Daulton Varsho Is Cleansing up His Course of

I’ve needed to write down about Daulton Varsho for a very long time. As a catcher turned elite defensive outfielder, he’s had a uncommon profession development. Due to that, he’s been certainly one of my favourite gamers to observe. However I’m not right here to speak about his protection, and even his elite baserunning for that matter. As an alternative, the main focus goes to be on his one non-elite ability: his bat.

By means of 1,603 profession plate appearances, Varsho has a 96 wRC+. He was a barely above-average hitter from 2021-2022, however he took a giant step again in his first yr with the Blue Jays, posting an 85 wRC+ throughout 581 plate appearances. His peripherals have been about the identical as they have been the earlier yr, however his output was considerably worse. It was complicated to see. The expectation was that he would make a leap in his third full season, and the projections supported that. ZiPS’ median projection had him pegged for a 117 OPS+; his precise manufacturing ended up being a backside decile end result. Regardless of the regression, ZiPS remains to be assured Varsho generally is a little higher than league common with the bat this season, with a projected 107 wRC+.

Any hitter who noticed as huge of a drop as Varsho did final yr can be eager to overtake his course of, although at occasions it may be troublesome to find out what a part of the profile wants probably the most consideration. Fortunately for Varsho, his was an apparent analysis that had little to do together with his method; his swing choices truly improved in 2023. As an alternative, the issue might be present in his bat monitoring knowledge.

Let’s rapidly redefine some phrases earlier than beginning the evaluation. First is Vertical Entry Angle (VEA): Sourcing the definition (and knowledge) from SwingGraphs, VEA is the vertical angle of the bat roughly 83 milliseconds earlier than contact, or in different phrases, the angle of the bat relative to the bottom in the beginning of the down swing. Then there’s Vertical Bat Angle (VBA), one thing I’ve cited many occasions in earlier work. VBA is the angle of the bat relative to the bottom at contact. Lastly, there’s Assault Angle (AA), which represents the vertical route of the bat at contact.

Every of those measurements are necessary for understanding any hitter. The way in which they work and work together with each other can inform the story of a swing. For Varsho, the way in which these measurements work collectively is particularly necessary as a result of he tends to stay on the intense ends of them. Here’s a desk summarizing his VBA and AA relative to the league:

Varsho’s VBA is persistently one of many lowest in baseball. Which means on common, his bat is flatter on the level of contact than many of the league. Whereas it’s necessary to notice that VBA depends on pitch top (VBA decreases as you progress up within the zone), it’s not as if Varsho is barely making contact with excessive pitches and that alone is the explanation for his low mark. The truth is, his contact heights are sometimes common or under common – not precisely the hitter you’d anticipate to have a VBA this low. Then, with regards to AA, his mark was among the many highest in 2022 and above common in 2023. Each years, he was among the many leaders in optimistic differential between VBA and AA (AA > VBA). That’s attention-grabbing, and maybe a giant purple flag contemplating his profile as a hitter.

There is no such thing as a such factor as an absolute in baseball – there’s at all times room for departure from the norm – nevertheless it’s sometimes not optimum for a hitter to alter the angle of his bat this a lot by way of his swing. For those who hit the ball laborious, you possibly can in all probability make it work higher than most, however Varsho doesn’t have that form of room for error. Taking the bat off its pure aircraft of motion will doubtless lead to a number of mishits. Unsurprisingly, Varsho was among the many league leaders in pop-up fee in 2023. This swing profile is way from ideally suited, particularly as a result of he doesn’t have the ability to beat the deficiencies. Now is an efficient time to pivot to VEA and its function in Varsho’s swing.

I didn’t embrace VEA within the desk as a result of the quantity is finest represented by a spread, for the reason that metric remains to be a piece in progress at SwingGraphs and the seize fee isn’t at all times constant. From September 2022 by way of final season, Varsho’s VEA has fluctuated between 42 and 48 levels. Which means he tends to flatten his bat from the beginning of the downswing by way of contact at a spread between 16 to 21 levels. Once more, that’s among the many highest in baseball, if not the very highest.

Here’s a fast screenshot of about the place VEA is captured:

So, from the purpose you see above to contact (VEA to VBA), he flattens his bat angle a ton. That helps put the items of Varsho’s swing puzzle collectively. Give it some thought from a reciprocal motion perspective. The way you set your self as much as transfer will straight impression the following step within the kinetic chain. In case your bat is pointing upward because the downswing begins, then its pure response is to have a vertically oriented path by way of the ball, therefore Varsho’s excessive VEA into excessive AA. By making his barrel flat at impression (regardless of transferring it on an upward path), he’s forcing it off its pure path, which has a destructive impact on his contact high quality. Let’s watch just a few swings from final yr to recollect what his swing truly seems like:

There are some swings the place it goes proper and others the place it goes incorrect. What’s clear even from this handful is that Varsho tinkered together with his hand placement all through final season, maybe in an try and get comfy by way of a bumpy yr. When he spoke to David Laurila just a few weeks in the past, he mentioned his mindset on the plate. After Laurila identified to Varsho that he pulls the ball extra usually than any hitter within the league and adopted up by asking if Varsho needed to elevate the ball, the Jays outfielder made it clear that his thought course of is to hit grounders. This caught out to me – not due to any criticism of the old fashioned mindset – however due to how he units his swing up.

As I’ve identified, Varsho’s VEA places him in line for a steep swing, however his intent to hit the ball on the bottom performs out by way of his flat VBA. The flat VBA itself isn’t the difficulty. Loads of different hitters have success with it. It’s that he doesn’t optimally set himself as much as have a flat swing. If he began his downswing flatter, he can be in a greater place to execute on the flat swing he intends to have. Cue 2024 spring coaching:

Effectively, I’m intrigued. Yeah, the outcomes are higher within the small pattern, however that doesn’t actually matter right here. That is as sound of a course of as I might have imagined for Varsho. If his aim is to have a low, line drive oriented swing, then that is how he ought to arrange for it.
He factors his bat down in his stance to remind him to maintain the bat flat as he begins his swing. The open stance might be a consolation factor, nevertheless it might assist create extra space for him to get his bat going deeper within the zone. That’s one thing simpler to do with a flat bat path than a steep one. Both means, these changes align together with his acknowledged plan and the opposite elements of his swing.

As of now, it’s unclear whether or not these modifications will consequence within the offensive breakout we have been anticipating final yr. We’ll want common season knowledge to reply that query. However what it does do is show that Varsho is cleansing up his course of and matching his psychological plan to his bodily mechanics. That’s necessary. If he can return to his league-average hitting, it’ll be sufficient to make him a helpful participant, given his elite fielding and baserunning. If he might be higher than that, he’ll emerge as one of many sport’s extra gifted stars. For now, let’s see how April goes.