Fernando Tatis Jr. Must Get His Legs Again in Examine

It’s not simple to skip an entire yr of one thing and are available again with the identical stage of efficiency or talent. Baseball is not any totally different, even for the perfect of ballplayers. Fernando Tatis Jr. missed your complete 2022 season due to wrist accidents and a suspension for utilizing efficiency enhancing medicine. Whereas he was serving his suspension, he underwent labrum surgical procedure to restore a recurring problem that hampered his capacity to persistently keep on the sector. He was totally wholesome upon his return in 2023, and he remained that manner for your complete season.

But, regardless of avoiding harm for the primary full season of his profession, in 2023 Tatis had his least productive yr on the plate. His 113 wRC+ was 41 factors under the mark he had recorded over his first three huge league seasons. He additionally set profession lows in common (.257), on-base proportion (.322), slugging (.449), ISO (.191) and wOBA (.332). From a knowledge perspective, his high quality of contact took a major hit, although that isn’t all that stunning. Even after athletes return to the sector, it takes time for them to regain their explosiveness following critical accidents and surgical procedures. Ronald Acuña Jr. is an ideal instance of that. He tore his ACL in July 2021, underwent season-ending surgical procedure, and missed Atlanta’s first 19 video games of 2022. Like Tatis final yr, Acuña was principally wholesome for the remainder of the season however didn’t carry out as much as his requirements. Then, in fact, final yr he received the NL MVP and have become the primary participant ever to hit 40 house runs and steal 70 bases in a season.

Tatis will look to take an analogous path, however so as to take action, he’ll have to determine and deal with the basis causes (mechanics, swing selections, and so on.) of this huge drop off. Again in September, Ben Clemens investigated how spray angle on fly balls impacts among the hardest hitters within the recreation, Tatis being one among them. One of many key conclusions of Ben’s analysis is that hitters who pull their fly balls at an excessive charge, similar to Isaac Paredes, don’t do extra with these batted balls; they simply hit them far more ceaselessly, which permits them to outproduce others on fly balls, regardless of not having the eye-popping energy that we’d assume can be the principle causal variable.

That is notable for Tatis as a result of, over his first three seasons, he hit the ball with sufficient energy to do harm on fly balls regardless of the spray angle. That was not the case final yr.

From 2019 by means of 2021, Tatis’ wOBA on fly balls barely outpaced his xwOBA, whereas final yr, he tremendously underperformed his anticipated numbers. A lot of that may be defined by his pull charge dropping from 30.5% over his first three seasons to 21.8% in 2023. Nonetheless, that’s not the one variable at play right here, as a result of even when he hit straightaway fly balls in these first three years, he had a .764 wOBA. That’s properly under his .894 xwOBA, but it surely was nonetheless the third-highest mark amongst all batters from 2019–21 (min. 150 fly balls). Final season, although, Tatis completed with a .291 wOBA on straightaway fly balls, considerably decrease than his .653 xwOBA. Crushing balls to the deepest elements of the park was as soon as a Tatis superpower; in 2023, it was his kryptonite.

To higher perceive how this occurred, let’s take a look at how Tatis fared in numerous areas of the strike zone. By breaking down his efficiency in numerous zones, we’ll get a greater concept of any holes that will have developed in his swing. For all his woes final yr, Tatis continued to rake towards left-handed pitching (152 wRC+), so I’m going to concentrate on his splits vs. righties, towards whom he had a profession low 101 wRC+. The desk under exhibits how Tatis carried out towards pitches from righties in every third of the zone, first in 2021 after which in 2023.

There are drops throughout the board right here, however my goodness, what the heck occurred on the outer third? In 2021, Tatis ranked second in right-on-right wOBA on outer third pitches. This yr, in the event you had been a righty who might find on the outer third, Tatis would do the give you the results you want.

What’s the deal? Making contact wasn’t the issue, as a result of he truly whiffed much less typically towards the outer third final yr than he did in 2021. The actual problem was his high quality of contact. On his 67 batted balls towards pitches from righties on the outer third in 2021, his xwOBACON was .634. In 2023, it was .305. Ooof.

A change in swing path is usually responsible when a participant goes from destroying the outer third to hardly masking it in any respect. Let’s take a look at the video to determine what mechanical flaws altered his swing path. Listed here are some swings from 2021 towards outer third pitches from righties.

Here’s a customary heater away with a reasonably impartial physique angle (sorry Keegan Thompson):

This one is a low and away breaking ball with a reasonably aggressive physique adjustment to get the barrel beneath the ball:

And lastly, here’s a excessive heater that wanted an upright physique adjustment:

Every of those three swings exhibits how Tatis adjusted his physique in numerous methods to get to his barrel to outer third pitches. The swings are reciprocal, athletic, and cruel. His stability with the bottom is constant regardless of the posture of his higher physique. Now let’s take a look at three swings on related pitches from 2023, beginning with one other customary middle-away heater:

Here’s a swing on a low breaking ball with a physique adjustment the place Tatis couldn’t fairly create the identical angle as he did in 2021:

Then here’s a can of corn fly ball to middle on an up and away heater the place Tatis caught it off the tip of the barrel:

OK, now for some comparability. Off the rip, it’s clear that Tatis’ stride is working in a unique course. It’s extra impartial now than it was. As an alternative of working from a impartial stance right into a closed stride, he’s working from an open stance right into a impartial stride. The starkest comparability is how he dealt with Thompson’s heater in 2021 versus the 2023 one we noticed from Cristian Javier. In opposition to Javier, it was the precise sort of pitch you’d count on Tatis to drill into the alternative area hole, however his legs didn’t create sufficient area for him to get his barrel shifting within the optimum course. As an alternative of a laser reverse area homer, it was a measly liner to left for a simple out.

In 2021, Tatis had a extra steady base, which allowed him to create a extra drastic angle along with his higher physique towards the low breaking ball. That made the distinction between his line drive within the hole from 2021 and final yr’s line drive to the shortstop. On each of the excessive pitches, he had the tall posture he wanted to get on airplane, however in 2023, he couldn’t get his bat on the right horizontal angle to make flush contact, inflicting him to hit the ball off the tip of the bat as an alternative of the barrel.

As I at all times say, we’re searching for reciprocal actions. If he’s nonetheless kicking again aggressively however doesn’t have the motion beforehand to make the relax easy, then he’s creating asymmetrical actions. The closed stride and easy relax was his recipe for achievement in 2021. The logic right here is that when he strides closed, he has a extra steady connection to the bottom, main to raised positions to get his barrel on airplane.

He didn’t do this final yr, and in consequence, he created much less area for his higher physique to cowl the outer third successfully, which sapped his manufacturing on fly balls. As a result of he was getting back from surgical procedure, it’s doable that he wasn’t comfy making the identical actions he had previously, although it’s laborious to consider that may be the one cause for shedding his mechanics. In spite of everything, his surgical procedure was on his shoulder, and it is a decrease physique downside. That mentioned, even when he knew what was incorrect, his shoulder might have restricted the quantity of additional swings he might take to repair it in the course of the season.

Now that he’s wholesome, he ought to be capable to do the drills and cage work essential to right his mechanics and return to his earlier rotational patterns.