most interested by going ahead is whether or not his extraordinarily low chase charge manifests as selectivity or passivity. A chase charge beneath 20% is already fairly particular; in additional than 2,000 certified hitter seasons since 2010, solely about one in 10 encompasses a chase charge that low. Knock that quantity down beneath 17%, the place Cowser is as of this writing, and also you’re speaking about one in 100. Lots of the seasons with chase charges in that vary got here from guys named Soto and Votto. (And likewise the odd Daric Barton, for these of you who would possibly take pleasure in remembering some guys.)

Can Cowser hold his eye sharp as pitchers modify to him hitting like a cross between Jimmie Foxx and Frank Thomas? And if that’s the case, is that as a result of he’s good at figuring out hittable pitches, or simply as a result of he’s not swinging at something. And if that is the case, how lengthy till pitchers simply begin feeding him strikes — figuring out his in-zone contact charge hasn’t been that nice both — and that strikeout charge climbs even additional?

Unseating a longtime starter isn’t simple, however profitable AL Participant of the Week is an efficient technique to get your foot within the door. Now Cowser has to show he deserves to remain within the lineup long-term.