A couple of articles in the past, I used to be participating in one in all my favourite pastimes: making up the names of non-existent statistics. What can I say? I received into writing as a result of I like lining phrases up in humorous methods. I received into baseball writing as a result of I like baseball. However when the 2 issues I like line up, then we’re actually cooking with gasoline.
The pretend statistic in query? Whomps per whiff. You may grasp what it’s immediately: how usually you completely whomp the ball, as in comparison with how usually your swing ends in nothing however a tiny gust of air and maybe an emphatic umpire response. Is that this a predictive statistic? I do not know in anyway, however I believed I’d attempt to see who’s good at it.
The excellent news: The great gamers are good. I outlined a whomp as a barrel, a whiff as a whiff, after which restricted it to gamers who noticed at the least 500 pitches in 2023. The perfect in baseball at it? Ronald Acuña Jr., who simply put up an all-time offensive season. Neat! Second finest? Mookie Betts, who completed second in MVP voting behind Acuña. Perhaps we’re on to one thing right here. Right here’s the highest 10 by that metric:
2023 Whomps Per Whiff Leaders
One factor that I like about this statistic is that it isn’t secretly rating gamers based mostly on their plate self-discipline. Betts doesn’t swing a lot, so he doesn’t whiff a lot. Seager is aggressive however selectively so. Luis Arraez is twelfth. Lars Nootbaar is thirteenth. These two are polar opposites who nonetheless are each good hitters.
As an additional benefit, the uncooked numbers look cheap regardless of principally being nonsense. There’s no reasoning behind the dimensions on whomps per whiff in anyway; it’s only one factor that I divided by one other factor. However I’ve already provide you with some simple guidelines of thumb for particular person seasons simply by this checklist. Above .300 is unbelievable. Above .200 remains to be elite; solely 23 gamers in baseball had been at .200 or increased in 2023. League common is within the .115-.120 vary, and under .100 is fairly dangerous. Austin Hedges checked in at .009, worst in baseball amongst gamers who barreled up at the least one batted ball.
This isn’t a one-year phenomenon. Listed below are the highest 15 hitters of the Statcast period in terms of whomps per whiff, minimal 2,000 pitches seen:
Statcast Period Whomps Per Whiff Leaders
Yeah, this checklist will most positively do. It has Alvarez, maybe essentially the most harmful hitter in baseball. It has Ortiz, who may need held that crown earlier than he retired. There are selective and highly effective varieties. There are guys like Choose and Alonso who obliterate the ball on contact. RamÃrez and Betts are time-traveling sorcerers able to barreling the ball up with out uncooked energy. Nootbaar is nice and I attempt to get him on each checklist that I can.
This statistic isn’t a straight checklist of the perfect hitters – Nootbaar’s on there, for instance, and he’s solely the most effective hitters in baseball in my creativeness. However I believe it’s a great way of fascinating gamers, similar to Vinnie Pasquantino. He was on the verge of a breakout earlier than getting damage final 12 months, and he would have been an enormous story coming into 2024 if the Royals had a greater crew round him.
Extra excellent news: For those who’re whomping lots for each whiff in a single 12 months, you’re prone to do it once more sooner or later. Extra particularly, there’s a fairly robust r-squared between 12 months one whomps per whiff and 12 months two whomps per whiff: 0.368, to be exact. For comparability’s sake, wRC+ checks in at round 0.18.
Much more promising: Much like how FIP is extra correlated with future ERA than ERA is with future ERA, whomps per whiff is extra correlated with wRC+ from one 12 months to the following than wRC+ is with itself. It’s not by lots, and admittedly, I really feel prefer it ought to be by much less, as a result of this statistic is unquestionably not capturing all the pieces there may be to learn about hitting. It’s not adjusting for something in any respect, and it’s ignoring an enormous quantity of knowledge. Acuña noticed practically 2,800 pitches in 2023, and I solely used 327 of them to provide you with this statistic.
May you do higher by including loads of bells and whistles? Nearly actually. I’ve to think about that the granular barrel cutoff is nice however not nice; you possibly can provide you with another approach of defining whomps that might get at extra good contact. There’s nothing about taking dangerous pitches in right here, both. However I like that this statistic is ludicrously easy. It’s not attempting to be DRC+ or xwOBA or predictive this or that. It’s what number of occasions you whomp for each time that you just whiff. Extra whomps are nice. Extra whiffs are dangerous. Finish of story.
OK, positive, not fairly finish of story. I used whomps per whiff to recommend some fascinating gamers for 2024 who you may need neglected. First, we’ve received Nelson Velázquez, who hit the snot out of the ball for the Royals in a cameo in 2023. The failings in his sport are apparent: He strikes out an excessive amount of. However it’s much less disastrous than it seems at first blush. His pitch recognition isn’t significantly dangerous, however he misses pretty usually when he swings. And people misses aren’t occurring in a vacuum; they’re occurring as a result of he’s swinging actually arduous and attempting to pummel the ball. I like these sorts of gamers, and suppose that the probabilities of Velázquez delivering a fantastic 2024 are sneakily excessive.
Max Kepler is type of a reverse Velázquez. He’s usually neglected as a result of he’s been round for a very long time, not as a result of he’s nonetheless breaking in. He’s boring, I get it. A profession 103 wRC+ over 3,800 plate appearances is the statistical equal of a sleeping emoji. However he’s received some fascinating stuff occurring below the hood, had a fantastic 2023, and did it by whomping the ball whereas sustaining his customary glorious plate self-discipline. Yeah, his BABIP is disappointing yearly, however contemplate me a Kepler believer.
Pasquantino doesn’t fairly rely as an neglected participant, as a result of he’s drawn hype from FanGraphs and different numbers-y sources for some time now. However how about Dominic Canzone? He had a desultory 2023 debut in Seattle, however he did so with some spectacular peripherals. He’s an influence monster with questionable swing choices; he desires to hit all the pieces to Jupiter — the planet, that’s, not the spring coaching house of the Cardinals and Marlins in Florida. However he makes fairly good contact for somebody who bops as arduous as he does, and I’m concerned about seeing a full season of him.
A fast pace spherical of different fascinating names, similar to this group of catchers on the high. Sean Murphy did nicely right here regardless of working out of gasoline within the second half. Sizzling free brokers Mitch Garver and Gary Sánchez each graded out nicely. Keibert Ruiz is a post-hype sleeper at this level, and if his protection is as dangerous because it graded out in 2023, this checklist gained’t save him. However he has outrageous bat management and will sneak onto this checklist in Michael Brantley/Luis Arraez fashion if he performs nicely sufficient behind the plate to proceed catching, and I believe that’s fascinating for a Nats crew that actually wants the assistance.
Final however not least, I believe that this statistic does a fantastic job of explaining a few of my participant crushes from latest years, and I believe a number of of these guys are higher than their reputations would recommend. Tommy Pham, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Wilmer Flores are gamers so boring that you just’d swear they had been made in a lab to play on the present iteration of the Giants. Two of them already do, and admit it, you wouldn’t be shocked if Pham finally ends up by the bay. Precise new Large Jorge Soler whomps fairly nicely per whiff, too. Perhaps the Giants have some intelligent inner title for this actual statistic.
I’ll go away you to experiment with it from there. However as is generally the case once I take present stats and contort them previous a spot the place you’ll be able to simply discover them on a FanGraphs leaderboard, I’ve made my very own. If you wish to see an inventory of whomps per whiff leaders each for 2023 and for the Statcast period, you’ll be able to merely click on right here. Have a enjoyable time exploring the joke statistic that really appears to be nice, and I’ll discuss to you once more quickly.