Phillies Take the Walt Whit-Man Bridge

The Phillies have probably the most steady roster within the main leagues. Not the very best, probably the most steady. All 5 rotation spots are spoken for, the bullpen is fairly effectively settled, and a minimum of eight of their 9 beginning lineup spots have sturdy incumbents, all of them below workforce management via a minimum of 2025. 4 of them are below workforce management via 2027.

It is a workforce that likes to throw round massive cash in free company, however after re-signing Aaron Nola in November, and with an extension for Zack Wheeler trying possible, there isn’t actually anybody apparent for the Phillies to spend that cash on. So, after shoring up some Quad-A rotation depth with cut up contracts for Kolby Allard and Spencer Turnbull, the Dave Dombrowski-Sam Fuld duumvirate has turned its quartet of eyes to Whit Merrifield. The previous Royals and Blue Jays speedster will make $8 million assured, with an $8 million membership choice for 2025.

Sorry, that is first reference, and I forgot to make use of his full identify: Whitley David Merrifield, Whose Eleventh-Inning Stroll-off Single Led South Carolina to Its First Faculty World Sequence Title in 2010. It’s a mouthful. (On the threat of overdoing the Gamecock baseball trivia up high, Merrifield simply missed overlapping with Bryce Harper’s older brother Bryan, who pitched for Carolina the 12 months after Merrifield received drafted.)

Signing Merrifield is an try to handle the Phillies’ bench depth, which was a significant weak spot in 2023. It wasn’t the principal purpose the Phillies blew a 2-0 lead within the NLCS, but it surely’d make Rob Thomson’s job so much simpler if he had higher situational and pinch-hitting buttons to push than “Let’s see if Jake Cave ate his spinach this morning.”

The Phillies would in all probability prefer to improve at one or two positions, however any transfer would require them to do away with an incumbent starter — probably a Nick Castellanos or Taijuan Walker, each of whom have three years left on their contracts. The Phillies additionally don’t have a fantastic farm system, which additional limits alternatives for commerce. So a bench improve it’s.

Merrifield’s $8 million assure — $7 million in wage, plus a $1 million buyout of subsequent 12 months’s choice — takes the Phillies’ Aggressive Stability Tax quantity to $261.1 million for 2024. That places them into the surcharge bracket, penalizing groups that spend between $20 million and $40 million over the tax threshold, however they nonetheless have virtually $16 million in wiggle room earlier than they begin incurring draft choose penalties.

It’s value maintaining a tally of that scenario, however a possible tax invoice crunch can also be an issue that may be handled nearer to the commerce deadline.

So what does $8 million value of Merrifield get you lately?

I’ll lay out the optimistic spin on the scenario first, if solely to determine exactly what I intend to pour chilly water on a pair hundred phrases from now. Merrifield is a three-time All-Star with main league expertise at each place apart from shortstop and catcher. He led the American League in stolen bases 3 times and hits twice, and he has two seasons of a .300 batting common and a .340 or higher OBP.

Merrifield performed most of his video games final 12 months at second base and left area, that are the 2 positions at which the Phillies have a left-handed-hitting starter who’s a candidate to get relaxation towards unfavorable platoon matchups.

And whereas $8 million is so much to pay for a bench bat, wow, all that stuff certain looks like a steal to me!

Now for the chilly water. For starters, whereas Merrifield can theoretically play all around the diamond, his residence positions are these at which the Phillies are strongest defensively. Bryson Stott and Johan Rojas are each elite defenders at their respective positions. Brandon Marsh is a succesful defensive heart fielder; left area is a breeze for him. And if the Phillies have additional want of defensive assist, they have already got Edmundo Sosa to cowl the infield and Cristian Pache as a fourth outfielder. Each are right-handed hitters, like Merrifield.

