I write in regards to the Rays quite a bit. I simply wrote about them signing Amed Rosario, for instance. Earlier this month, I wrote an article titled “The Rays Can’t Maintain Getting Away With This, Can They?”, and in one other, I wrote that I had not too long ago daydreamed about one in all my favourite Rays gamers throughout a root canal. I’m endlessly impressed by how this group does it. However this 12 months? I can not put into phrases how wild I discover this model of its group building. In different phrases, I’m writing in regards to the Rays as a result of they deserve it – or no less than I feel so.
Final 12 months, they gained 99 video games. They’d each among the best offenses and among the best pitching staffs within the American League. They did a bit little bit of the whole lot, and almost overtook the Orioles for first place within the AL in consequence. However that was final 12 months. Three of Tampa Bay’s prime six gamers aren’t returning.
There’s Wander Franco, after all. He could by no means play one other recreation of main league baseball. Tyler Glasnow, who regarded downright indomitable in his first 12 months again from Tommy John surgical procedure, acquired traded to the Dodgers. Shane McClanahan is having Tommy John himself. Heck, Jeffrey Springs got here into the season as one of many group’s greatest pitchers, and his personal surgical procedure will maintain him out till after the All Star break this 12 months.
That’s simply the way in which life works for the Rays. It’s not at all times for a similar causes, however the group offers with extraordinary turnover. Blake Snell was a key cog in Tampa Bay’s rotation proper till he wasn’t. Tommy Pham powered the offense till he grew to become too costly in arbitration. Austin Meadows, Chris Archer, Charlie Morton – I hardly need to undergo all of this intimately. The Rays swap guys out left and proper in pursuit of their yearly purpose of successful the AL East.
Perhaps that’s a bridge too far this season. In any case, they’ve misplaced a lot from final 12 months’s group. However have a look at our projected standings, and we’ve got them second within the AL East. Baseball Prospectus has them fourth, however it additionally has them successful extra video games than we venture; that division is simply extremely aggressive. Fashions and betting markets agree that the Rays are going to be a superb group once more this 12 months, above .500 and competing for a playoff spot or divisional title.
In previous years, that’s been as a result of the Rays have reloaded with new gamers which are higher than the market realizes. They signed Zach Eflin final offseason and he became one in all their greatest pitchers. They traded for Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena a couple of years in the past, and Pham earlier than that. They name up prospects all over; Franco and McClanahan debuted as in-season reinforcements. The pipeline seemingly has no finish.
This season feels prefer it must be the top of that run. In distinction to earlier years, this winter’s acquisitions don’t precisely spark pleasure. Tampa Bay’s new on a regular basis shortstop, José Caballero, performed second base for the offensively challenged Mariners, and the Mariners traded him away in pursuit of extra offense. Jonny DeLuca was a calmly regarded prospect within the Dodgers system earlier than becoming a member of the Rays, who’re going to make him a part of their platoon machine. Ryan Pepiot – OK, I like Pepiot fairly a bit. I feel he could be their greatest acquisition of the offseason.
I needed to go to a paragraph break right here as a result of the Rays have acquired so many gamers who don’t sound very thrilling this offseason. They signed Phil Maton in free company. They traded for Richie Palacios from the Cardinals. Rosario signed with Tampa Bay on a minuscule deal as a result of nobody would provide him extra.
This simply doesn’t sound prefer it must be sufficient. Most of those gamers came visiting in alternate for a pittance, both financially or in commerce return. The Rays have a ton of plate appearances to interchange, they usually’re doing it with a bunch of gamers who nobody else was serious about. It looks like they’re heading for a fall.
Solely, after all, that in all probability gained’t occur. They’re projected to be a superb group but once more. And be trustworthy: You’d take the over on quite a lot of the person participant projections, wouldn’t you? The Rays do a superb job of discovering gamers with abilities that the remainder of the market isn’t evaluating appropriately. Their work with pitchers is a good instance. Eflin wasn’t thought of the most effective pitcher available on the market by an extended shot final winter, which is why he signed a three-year, $40 million deal. It’s why the Rays had been in a position to signal him within the first place.
Go down the road, and also you’ll see extra examples like that. Springs came visiting in a minor cope with the Purple Sox, then promptly became an ace. Zack Littell was an appropriate reliever who bounced across the league; we now record him as Tampa Bay’s no. 3 starter after an incredibly efficient promotion to the rotation in 2023. An limitless string of relievers unlock higher ranges of efficiency with the Rays; Chris Devenski and Pete Fairbanks are two current examples of it, and I’m excited to see what Maton and Tyler Alexander can do that 12 months.
