A brand new entry to the red-hot school basketball switch portal on Monday, DJ Wagner was probably the most adorned highschool gamers within the nationwide class of 2023. He was the primary participant to carry the No. 1 general rating and spent extra time with that high spot than another participant within the class, regardless of ending No. 6 general within the ultimate rankings.
Wagner was additionally the main target of arguably the category’ most infamous recruiting battle. Wagner was thought of a digital lock for Kentucky, given his household’s historical past with John Calipari, from the time he first debuted in highschool. That each one modified, although, when Louisville employed former Calipari lieutenant Kenny Payne, and he, in flip, added Wagner’s grandfather, Milt Wagner, to his teaching employees.
Some 23 years earlier, it was Calipari who employed Milt at Memphis as a mechanism to safe a dedication from Milt’s son, DaJuan Wagner. Now that very same technique was getting used in opposition to Calipari to drag DJ, DaJuan’s son, away from what appeared like an inevitable Kentucky dedication. After all, the plan by no means fairly got here to fruition, as Calipari and Kentucky prevailed, touchdown a dedication from Wagner whereas he was additionally awarded a NIL deal immediately from Nike.
What was clear to all those that had adopted Calipari over time was that Wagner was going to have each alternative to achieve success whereas enjoying at Kentucky. Thus, it was not a shock to see him beginning and enjoying extra minutes than fellow freshman guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, at the same time as they clearly outplayed him.
Because the season went on, although, and it grew to become more and more tough to disclaim who was having the larger affect for the Wildcats, the dynamics started to shift. Sheppard was inserted into the beginning lineup late within the season. Dillingham continued to come back off the bench behind Wagner, however his minutes and utilization each continued to rise.
Lower than one month after the season got here to an premature finish within the first spherical of the NCAA Match, John Calipari is the pinnacle coach at Arkansas, Dillingham has declared for the draft, and Sheppard is presumably set to observe given a projected spot within the lottery.
And Wagner? He is within the portal after averaging 9.9 factors on 40.5% taking pictures from the ground, 29% taking pictures from three, 3.3 assists, and 1.9 rebounds per recreation.
No matter whether or not it is at Kentucky, Arkansas, or a brand new location altogether, what does DJ Wagner must do to regain the shape he confirmed as a teen?
It is a multifaceted reply, layered with variables together with his outdoors taking pictures, decision-making, and tempo of play. Most significantly, he must get his confidence again.
When Wagner was a highschool underclassman, he already had the burden of expectations. He was DaJuan Wagner’s son, coming again to revitalize the highschool program that his father had as soon as made recognized nationally. And but, he was measured and had a quiet confidence about the best way he performed and carried out himself.
Quick ahead a few years, and whether or not it was the burden of his recruitment or different components, by the point Wagner entered the summer season earlier than his senior 12 months, there was a special tempo about his recreation. He was at all times somebody who performed in assault mode, however now, it was like he was caught in first gear and did not know easy methods to change speeds. Whether or not it was with USA Basketball and even within the EYBL, he was much less environment friendly than ever earlier than, and thus not in a position to evolve into the purpose guard, and even lead guard, as soon as hoped. His taking pictures had change into a extra frequent speaking level and the hitch in his launch could be much more pronounced. On high of all that, he was extra visibly annoyed and emotional on the ground than he had ever been earlier than.
These traits largely endured into his freshman season at Kentucky. He shot simply 29% from behind the arc and made fewer 3-pointers on the 12 months than nearly everybody else within the lineup. Whereas he put up a greater than two-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio, it got here predominantly off the ball, as the first playmaking obligations typically went to Dillingham and Sheppard, particularly because the season went on. He grew to become hesitant to shoot and but overeager to assault, all on the identical time.
The numbers bore this out as effectively, as he ranked in simply the twenty first percentile as a spot-up shooter per Synergy Sports activities, and the forty third percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.
So, sure, Wagner must shoot the ball extra constantly from the three-point line. He must study to decelerate and decide his spots in order that when he does make the most of his pace and burst to assault, he can higher weaponize a change of tempo. He could by no means be a real level guard, but when he can get to a degree the place he can reliably deal with extra on-ball reps, that may assist to rehabilitate his inventory as effectively.
However confidence, and by extension rhythm, are key to only about all of that. In brief, he must get his swag again and, in so doing, let the sport come to him just a bit bit extra.
Wagner could even profit from extra latitude within the mid-range space, as he tried simply 16 photographs in that vary all season lengthy, per Pivot Evaluation. Whereas in highschool, his pull-ups and floaters have been an enormous a part of his scoring arsenal when he was enjoying strictly on intuition, which generally correlated to probably the most assured model of himself.
If he can do these issues whereas persevering with to claim himself as an impactful defender and elite competitor who can raise the vitality degree and can to win of these round him, one thing he was typically credited for in highschool, there may be nonetheless a path for Wagner to have the affect that many anticipated in school basketball and finally past.
However which may be the ultimate key. If it was the stress of his standing or the related expectations that lastly began to catch as much as him, possibly a very powerful factor he can do for his profession is to take it one step at a time. In different phrases, one of the simplest ways to assist his long-term NBA inventory could also be to neglect concerning the NBA for now and be the very best school participant he may be. The reality is that is what he did for many of his highschool profession. There have been at all times questions on how his bodily instruments and high-volume strategy would finally translate to the very best ranges, however he was so constantly productive and impactful, it was onerous to assume he would not discover a approach to hold doing it. That is precisely who he must be once more. The participant who centered completely on the place he’s proper now and hopefully will get his confidence again within the course of.
The truth that he is keen to place his title within the portal and discover getting it proper on the school degree earlier than sticking to an outdated one-and-done plan is a superb indication that he could also be keen to just do that.