Revisiting Willy Adames’ Quest for Large Bucks

The Brewers are in a captivating scenario, not a lot treading water as making an attempt to swim in two completely different instructions on the similar time. They’ve misplaced their celebrated supervisor and traded their Cy Younger-winning ace, however they’ve introduced in Rhys Hoskins on a profitable (for them) free agent contract whereas deciding to not commerce their different main free-agent-to-be, Willy Adames.

One of many first posts I wrote for FanGraphs, some 18 months in the past, involved Adames’ future with the Brewers. Or, extra possible given his potential to ring the bell for a nine-figure contract in free company, his future elsewhere. Let’s test in on that potential, and see what we must always anticipate from Adames in 2024 and past.

Let’s begin by revisiting a number of the evaluative measures I used again then. Adames was traded to Milwaukee on Might 21, 2021. Since then, listed here are the highest 10 MLB shortstops in WAR.

Adames is seventh. Is he actually the seventh-best shortstop in baseball? Possibly not. Bogaerts and Tatis aren’t actually shortstops anymore, however Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson aren’t on this listing based mostly on taking part in time. I think about most individuals, in the event that they had been beginning a staff from scratch, would quite have Witt or Henderson than Adames. I’m certain there are some hardcore Ha-Seong Kim followers on the market, and a pair daredevils who’d danger all of it on Jackson Holliday or Jordan Lawlar.

However earlier than I dig into the form of Adames’ manufacturing, I wish to stress one factor first: Shortstops at this stage get paid. Within the authentic submit, I detailed the compensation of the opposite high shortstops in baseball. However the listing was incomplete; this was on the eve of the celebrated 2022-23 free agent class, with its 4 elite shortstops. So let’s replace that listing of shortstops on long-term contracts, together with gamers like Bogaerts and Tatis who’re ontologically shortstops however presently occupy one other place.

Adames will hit free company at age 29, and his WAR over the previous two seasons is an excellent 8.0. That places him someplace between Swanson and Báez: Let’s name it $150 million over six years. And I make these comparisons purposely, as a result of the draw for Adames is that he’s a stable all-around participant in all respects besides protection, the place he’s among the best within the league.

Final season, Adames was tied with Ezequiel Tovar for second in OAA amongst shortstops. Over the previous two seasons, Adames is second to Swanson. Over the previous two seasons, Baseball Savant has Adames within the ninetieth and ninety fifth percentiles, respectively, in fielding run worth.

That’s a giant draw, however not sufficient of 1 to place Adames in nine-figure worth all by itself. At that stage, transactions are made as a lot on vibes and PR as superior analytics — that’s why Scott Boras likes to make direct appeals to homeowners. It’s straightforward to promote Seager’s bat or Turner’s legs to the general public, however whereas effortful protection is simple to acknowledge, nice protection may be refined and ineffable.

The nice defensive shortstops who’ve gotten paid not too long ago — Lindor, Correa, Swanson, and Báez — have all been extremely seen members of pennant-winning groups. (It additionally helps that Lindor and Correa are mashers as effectively, or a minimum of they’re often mashers, and Báez has two 30-homer seasons to his title, the second of which got here in his contract 12 months.)

Adames performed in a World Sequence with the Rays in 2020, however he had a fairly tough postseason (he hit .136/.301/.203) whereas Randy Arozarena, Blake Snell, and the Bullpen Clock ate up all of the headlines. Bear in mind when everybody was freaking out about the way in which Báez tagged guys at second base? Adames didn’t get something like that press.

A glove-first shortstop who hit .217 final 12 months is a troublesome promote within the $100 million vary, even when he can take a stroll and has hit 20 or extra residence runs each full season of his profession. You may as effectively low cost out and attempt to discover the subsequent Orlando Arcia or one thing. So if Adames actually desires to receives a commission, he’s acquired to re-establish himself as — on the very least — a Swanson-level hitter: One thing like a 110 wRC+ in his stroll 12 months would do properly.

So let’s examine that disappointing offensive marketing campaign in 2023, which noticed Adames’ wRC+ drop to 94.

When Adames acquired traded in 2021, he began placing the ball within the air extra. In 2020, he had a GB/FB ratio of 1.37; by 2022, that had dropped to 0.74. So naturally, you’d anticipate his BABIP (which peaked at .388 in 2020) to drop as effectively — and it has — however not all the way in which to .259 final 12 months, when his GB/FB ratio was 0.81. In 2023, Adames additionally underperformed his Statcast anticipated stats by 20 to 30 factors throughout the board. That doesn’t have in mind batted ball route, but it surely’s a sign that he was hitting the ball tougher than his outcomes gave him credit score for.

Adames additionally posted a profession excessive 11.1% stroll fee in 2023, which helped preserve his OBP at a decent .310 though his batting common dangled perilously near the Mendoza Line. Mixed with a discount in HardHit% (a fairly vital one, dropping from 43.6 to 36.5 — seventieth percentile to twenty third), I anxious that the elevated stroll fee was proof of Adames being extra passive on the plate.

Right here’s the place it will get mildly regarding. All of Adames’ underlying numbers solely moved a number of ticks, so this might be noise. Even over a full season, these numbers are delicate. A participant watches Contact and spends a pair weeks preoccupied by the hugeness of the universe and the precarity of our place in it… that might present up as a pair proportion factors’ distinction in swing fee or no matter.

Anyway, listed here are the 2 issues I wish to mark. First: Adames’ swing fee stayed pretty constant from 2022 to 2023. It went up from 49.6% to an excellent 50%. However pitchers had been pitching him within the zone considerably much less, which suggests he was swinging at extra borderline pitches in 2023, which you’ll be able to see within the chart above. And he was doing much less injury on pitches in the course of the plate. How does that jive with the constant anticipated batting common and so forth? Adames was pulling the ball extra final 12 months. In the event you take out the truncated 2020 season, Adames posted the best pull fee of his profession. That’s not a foul factor in and of itself. However do not forget that xBA and so forth are direction-agnostic. Ought to Adames have anticipated related outcomes in 2023 as 2022? Or was he dishonest and opening his hips sooner, which opened up minute gaps in his swing elsewhere, giving the phantasm that that was the case?

It’s laborious to know, and once more, these are all small results individually. However they kind the idea of a query that won’t solely have a huge effect on Milwaukee’s season, however might swing the vacation spot of tens of tens of millions of {dollars} this coming winter.