And whereas Merrifield was the Rickey Henderson of the 2010s, he isn’t a fantastic share basestealer. He was 26-for-36 final season. Stott was 31-for-34, whereas Rojas was 14-for-15 in simply 59 video games. The Phillies aren’t an ideal baserunning workforce — Kyle Schwarber couldn’t outrun congressional process, and Harper runs the bases the best way a determined man performs poker — however they do have a ton of high-percentage basestealers: Stott, Rojas, J.T. Realmuto, and Trea Turner foremost amongst them.

Perhaps a few of that may rub off on Merrifield, however that’s one other side of the sport during which I don’t see him enhancing the Phillies a lot. Clearly there might be pinch operating alternatives for Schwarber or Castellanos, however once more, Pache might’ve executed that simply as effectively.

The spot Merrifield is finest suited to fill is as a situational starter within the outfield, in one in every of two roles: First, towards lefties when the Phillies don’t wish to use Marsh. The present process towards robust lefties is for the Phillies to begin Rojas in heart and Pache in left, which leaves the lineup woefully quick. If Merrifield is an offensive improve on both of these two — and it wouldn’t take a lot — that’d be fairly helpful.

After which there’s scenario no. 2: as a alternative for Rojas and/or Pache when the matchup or recreation state requires offense and never protection. I’d be inclined to let Rojas roll because the on a regular basis heart fielder, as a result of I really like each single factor about his recreation apart from the truth that he by no means walks, doesn’t hit the ball arduous, and hits it on the bottom. These flaws are few, however they’re, sadly, vitally essential. As for Pache, I don’t know why the Phillies are nonetheless carrying him, due to how completely his ability set overlaps with Rojas’.

Merrifield is one other quick right-handed-hitting outfielder, however he has an prolonged observe document of hitting effectively within the main leagues, which Rojas and Pache don’t.

However about that observe document. Plenty of the hype about Merrifield — his positional flexibility, his inexhaustible assortment of singles and doubles — relies on a conception of the participant that’s about three or 4 years previous now:

I’m ordinarily fairly forgiving relating to a participant placing up one unhealthy season, or having outperformed poor underlying numbers, however we’re getting into season three or 4 of a reasonably clear decline for Merrifield now. Not solely that, however the decline began in his age-30 season and continued all through his early 30s in exactly the way you’d anticipate a participant to age:

So yeah, it’s been about three years since Merrifield truly performed like an All-Star over a full season, and nothing is trending in a route that makes you suppose he’s headed again there.

Another desk earlier than I wrap issues up. There are gamers you’d anticipate projections methods to have a tough time with — truly, Rojas is a good instance — however Merrifield isn’t one in every of them. He has eight seasons of main league observe document, a mode of play that’s each frequent and constant, and an growing older curve that’s bent in accordance with historic norms. ZiPS must have a great deal with on Merrifield, and the outlook is fairly bleak:

I’ll finish with two caveats. The primary is that as a lot as this simply seems like Merrifield’s bat is slowing down, the Phillies have a great main league hitting coach, Kevin Lengthy, so there’s a non-zero chance that he can adapt one thing about Merrifield’s recreation to get him again as much as being a league-average hitter. Nothing apparent jumps out to me, but it surely occurs.

The opposite caveat is that he isn’t going to get something like 488 plate appearances. If the league thought Merrifield might play day-after-day, he would’ve gotten a multi-year contract value eight figures a season. The Phillies’ one-year-plus-option deal displays the probability that Merrifield is simply going to spend so much of time on the bench.

Merrifield’s recreation doesn’t actually lend itself to popping in a diminished function; he has fairly even platoon splits for his profession. However even when he’s unhealthy, there’s going to be a restrict to how a lot injury he can do, contemplating the Phillies’ aforementioned lineup stability. And if he finally ends up going south of an 80 wRC+, the Phillies below Dombrowski have had no qualms jettisoning an underperforming veteran on an costly one-year deal.

Till then, that is a minimum of an try to handle a critical space of want. It’s not as thrilling as signing Blake Snell or Cody Bellinger, however what’s?