How would the Norfolk Tides do in the event that they performed within the majors? Which may sound like an odd query, but it surely’s one which I’ve been requested 4 instances within the final week. It even got here up on Reddit. What’s driving this curiosity isn’t a sudden surge in rabid Tides fandom, however quite the heavy focus of offensive expertise the Orioles have in Norfolk, which till at the moment, included one of many favorites for AL Rookie of the Yr, Jackson Holliday. And since I’m one in every of a handful individuals with the precise instruments of nerdery to reply this question, I couldn’t let it go unanswered.
So, simply how good is Norfolk’s offensive expertise? Fairly darn good, truly. Of their first 10 video games, the Tides have scored double-digit runs six instances, together with a 26-11 drubbing of the Charlotte Knights on April 3. Holliday was the largest identify earlier than his call-up, however he was removed from alone down there. Of the greater than 400 gamers to have a plate look in Triple-A this season, solely three have a projection above 2 WAR (Jake Alu simply misses). Certainly one of them is Holliday. One other is Holliday’s teammate, Coby Mayo, one other high Orioles prospect. The third, Lars Nootbaar, doesn’t really matter, since he’s a longtime massive leaguer down there on a rehab project. After Holliday and Mayo, you then have a variety of gamers who will not be projected for two WAR, however are comfortably projected above alternative stage, such that they’d be helpful within the majors: Connor Norby, Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Nick Maton, Peyton Burdick, and Maverick Handley all undertaking above 0.5 WAR.
I don’t assume we actually want to match Triple-A groups to the good main league groups, however how do they evaluate to the worst the majors have to supply? The Marlins might need the worst file within the massive leagues, however the two groups we undertaking with below .400 rosters are the White Sox and Rockies. And what? Mixing within the preseason projections for hitters at Triple-A Norfolk and dealing with them off in opposition to these two cellar dwellers makes the Tides look surprisingly believable as a barely aggressive staff:
ZiPS Hitter Projections – Tides vs. Rockies vs. White Sox
Relating to offense, the Tides are comparatively aggressive in opposition to the White Sox and Rockies. It’s a strong group of hitters. What’s much less strong is the pitching, a comparatively skinny a part of Baltimore’s farm system — and the 2 most attention-grabbing prospects final 12 months, Grayson Rodriguez and DL Corridor, are not round to offer a lift:
ZiPS Pitcher Projections – Tides vs. Rockies vs. White Sox
Whereas a few of the Tides’ fringe arms match up nicely with the motley crew of Rockies and White Sox pitchers, the again finish of Norfolk’s pitching employees is much much less aggressive.
To get a closing quantity, I constructed a fictional league through which groups play all 30 main league groups 5 instances after which, for the lacking 12 video games, performed the AL groups yet another time, minus the White Sox, A’s, and Royals. Since this can be a simulation, I had the Rockies and White Sox play themselves in an effort to maintain the opponent combine an identical for all groups. For the Tides, I constructed a depth chart primarily based on their present roster, minus the rehabilitating John Means. Ultimately, the Rockies averaged 68 wins and the White Sox 60. As for the Tides, whereas they put up a combat in opposition to the Pale Hose and would beat them in some simulations (about 34% of the time), they solely averaged 56 wins. In different phrases, even once I let the Tides maintain Jackson Holliday — he was actually known as up as I used to be scripting this paragraph — they aren’t pretty much as good as any of the present massive league groups.
However are the Norfolk Tides even the correct staff to contemplate right here? To reply that query, I repeated the train I had simply finished with the Tides with the 29 different Triple-A groups as an alternative:
ZiPS Projected Wins – Triple-A Groups within the Majors
| Staff | Wins |
|---|---|
| Norfolk | 56.1 |
| Sacramento | 54.6 |
| Toledo | 53.4 |
| Worcester | 53.2 |
| Memphis | 52.9 |
| Nashville | 52.8 |
| Buffalo | 51.6 |
| Gwinnett | 51.3 |
| Reno | 50.7 |
| Indianapolis | 49.9 |
| Durham | 49.7 |
| Syracuse | 49.5 |
| Jacksonville | 49.2 |
| Columbus | 48.8 |
| Iowa | 48.4 |
| Rochester | 48.2 |
| Sugar Land | 47.6 |
| Spherical Rock | 47.3 |
| Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | 46.6 |
| Charlotte | 46.4 |
| St. Paul | 46.1 |
| Lehigh Valley | 45.8 |
| Omaha | 45.7 |
| Tacoma | 44.7 |
| Oklahoma Metropolis | 44.4 |
| El Paso | 43.8 |
| Las Vegas | 43.4 |
| Louisville | 42.4 |
| Salt Lake | 42.2 |
| Albuquerque | 38.6 |
Because it seems, the Tides are in truth the perfect projected minor league staff. Now, this shouldn’t essentially be thought of a farm system rating, as each minor league roster is populated with plenty of non-prospects. Whereas each Triple-A staff has a variety of gamers who’re believable main leaguers and generally even fairly respectable ones, when you get to, say, the seventh-best hitter or fifth-best pitcher, issues begin trying bleak, far more so even than with awful main league groups. The White Sox and Rockies could also be two of the worst groups within the majors, however within the massive image, they’re nonetheless fairly good at baseball.