The common season begins in a few week, which implies there isn’t a lot time left to signal free brokers and combine them into the group earlier than video games begin to rely. In some instances, the truth is, there’s no time; Blake Snell received’t be prepared for Opening Day, so any pitchers who haven’t signed but absolutely received’t be both. However there’s one participant who may most likely fall off the bed and right into a beginning lineup subsequent Thursday, and the Mets simply signed him:
Breaking: JD Martinez to Mets. $12M
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) March 22, 2024
J.D. Martinez is offense in a can. He performs DH, so he doesn’t must study who he’s throwing to or catching from. He’s properly traveled, so this isn’t his first rodeo. And the Mets may use some offense, which implies this signing strains up on many axes. At one 12 months and $12 million, the contract is true. There’s only one query: How good will he be?
If you happen to hearken to our projections, Martinez is squarely on the draw back of his profession. ZiPS and Steamer undertaking him for a 106 and 105 wRC+, respectively, with a ton of strikeouts offsetting sturdy energy numbers. All DHs throughout baseball racked up a collective 106 wRC+ final 12 months. It’s not precisely alternative stage, nevertheless it doesn’t appear significantly onerous to search out somebody able to placing up that stage of offense.
A counterpoint, although: Martinez simply completed a season the place he hit .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+. The 12 months earlier than that, he was at 119, and 126 the 12 months earlier than that. Positive, he’s not the fearsome, MVP-caliber hitter he was in 2017 and 2018, however there’s loads of room to be worse than that and nonetheless nice. His statline didn’t look significantly fluky; he posted a .301 ISO, meaningfully greater than his profession mark, however he earned that manufacturing with a ton of onerous contact. He posted the second-highest barrel price of his profession, the very best hard-hit price, and put the ball within the air steadily to benefit from all that thunder.
There are numerous parts to research, however on the finish of the day, all of it boils down to 1 query: Ought to we belief 2023, or the projections of 2024? If the Mets get some semblance of what the Dodgers acquired, it is a whale of a deal. In the event that they get one thing nearer to league common, the entire package deal is quite a bit much less thrilling. Let’s see if we are able to choose up on any patterns that counsel one or the opposite.
The large fear with Martinez’s sport is that he strikes out quite a bit. His 31.1% mark in 2023 represented a brand new profession excessive, however he’s all the time been a high-risk, high-reward hitter. Practically each contact frequency and swing determination metric declined from the prior 12 months:
Swing Determination Blues
| 12 months | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 34.9% | 78.1% | 58.0% | 81.2% | 14.6% |
| 2023 | 36.9% | 76.7% | 47.0% | 82.2% | 17.2% |
That didn’t actually hurt Martinez final 12 months. It looks like his plan was fairly simple. Swing onerous, since you would possibly hit it, roughly. You possibly can reside with much more misses when you downright wallop the ball while you join, and that’s simply what Martinez did. These strikeouts have by no means sunk his offense; he has a profession 132 wRC+ with a profession 24.7% strikeout price. Projection methods suppose he’ll strike out fairly a bit subsequent 12 months — due to course they do — however that’s by no means stopped him from crushing.
Are Martinez’s lack of walks final 12 months behind his lackluster projections? They’ve by no means been an enormous a part of his sport within the first place, however 2023 marked one of many lowest stroll charges of his decade-long offensive renaissance. No sweat from both Steamer or ZiPS there, although; they suppose he’ll rebound towards profession norms.
No, the place they suppose Martinez will fall quick is what occurs after he hits the ball. I’m speaking 10 fewer homers in 70 further plate appearances, an epic energy outage. I feel the reason being fairly easy; 2023 was an outlier for him when it got here particularly to energy. He’s all the time run a excessive BABIP. He’s all the time hit numerous doubles, significantly in Boston. However he hit homers on 6.9% of his plate appearances final 12 months, the second-highest price of his profession, behind solely his torrid 2017 season (.303/.376/.690, 167 wRC+). You most likely can’t wager on that persevering with.
In different phrases, the projections are based mostly on a grain of fact, as they all the time are. If you happen to’re making an attempt to determine how this signing will fail, it’s the overall passage of time mixed with regression. Martinez will maintain placing out quite a bit, as a result of these are usually sticky. He’ll hit fewer bombs, as a result of these are extra variable. He’ll hit for a bit much less BABIP, too, and naturally he’s getting older, so sprinkle in a little bit of decline in all places, and presto change-o, you’ve turned Martinez into merely a good hitter as an alternative of an ideal one.
I don’t actually purchase that interpretation of the information, although. Projection methods clearly do an ideal job within the mixture, however I feel they’re lacking the arrow of causality right here. I don’t suppose Martinez struck out extra, sustainably, and occurred to hit the ball onerous, unsustainably. I feel that the 2 are linked, and that he took an attack-heavy strategy understanding the inherent tradeoffs. I feel it’s affordable to undertaking extra energy this 12 months, although most likely not final 12 months’s Baseball Savant-incinerating pink flames:
Break up the distinction between our projections and final season, and also you get roughly what I’m anticipating. Bunches of homers, bunches of strikeouts, and loads of onerous contact for singles and doubles combined in. The Mets may use that sort of offense to anchor their lineup, which we predict will find yourself in the midst of the pack in run scoring regardless of some glorious hitters on the high of the lineup.
The plate appearances that Martinez will take in wouldn’t have been nice, to say the least. There would’ve been numerous Mark Vientos in there, and maybe a heaping serving to of Tyrone Taylor. Francisco Alvarez was all the time going to get his justifiable share of DH at-bats when he’s not catching, and possibly Martinez cuts down on these, however there are limits to how usually it’s best to play your catcher at DH from a relaxation perspective. Brandon Nimmo was the opposite probably beneficiary of DH time. He’s an ideal hitter, however who would cowl for him within the outfield? This can be a significant offensive improve, is my level.
Does this signing make the Mets playoff favorites? To not me. I feel they’re nonetheless a bit of bit quick, largely as a result of their pitching workers is in some way dangerous by way of each expertise and availability. However I like this signing quite a bit anyway. It’s the sort of transfer that David Stearns steadily made in Milwaukee, and it normally paid off there. If you happen to construct your group in such a approach that it may possibly add gamers who fetch lower than anticipated in free company, then exit and add these guys opportunistically, you find yourself with a great roster, although not all the time in the best way you anticipated.
I by no means would have linked Martinez to the Mets at the beginning of this offseason. They appeared extra more likely to dip their toes into the pitching market, which is precisely what they did, signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. They traded for Adrian Houser and Taylor when the Brewers needed to shed 40-man spots. In doing all of that, the Mets saved some cash, which meant that when Martinez was accessible for lower than initially forecast, they’d the room so as to add, and the group composition to make it work.
I don’t suppose this deal will change the course of the 2024 season. I don’t suppose that his posting a 105 or 115 wRC+ will transfer mountains. I do suppose, nonetheless, that this transfer makes a ton of sense. It’s not a standalone try to repair the group. It’s not a blockbuster contract. It’s simply part of a bigger philosophy of group development: Getting good gamers on affordable offers tends to repay. And one additional benefit to throw in on the finish of this record, since I’ve already made my case that it’s a great signing: Everybody appears to like working with Martinez. He’s a pupil of hitting who would make Ted Williams proud. If you happen to can justify the deal earlier than including that, that’s fairly the throw-in.