This winter has been one of many weakest markets for center infielders in latest reminiscence. You bear in mind the shortstop glut of latest years? Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts… the record of gamers who both reached free company or signed extensions to take them off the market went on and on. However this yr, the pickings have been slim. Relying on private choice, the most effective second baseman or shortstop out there was… Whit Merrifield? Isiah Kiner-Falefa? I might have mentioned Amed Rosario, solely the market clearly disagrees:
Infielder Amed Rosario and the Tampa Bay Rays are in settlement on a one-year, $1.5 million contract, sources inform ESPN. Rosario, 28, will deliver a powerful bat towards left-handed pitching and will get at-bats at shortstop, second base and probably corner-outfield spots.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 20, 2024
That’s an incredibly gentle deal for Rosario, at the least in my head. I had him on the tail finish of my High 50 free agent rankings, and the group and I each penciled him in for a two-year deal value $8 million per yr. As a substitute, he’s getting lower than a fifth of that AAV, and for under a yr at that. This deserves some investigation, each into why his market didn’t develop and why the Rays got here calling ultimately.
Should you’re searching for a purpose to not signal Rosario, it’s fairly straightforward to give you a handful. The primary one is pretty apparent. He simply put up a season value 0.2 WAR, which is about as disastrous because it sounds. The explanation? His protection at shortstop was downright abysmal. DRS and OAA agree that he was one of many worst common shortstops in baseball, 10 runs or so under common in an abbreviated run as Cleveland’s on a regular basis choice.
That’s putrid stuff, plain and easy. Should you play shortstop that poorly, you most likely shouldn’t play shortstop in any respect. The Dodgers clearly concurred; even with a transparent want on the place, they relegated Rosario to second base responsibility after buying and selling for him. However excellent news! He dealt with second base pretty nicely, so he can nonetheless play an up-the-middle defensive place, which provides his worth a pleasant flooring.
Again to the unhealthy information: Should you’re going to play acceptable second base protection, you may most likely get away with being a league common bat. However Rosario wasn’t common — his 88 wRC+ wasn’t fairly disastrous, but it surely’s the type of line you may settle for from a slick-fielding man, not a defender who’s common at finest. A mean hitter who performs common second base protection is a pleasant main leaguer. Downgrade both facet to under common, although, and we’re speaking about substitute degree or thereabouts.
Slightly little bit of every part went incorrect for Rosario on the plate final yr. He has by no means hit for a ton of energy, however he hit for lower than ever in 2023. His underlying numbers again that up; each permutation of his batted ball information says the identical factor, that he was making impactful contact much less often than earlier than. Up to now, he’d been in a position to offset that lack of pop by slashing and sprinting his solution to a excessive BABIP. He didn’t do abysmally on that entrance in 2023, however even a .310 BABIP wasn’t sufficient to rescue his general offensive worth. The mixture of a low stroll fee, low energy, and a merely acceptable batting common turned him into an offensive legal responsibility.
That’s all the time been the draw back danger with Rosario, and that’s why he ended up with such a modest contract. If issues don’t pan out, he’s not a lot better than somebody you may pull up from Triple-A. However that’s now baked into the contract; even for the penny-pinching Rays, $1.5 million will hardly break the financial institution. That implies that Tampa Bay can give attention to the upside he may deliver to the desk, and that’s appreciable.
Let’s begin with one apparent limitation of Rosario’s which may work out within the crew’s favor: He’s most likely not an on a regular basis participant except his offense improves considerably. Rosario has been an terrible hitter towards righties in his profession, posting a .262/.296/.374 line, however he checks in at .298/.339/.467 towards lefties, an enormous enchancment. Even in the event you regress {that a} great distance again in the direction of the imply, as befits somebody who has confronted lefties 948 instances in his profession, we’re somebody with someplace between double and triple a league common platoon cut up. Should you suppose Rosario is a 95 wRC+ hitter general, that works out to one thing like a 91 wRC+ hitter towards righties and 104 towards lefties.