Once more, all of us sort of know this by now. The Rays get a bit bit further out of everybody as a result of their participant improvement operation is great. Additionally they get a bit bit further out of everybody as a result of they perceive the way to put gamers in the most effective place to succeed. Assume Paredes with the quick porch in left, or their seemingly boundless mixture of platoon choices (conventional lefty/righty, pitch form, and so forth). They unlock defensive versatility that nobody predicted, or cut back defensive versatility in favor of improved efficiency for guys who had been maybe stretched too skinny.
Their different trick, the one which I feel will get talked about much less, is their means to adapt to what the market is giving them. They do their homework on the free brokers who could be accessible to them and signal not solely those who’re greatest poised to enhance with them, but in addition those who’re most undervalued by the market earlier than any enchancment. After they make trades, positive, they’re searching for guys who can enhance of their system, however additionally they discover guys who can be bargains even with out enchancment.
Rosario is a good instance of that. Even in the event you worth the primary win above alternative at a a lot decrease fee than the others, as groups more and more select to do (as they need to, in my view), his contract nonetheless is available in beneath that stage. Eflin probably acquired much less cash as a result of he’d alternated between beginning and relieving the earlier 12 months. Even when Paredes solely performed to the shape his that minor league numbers implied, he regarded like a beneficial common; the Tigers traded him for lower than that as a consequence of a mix of outfield want and prospect fatigue. Yandy Díaz was blocked in Cleveland, which is why he was accessible in a three-way commerce. Arozarena was accessible as a result of the Cardinals had an outfielder crunch on their 40-man roster.
This sounds fairly easy once you clarify it that means. The Rays maintain their heads stage when everybody else is dropping theirs. However that’s onerous! There are at all times causes to diverge from a value-maximizing method to group constructing. The exigencies of the present day matter. Recency bias issues. Preserving followers pleased issues. Preserving the clubhouse pleased issues. The Rays are only a lot higher than the remainder of baseball at balancing all these elements whereas nonetheless usually discovering gamers who the remainder of the league merely doesn’t worth extremely sufficient.
Caballero and Palacios, specifically, are nice examples of simply any such commerce. I do know that Caballero was on the outs with the Mariners, who had been seeking to improve their offense, however let me ask you this: Why? He was a league common hitter with phenomenal protection in 2023, accumulating 2.2 WAR in solely 280 plate appearances. His minor league profession was repeatedly interrupted by damage. He’ll by no means hit for a ton of energy, however he’s run gaudy on-base percentages at each stage and continued that within the majors final 12 months. ZiPS initiatives him to be price 1.7 WAR in 295 plate appearances. That’s a borderline All Star participant in a full time function.
Now, will that manufacturing look sort of bizarre? Completely. It’s all walks, singles, and protection, a sort of modern-day Luis Castillo, the Marlins second baseman. The Mariners had been all about getting extra offense through energy, they usually’ll certainly be pleased with Luke Raley. However the Rays are completely content material to get their manufacturing in bizarre methods; their bopping nook infield duo of Paredes and Díaz is a good instance. And in the event you’re taking a look at it that means, Caballero is strictly what they want.
Palacios isn’t fairly so apparent of a win, however he additionally fills a job the group will certainly want this 12 months. He can play each nook outfield spots, and even middle in a pinch. He has glorious pitch recognition. If the Rays determine to commerce Arozarena, Palacios will be a part of a platoon that replaces him. In the event that they determine to commerce Josh Lowe, Palacios can step proper in. The Cardinals had too many outfielders, so whereas Palacios’ panning out final 12 months was nice for them, they actually didn’t have a spot. All it price Tampa Bay to amass a reliable fourth outfielder with a half-decade of group management was one 12 months of Andrew Kittredge. Offers like this are how the machine recharges itself.
Perhaps this seems like I’m heaping limitless quantities of reward on the Rays. Truthfully, that’s mainly what it’s! However somebody ought to say it. The Rays at all times appear to rebuild themselves, however in utilizing small strikes to build up one thing big, they’re making a bolder guess than they’ve in earlier years — and it appears like issues are going to work out high-quality for them once more. I simply needed to level that out, even when it brings my depend of Rays articles to a ridiculous tally.