Who would be the king of clout this season? Listed here are 5 of the highest candidates to steer the Main Leagues in residence runs — and 5 darkish horses — as picked by a panel of MLB.com specialists.
Choose hit 37 residence runs in simply 106 video games final 12 months, probably the most by a participant who missed not less than 50 of his workforce’s video games in a season. And the 12 months earlier than that? He set an AL file with 62 residence runs. He was the plain selection right here for the No. 1 favourite. Choose slugged .613 final season however had an anticipated slugging share of .712. Meaning he ought to have had an excellent increased slug primarily based on the standard of contact he made. That’s a house run chief.
Ohtani is taking it just a little straightforward this spring as he recovers from proper elbow surgical procedure, however he stays on monitor to play come Opening Day. And beginning together with his first batting observe session, Ohtani’s energy stroke appears to be like prepared for the video games to start. The Dodgers will most likely give their latest famous person a number of extra relaxation days early within the season. That is tremendous; Ohtani’s AL-leading 44 dingers final 12 months got here in solely 135 video games. Few gamers routinely make louder, extra damaging contact, and being part of the Dodgers’ lineup could flip the two-time MVP into an excellent higher hitter.
Acuña has performed two full, wholesome Main League seasons (2019 and ’23) and hit 41 homers in each of them, which provides you an thought of the form of lengthy ball expertise we’re speaking about right here. However is that the 26-year-old’s ceiling? Uncertain. Few within the sport hit the ball tougher or farther than Acuña, who knocked 13 extra barrels than anybody else in 2023. (Amongst these with 25-plus dingers, he ranked second behind Ohtani each in common exit velocity and distance on these homers.) Truist Park can also be a comparatively hitter-friendly launching pad, and the Braves’ stacked lineup will give Acuña plenty of possibilities so long as he stays on the sphere as soon as once more.
If a man who had 176 residence runs over six Main League seasons can have a “breakout” marketing campaign, that’s what Olson had final 12 months when he slammed a Braves-record 54 homers to steer MLB. He additionally paced MLB with 139 RBIs and the NL with a .604 slugging share. He set profession bests in barrel price (16.4%) and hard-hit price (55.5%), amongst different quality-of-contact metrics, and at 29, he’s nonetheless in his prime. The query isn’t merely whether or not he’ll lead the Majors in homers for the second straight 12 months, but in addition whether or not he’ll change into the primary NL participant to eclipse the 60-homer milestone since Barry Bonds hit a file 73 in 2001.
Main League Baseball is at the moment spoiled with unbelievable energy hitters, and García has greater than earned the correct to be counted amongst them. His 16.1% barrel price in 2023 ranked seventh in MLB, barely behind Olson and Kyle Schwarber (47 HR in ’23). He’s had no bother changing on that uncooked energy, both — his 39 homers final season gave him 97 since 2021, tied with Mookie Betts for the Eleventh-most over that span. Assuming good well being sooner or later, it sort of feels prefer it’s solely a matter of time earlier than García makes good on this prediction.
A darkish horse may very well be outlined in a lot of methods, however our MLB.com panel labored with this easy limitation: No seasons of 35-plus residence runs from 2021-23. Thirty-three hitters reached that mark not less than as soon as throughout that span, so they’re excluded from our picks right here.
A torn proper knee ligament in addition to left indirect and hamstring strains have restricted Lewis to solely 70 massive league video games since debuting in 2022. However when his profession hasn’t been star-crossed, the previous No. 1 total Draft choose has displayed critical pop. His 15 residence runs in 2023 got here in simply 58 video games — that’s 42 dingers over a 162-game season. He went deep 11 instances in his ultimate 26 regular-season video games and added 4 extra clouts in a record-tying postseason efficiency. Lewis’ 114 mph most exit velocity and 11.7% barrel price from 2023 display his improbable uncooked energy and his capacity to make optimum contact. With a splash of damage luck, Lewis might ship an enormous stat line.
Torkelson suits the factors right here, however in some methods, he’s the furthest factor from a darkish horse. He was a slugging sensation at Arizona State, the No. 1 total choose within the 2020 Draft and a consensus top-five prospect who climbed rapidly. But adjusting to the very best degree was a big-time wrestle for Torkelson, who hit simply eight homers (with a .604 OPS) in 110 video games as a rookie. He began sluggish final 12 months, too, however went deep 16 instances in his ultimate 48 video games, tying Choose for second in MLB over that span. Nonetheless simply 24, Torkelson has the uncooked energy (94th-percentile hard-hit price, 89th-percentile barrel price) to ascend the house run leaderboard as he continues to refine his sport on the plate.
Seager has hit 33 homers in every of the previous two seasons. The distinction between 2022 and ’23? He wanted 116 fewer at-bats to do it in ’23. The Rangers shortstop had a profession 12 months regardless of being restricted to 119 video games by damage, setting profession highs in RBIs (96), slugging share (.623) and OPS (1.013). If Seager, who completed runner-up to Ohtani in AL MVP Award voting, can keep on the sphere for 150 video games or extra in ’24, his trajectory suggests he might eclipse the 40-homer mark for the primary time. So far as his residence run ceiling goes, who is aware of?
Morel generates a ton of energy, as evidenced not solely by his batted-ball knowledge (15.9% barrel price, 50.0% hard-hit price in 2023) but in addition by his arm, which averaged 96.6 mph on aggressive throws final season. Thus far, he’s been streaky — he hit 26 homers in 107 video games final 12 months (a 39-HR tempo over 162 video games) however began with a really ludicrous 9 in his first 12. At 24 years previous, he’s additionally nonetheless very a lot on the entrance finish of his growth curve. Who’s to say the place his ceiling is?