Halfway by way of a podcast sequence wherein I break down the race to the Paris Olympics, I took a web page out of Seth Davis’ e-book. Davis is an incredible basketball author for The Athletic, and as March Insanity approaches and bracketology ramps up its fervor, Davis has a one-word, all-caps tagline on X when he feels a crew has punched their ticket into the NCAA Event:
SHARPIE!
On the Highway to Paris spinoff podcast of SANDCAST, I, too, started to Sharpie groups in. A couple of listeners and viewers thought I did so a bit prematurely in some instances, particularly the Brazilian ladies’s race. I questioned, then, if there have been an empirical, statistical method wherein I — or another person good with numbers — might calculate the percentages of every crew remaining who had a reliable shot at qualifying.
I referred to as up Garrett Springer, my brother-in-law, a statistics main at BYU with a bent on sports activities stats specifically, and he took on the undertaking with aplomb.
How, precisely, he did it, I’m not completely certain, however Springer was capable of simulate the subsequent 10 occasions — the ultimate 10 within the Olympic qualifying race — and it spit out the chances wherein every crew certified for Paris.
The chances you see beneath are the chances of instances within the simulated occasions that the groups certified for the 2024 Olympic Video games. It is very important notice that we eliminated World Championship winners Kelly Cheng and Sara Hughes, and Ondrej Perusic and David Schweiner of the Czech Republic, as they’ve clinched a bid that’s assured to the winners of the World Championships.
We’ll do our greatest to replace these possibilities as usually as doable. In a perfect world, that may come after each event, till the Ostrava Elite16, the ultimate Olympic qualifying occasion that concludes on June 9.
Males’s Olympic race possibilities
Anders Mol, Christian Sorum: 100%
Nils Ehlers, Clemens Wickler: 100%
David Ahman, Jonatan Hellvig: 100%
Sam Cottafava, Paolo Nicolai: 99.9%
Andy Benesh, Miles Partain: 99.9%
Andre Loyola, George Wanderley: 99.6%
Alex Brouwer, Robert Meeuwsen: 99.1%
Adrian Carambula, Alex Ranghieri: 98.6%
Adrian Gavira, Pablo Herrera: 97%
Michal Bryl, Bartosz Losiak: 95.9%
Cherif Samba, Ahmed Tijan: 94.3%
Evandro Goncalves, Arthur Mariano: 90.8%
Thomas Hodges, Zachery Schubert: 90.7%
Julian Horl, Alex Horst: 68.1%
Theo Brunner, Trevor Crabb: 56.7%
Stefan Boermans, Yorick de Groot: 54.9%
Esteban Grimalt, Marco Grimalt: 27.1%
Matthew Immers, Steven Van de Velde: 24.8%
Moritz Pristauz, Robin Seidl: 23.1%
Chase Budinger, Miles Evans: 20.6%
Piotr Kantor, Jakub Zdybek: 11.8%
Tri Bourne, Chaim Schalk: 7.9%
Pedro Salgado, Guto Carvalhaes: 7.7%
Dan Dearing, Sam Schachter, 4.6%
Arnaud Gauthier-Rat, Youssef Krou: 4.3%
Hendrik Mol, Mathias Berntsen: 4.1%
Girls’s Olympic race possibilities
Duda, Ana Patricia: 100%
Melissa Humana-Paredes, Brandie Wilkerson: 100%
Xinyi Xia, Chen Xue: 100%
Taryn Kloth, Kristen Nuss: 100%
Raisa Schoon, Katja Stam: 100%
Tina Graudina, Anastasija Samoilova: 99.9%
Valentina Gottardi, Marta Menegatti: 99.9%
Carol Salgado, Barbara Seixas: 99.8%
Svenja Muller, Cinja Tillmann: 99.7%
Mariafe Artacho, Taliqua Clancy: 99.6%
Nina Brunner, Tanja Huberli: 94.3%
Daniela Alvarez, Tania Moreno: 68.8%
Lezana Placette, Alexia Richard: 65.9%
Esmee Bobner, Zoe Verge-Depre: 50.3%
Anouk Verge-Depre, Joana Mader: 46.4%
Sarah Pavan, Molly McBain: 37.2%
Laura Ludwig, Louisa Lippmann: 29.8%
Niina Ahtiainen, Taru Lahti: 22%
Monika Paulikiene, Aine Raupelyte: 21.9%
Karla Borger, Sandra Ittlinger: 14.6%
Jagoda Gruszczynska, Ola Wachowicz: 12.7%
Barbora Hermannova, Marie-Sara Stochlova: 11.5%
Dorina Klinger, Ronja Klinger: 6.8%
Jie Dong, Fan Wang: 5.1%
Worapeerachayakorn, Naraphornrapat: 5.1%
Lili Fernandez, Paula Soria, 4.9%