On the heels of a 101-loss season and a commerce of Dylan Stop, it was fairly obvious that the White Sox could be dangerous this 12 months. Thus far, nonetheless, they’ve been even worse than that, dropping 10 of their first 12 video games to turn out to be the primary AL staff whose Playoff Odds have reached zero. Including to that insult, they’ve already misplaced Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert Jr., and Yoán Moncada — the three gamers who projected to be their most dear — to accidents, sadly an all-too-common prevalence in the case of every of them. It’s going to be an extended season on the South Facet.
Probably the most extreme of the accidents is that of Moncada, and woof, it not solely seemed dangerous however it might mark the top of his run with the White Sox, one which has actually contained its share of highs and lows. Whereas operating out a grounder within the second inning of Tuesday’s recreation in opposition to the Guardians, he all of the sudden began limping about midway down the road, then stumbled and crumpled to the bottom earlier than reaching first base, writhing in agony earlier than being tended to by head athletic coach James Kruk. “After I was operating down the road, it felt like one thing broke. Actually, that was the worst ache I’ve felt in my profession,” Moncada instructed reporters by way of an interpreter on Wednesday.
Moncada was recognized with a strained left adductor, one of many muscle mass of the interior thigh, and sure, this might be a recurring theme. You don’t need to consider in jinxes to cringe at the truth that within the pregame media session earlier than Moncada’s damage, supervisor Pedro Grifol instructed reporters that the 28-year-old third baseman had been coping with a nagging hip/adductor damage for 3 or 4 days, including, “He’s doing a very good job sustaining it.” Thus a minor damage has turn out to be a significant one; the staff introduced that Moncada’s estimated restoration time is three to 6 months. In a best-case state of affairs, that will place his return across the begin of the second half, whereas in a worst-case one, he may not make it again onto the sphere once more this season.
Moncada is already coming off a pair of injury-wracked seasons that took a major toll on his efficiency. After hitting for a 120 wRC+ with 3.7 WAR in 144 video games in 2021, he slipped to a 76 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 104 video games in ’22, lacking 5 weeks attributable to an indirect pressure after which 10 days for strains in every hamstring. He rebounded barely in 2023, hitting .260/.305/.425 (98 wRC+) with 1.1 WAR, however nonetheless performed simply 92 video games, lacking over 10 weeks attributable to a pair of IL stints for decrease again irritation. He was off to an excellent begin this season, hitting .282/.364/.410 (127 wRC+) whereas displaying improved plate self-discipline by means of his first 44 plate appearances.
He’s now within the ultimate assured season of the five-year, $70 million extension he signed in March 2020, making $24 million this 12 months with a $25 million membership possibility and $5 million buyout for 2025. Given the traits of his efficiency and Chicago’s payroll — which declined from $193 million in 2022 to $177 million to ’23 to $148 million this season as each the previous and new regimes have stripped the roster for elements — it’s unlikely the staff would have picked up his possibility. Extra doubtless, basic supervisor Chris Getz would have seemed to commerce him this summer season in an effort to fortify a farm system that bought a shot within the arm final 12 months, rising from twenty seventh in projected future worth within the spring to twelfth later within the season.
Grifol mentioned the staff will rotate amongst a trio of gamers to fill in for Moncada, with 29-year-old lefty Nicky Lopez, 26-year-old lefty Braden Shewmake, and 24-year-old righty Lenyn Sosa all within the combine. None of them has hit a lick on the main league degree, with Lopez — who has began eight video games at second base and one at shortstop to date this 12 months — the very best of the bunch with a profession 72 wRC+ throughout greater than 1,900 PA; Sosa owns a 43 wRC+ by means of 224 PA, whereas Shewmake has a 50 wRC+, however solely 25 PA to date. Every of them is a large step down from Moncada, to say the least.
