Pink Sox Prolong Defensive Phenom Ceddanne Rafaela

A month after signing beginning pitcher Brayan Bello to a six-year extension, the Boston Pink Sox are at it once more, this time extending rookie middle fielder Ceddanne Rafaela on an eight-year deal price $50 million. If Rafaela sticks within the majors lengthy sufficient this season to earn a 12 months of service time, this extension will delay his free agent eligibility for 2 years; both approach, he’ll be paid a assured wage by the 2031 season.

How you are feeling about Rafaela comes down to simply what you concentrate on his protection. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin rated Rafaela as the one prospect on THE BOARD final 12 months with a 70 current worth for protection and the one one with a future worth of 80. They had been hardly alone of their reward for his glove, both, as different shops reminiscent of Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline additionally gave complimentary evaluations to his leathercraft.

Whereas prospect writers have sometimes missed on the eventual defensive efficiency of prospects – Gregory Polanco involves thoughts – Rafaela definitely hasn’t proven something in his restricted time within the majors that refutes these views. Measuring minor league protection, versus viewing it, is fraught with apparent peril, however the defensive estimates that ZiPS makes use of for minor leaguers additionally love his glove. ZiPS makes use of a Whole Zone-esque measure from Gameday hit areas, just like Sean Smith’s methodology from almost 15 years in the past. Sure, we’d want to have one thing like OAA or DRS and even UZR for minor leaguers publicly obtainable, however we don’t, so we now have to usually be extra conservative about conclusions drawn from the info. However for what it’s price, these estimates, which I name zDEF, had Rafaela as an elite defensive middle fielder within the minors in 2023.

By the way, zDEF had Rafaela at +3 as a shortstop whole for his minor league profession, so if the circumstances warranted it, it wouldn’t essentially be the craziest factor to see him comply with within the footsteps of one other former Pink Sox prospect, Mookie Betts, and transfer again to shortstop in some unspecified time in the future, although that definitely shouldn’t be why Boston signed Rafaela long run.

Let’s run the eight-year ZiPS for Rafaela.

All informed, ZiPS would fortunately provide him an eight-year, $67 million — $17 million greater than what the Pink Sox gave him.

One factor to think about: As long as Rafaela’s glove is superb, he doesn’t must take a giant offensive step ahead to be price his contract. ZiPS has Rafaela hitting for a skosh extra energy, sufficient to get his OPS+ and wRC+ into the 100 vary throughout his peak years, however not enough to make him a celebrity. Consequently, his projections hold him within the solidly above-average territory – he’ll possible have an All-Star look or two throughout an up 12 months – however comfortably under star standing. These offensive numbers make him barely higher offensively than the inevitable comp given for him, Jackie Bradley Jr., who put up a 93 OPS+ over elements of eight seasons in Boston and was just a few runs higher defensively than Rafaela’s projections. Suffice it to say, if ZiPS’s pure conservatism with minor league defensive numbers finally ends up lowballing Rafaela, he’d be a steal at this worth and put up WAR numbers within the vary of Kevin Kiermaier’s finest years.

As an offensive participant, Rafaela stays a piece in progress. In 9 video games this season getting into Tuesday, he’s hitting .233/.286/.400 with two triples and an 85 wRC+. He’s really gotten higher at making contact, going from a 69% contact charge at Triple-A final 12 months to 73% within the majors up to now. Admittedly, this enchancment has are available a small pattern — he’s made simply 124 large league plate appearances mixed between his 2023 late-season debut (72.1% contact in 89 PA) and this 12 months (76.3% in his 35 PA) — however it’s nonetheless encouraging.

That mentioned, he stays far too aggressive on the plate, particularly when you think about his particular profile as a hitter. Not like his teammate Rafael Devers, who additionally swings at a reasonably excessive charge of pitches out of the zone, Rafaela doesn’t hit the ball notably onerous; Devers has energy to spare, so regardless that he doesn’t make as a lot onerous contact on pitches out of the zone — his common exit velocity drops to 85.5 mph, down from 94.9 mph on in-zone pitches — he can nonetheless do injury. Rafaela doesn’t have that luxurious. As an alternative, he’s a speedster (rating twenty eighth in dash pace this season amongst 202 certified gamers) who performs his house video games at Fenway Park, one among baseball’s finest parks for batting common. He needs to be incentivized to have a extra contact-oriented recreation than most different batters. His contact abilities look like enhancing, however he gained’t get essentially the most out of his recreation if he retains chasing pitches that’s he unlikely to hit.

The Betts commerce and the departure of Xander Bogaerts are nonetheless, rightfully, ache factors for Boston followers. However since then, the Pink Sox appear to be making a greater effort to retain the gamers they develop, first with the Devers extension in January 2023 and now with Bello and Rafaela. In the end, successful is the one factor that may make issues higher in Boston. Maintaining Rafaela on the town needs to be an essential step towards that.