That’s a middling case, however you may think about higher eventualities than that. Nonetheless good of a hitter you suppose Rosario is, the Rays might make him considerably higher just by placing him in additional advantageous conditions. And wouldn’t you recognize, that’s type of their specialty. A fast have a look at their roster reveals two straightforward locations Rosario might work into the combination with out consuming at-bats towards righties. He might kind a pure platoon with Brandon Lowe, the incumbent second baseman and a lefty who has at instances struggled towards southpaws. He might additionally platoon with Jonathan Aranda, who we at present venture because the DH.
Both of those roles will likely be inherently restricted by the variety of lefties the Rays face. Randy Arozarena received all of the lefty appears to be like he might deal with final yr, which got here out to 138 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz received to 139. There are solely so many plate appearances to go round towards lefties as a result of there are solely so many lefty pitchers. Even probably the most platoon-happy righties find yourself going through principally same-handed pitching due to the way in which that handedness works.
That’s the unhealthy information. The excellent news is that 150 or so plate appearances towards lefties goes a great distance in the direction of juicing up Rosario’s worth. He’ll play loads of video games with righties beginning due to Tampa Bay’s whirling configuration of our bodies. Possibly Lowe will get a relaxation day at DH and let Rosario deal with second. Possibly he’ll spell Jose Caballero at brief, or cowl a nook outfield in some bizarre flex operation. Along with his velocity and skill to hit lefties, he’ll additionally present late inning utility.
In some methods, the Rays appear to be an apparent match for Rosario’s skills. Nobody shuffles and reshuffles fairly like they do, and nobody else finds little edges for simply the suitable gamers the identical approach. That additional juice issues quite a bit for gamers like Rosario, who tasks as a below-average participant if utilized in a “customary” approach. By excising the spots the place he’d be at a drawback, the Rays will seemingly get extra per plate look out of Rosario than another crew in baseball may.
Then again, Rosario will most likely get fewer complete plate appearances with the Rays than he would wherever else keen on signing him. That’s simply a part of how they function, with few gamers on the 40-man roster getting something approaching full taking part in time. The Rays don’t signal plenty of common regulars, as a result of the worth that these sorts of gamers present is blunted by the shortage of accessible taking part in time.
If Rosario signed for something approaching what I used to be projecting, he by no means would have ended up on the Gulf Coast. The Rays merely don’t function that approach. However when his price ticket dropped, he turned much more engaging. When the league values a participant this near the minimal, utilizing them as a part-time participant makes good baseball and financial sense. It’s an inexpensive deal for Rosario, too; if he wasn’t getting a lot cash in 2024 regardless, there’s no higher place to play than someplace that can flatter his fee statistics upfront of a dip again into free company subsequent yr.
There’s one thing else at play right here, at the least probably. I can’t take a lot credit score for this perception, however I can also’t pin down who mentioned it first, as a result of I picked it up over the course of studying plenty of our remark sections. Principally, groups are getting so good at creating Rosario-esque gamers internally that they’re being devalued in free company. Should you can generate an average-glove, slightly-below-average-bat second baseman out of your farm system at will, there’s no purpose to supply somebody like Rosario a market fee in free company. The extra groups churn out 1-2 WAR center infielders, the much less that group of gamers will likely be in demand.
It doesn’t move cleanly up the road to extra completed hitters, or at the least it hasn’t but. You may have the ability to generate 95% of Amed Rosario for a discount fee, however the identical can’t be mentioned for Jose Altuve. However the center class of up-the-middle defenders – sure, I mentioned that on function – is feeling it of their wallets in the mean time. There are knock-on results value contemplating, too. The previous argument in favor of defensively versatile prospects who may battle to hit on the main league degree is that they might nonetheless change into common center infielders. Simply have a look at actually Amed Rosario for an instance of that. But when that type of participant isn’t value a lot on the open market anymore, if you will get these forms of hitters kind of freely, then the calculus adjustments.
It’s humorous to me that the Rays are those signing Rosario. For years, they’ve been those producing center infield prospects to keep away from hitting the free agent marketplace for these gamers. However now the tables have turned, they usually’re properly altering with the instances. Proper now, there are sufficient so-so (relative to the most effective main leaguers) center infielders which you can signal them for reasonable. So naturally, the Rays are doing simply that, and choosing those who most match their roster building type to take action. Good work, Rays; the remainder of baseball certainly gained’t be far behind on the identical plan.