Robert isn’t anticipated to be out so long as Moncada, however his absence is depriving the White Sox of their lone All-Star from final 12 months and their most dynamic participant. The 26-year-old middle fielder left Chicago’s April 5 recreation after injuring himself operating out a double, and was recognized with a Grade-2 flexor pressure in his proper hip, the identical one during which he suffered a Grade-3 pressure in 2021. He missed about three and a half months that point, however this time round he’s solely anticipated to be out six to eight weeks, with “solely” doing lots of work right here.
The disgrace of it’s that Roberts is coming off the closest factor he’s needed to a full season shortly. His 145 video games performed final 12 months was the best whole of his 4 main league seasons, topping his 98 video games from 2022, when he made journeys to the IL for COVID-19, blurred imaginative and prescient, and a wrist sprain; the one different time he performed no less than 100 video games in a season was 2019, when he tallied 122 whereas rocketing by means of three ranges of the minors. Even because the staff collapsed round him final season, he put collectively an excellent marketing campaign, hitting 38 homers and stealing 20 bases whereas hitting .264/.315/.542 (128 wRC+) with 4.9 WAR. His slugging share and residential runs each positioned third within the American League, his wRC+ and WAR, eighth.
Robert was hitting simply .214/.241/.500 on the time of his damage, with a two-homer, three-hit, four-RBI recreation in opposition to the Tigers on March 30 accounting for the majority of his contributions. To this point in Robert’s absence, Grifol has shifted his proper discipline platoon over to middle. That pairing — 26-year-old lefty Dominic Fletcher and 35-year-old righty Kevin Pillar — together with varied different gamers in smaller roles positioned the White Sox twenty eighth in the precise discipline model of our preseason positional energy rankings. In the meantime, Robert drove their no. 5 rating amongst middle fielders, however together with his enjoying time decreased, he and his replacements have dropped to twelfth in our Depth Charts. Any individual should put up a warning signal: “Watch out for Falling Projections.”
As for Jiménez, he didn’t even make it to April, or to a spot within the outfield, earlier than getting harm. Within the season’s third recreation, on March 31, the 27-year-old slugger strained an adductor in his left leg whereas operating out an infield grounder and left the sport. This marks his fourth straight season with a visit to the IL; in 2021 he missed 4 months attributable to a torn pectoral tendon, in ’22 he misplaced two and a half months to a torn tendon in his proper knee, and in ’23 he was shelved 10 days for a left hamstring pressure, after which three weeks for an appendectomy. Jiménez nonetheless managed to play 120 video games final 12 months, his highest whole since his 2019 rookie season, however by means of his first 5 years, he performed in solely about 62% of Chicago’s video games.
Within the wake of final 12 months’s early-season accidents, the White Sox used Jiménez in proper discipline in simply 14 video games and DHed him 105 occasions. Holding him off the grass might be preferable given not solely his fragile state however his defensive metrics (-22 RAA, -18 DRS, -9.8 UZR in 2066.2 profession innings). That mentioned, a DH-only position locations much more stress on him to hit so as to be invaluable, and final 12 months’s .272/.317/.441 (104 wRC+) translated to simply 0.5 WAR, which doesn’t lower it. The excellent news is that Jiménez is on the mend, and will presumably return this weekend. In his absence, Gavin Sheets has gotten sizzling, batting .333/.455/.704 by means of 33 PA however [checks notes] none of our projections counsel he can keep that.
In our preseason projections, Robert (4.0 WAR), Moncada (2.4), and Jiménez (1.9) occupied the staff’s prime three spots, with Andrew Vaughn (1.6) and Andrew Benintendi (1.5) the one different place gamers above 1.0. In different phrases, with out this trio the Sox don’t have a single participant who initiatives to be common or higher within the lineup. These outages and this depressing begin — which incorporates the lowest-scoring offense within the majors, at 2.42 runs per recreation — have dropped their already-abysmal win projection from 66.3 as of Opening Day to 60.8. With the attainable exception of the times that Garrett Crochet begins — he’s bought a 2.00 ERA and a couple of.50 FIP by means of three turns — that is going to be an unwatchable staff no less than till Robert will get again.