Clayton Kershaw Is a Dodger — Once more

With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on offers lasting 10 and 12 years, respectively, the Dodgers are getting into a brand new period with regards to their headlining superstars — to not take something away from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, each of whom stay at or close to the highest of their respective video games. On Monday, we discovered that the subsequent stage of Dodger baseball can even embrace one other acquainted celebrity: The New York Submit’s Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman reported that free agent Clayton Kershaw will return to the one crew for which he’s ever pitched.

The precise phrases of the deal — which is pending a bodily on Thursday — have but to emerge at this writing, however USA Immediately‘s Bob Nightengale reported that the deal is a “one-year, incentive-laden contract,” whereas The Athletic’s Andy McCullough added that the contract features a participant possibility for 2025. If exercised, that will enable Kershaw to affix Ohtani — who gained’t pitch in 2024 after present process reconstructive surgical procedure on his UCL this previous September — within the Dodgers’ rotation.

Participant choices have a tendency to hold benefits with regards to Aggressive Steadiness Tax accounting, a big concern for the Dodgers, who rank second in payroll (each precise and CBT-based) solely to the Mets and are almost $12 million over the fourth-tier tax threshold of $297 million even earlier than including Kershaw’s wage. For instance, Justin Turner’s two-year, $21.7 million take care of the Pink Sox final yr referred to as for a base wage of $8.3 million for 2023, then a $13.4 million possibility and $6.7 million buyout. By opting out, Turner made $15 million on a deal whose common annual worth was simply $10.85 million.

Kershaw made $20 million final yr however figures to be assured much less cash for 2024, although bonuses for begins and/or innings may make up among the distinction. The timing of the transfer is extra vital than the greenback quantity, as a result of neither the pitcher nor the Dodgers know precisely when the 35-year-old future Corridor of Famer will throw his subsequent aggressive pitch. On November 3, he underwent surgical procedure to restore the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder, a process that left him “hopeful to return to play in some unspecified time in the future subsequent summer time” (as he wrote through Instagram) however hardly assured of such a return given the importance of the process. Pulling from what I wrote in relation to the surgical procedure on the time:

The three glenohumeral ligaments (superior, center, and inferior) join the scapula to the humerus. Successfully, they stabilize the ball of the higher arm bone throughout the socket of the shoulder blade. The capsule surrounds the joint and is bolstered by the rotator cuff muscle tissue.

…As finest we will inform from the minimal particulars supplied, the surgical procedure doesn’t appear to be instantly associated to his rotator cuff or labrum; such surgical procedures would possibly put him out of motion for a whole season. Capsule surgical procedure isn’t any small matter, nevertheless, so it’s hardly out of the query that he might be sidelined for a full season as nicely, if there are setbacks in his rehab. The excellent news is that doesn’t appear to be the baseline assumption.

Provided that, it’s notable that as a result of the Dodgers open their season by enjoying the Padres in Seoul, South Korea on March 20 and 21, they’re allowed to place gamers on the 60-day injured listing as of Thursday, February 8. A participant on the 60-day IL doesn’t depend towards the 40-man roster restrict, that means that no corresponding transfer should be made to clear area for Kershaw. Had his return turn into official earlier than that, it might have meant one much less participant the crew may shield. As it’s, the crew seemingly gained’t make Ryan Brasier’s two-year deal official till Thursday, both, as soon as they transfer Tommy John surgical procedure recipients Tony Gonsolin and Dustin Could to the 60-day IL.

That is the third straight offseason wherein Kershaw has re-signed with the Dodgers as a free agent, and as with the final two, the Dallas native weighed the potential for pitching nearer to dwelling by signing with the Rangers. This time round, they’re defending world champions, however they’re additionally already spending huge cash on three different pitchers rehabbing from main surgical procedures, specifically final yr’s marquee free agent Jacob deGrom, who underwent his second Tommy John process final June and is eying August for his return; midseason acquisition Max Scherzer, who underwent surgical procedure for a herniated disc in mid-December and is concentrating on a midsummer return; and December free agent addition Tyler Mahle, who underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final Could and will return someday this summer time. For them, including a rehabbing Kershaw made much less sense than including a more healthy model would have in years previous, notably with the crew affected by the Diamond Sports activities Group’s chapter and anticipated to have their native tv income lowered by as a lot as 15% for 2024.

Whether or not he pitches past 2024 or not, Kershaw’s return to the fold provides him the possibility to craft a extra dignified exit than he would have if he’d left the Dodgers this winter. In Sport 1 of final yr’s Division Sequence, he couldn’t get any of his pitches to work reliably, retired simply one of many eight Diamondbacks he confronted whereas being charged with six runs, and was unable to articulate his plans for the longer term after the Dodgers have been swept, telling reporters, “I don’t know the best way to reply that proper now.”

As prior to now, the Dodgers revered Kershaw’s need to take the time to weigh his choices, remaining in contact with the crew as he went by surgical procedure and plotted out his subsequent steps. “His rehab is coming alongside rather well,” mentioned supervisor Dave Roberts on the the crew’s fan fest on Saturday. “I believe his thought course of proper now’s dominate the rehab course of and get one thing performed when it is smart.”

When he was out there in 2023, Kershaw usually pitched fairly nicely, posting a 2.46 ERA in 131.2 innings and making his tenth NL All-Star crew. Left shoulder soreness despatched him to the IL earlier than he may pitch within the All-Star Sport, nevertheless, and after lacking six weeks, he threw simply 36.1 innings in eight post-injury begins, with the standard of his stuff (as measured by each the Stuff+ and PitchingBot fashions) and his outcomes each noticeably down. Choosing up a desk I made in November:

Scratch the floor beneath his tidy ERA — which was only a hair beneath his profession mark of two.48, and truly decreased after his absence — and also you’ll discover some unsettling indicators. Kershaw’s 4.03 FIP was his highest mark since his 2008 rookie season, his 3.82 xERA his highest of the Statcast period, his 7.6% stroll charge his highest since 2010, his 18.5% strikeout-to-walk differential his lowest since ’12, and so forth. Contemplating his post-injury splits (4.61 xERA, 5.40 FIP, plus the pitch high quality metrics above), it isn’t so stunning he obtained knocked round within the postseason; certainly, it’s truthful to wonder if he ought to have been on the market in any respect given his situation.

When he does return to motion, Kershaw will be a part of a rotation that’s been radically reshaped for the reason that center of final Could. The Springfield Nuclear Energy Plant softball crew caught collectively extra carefully than the quintet that began for the Dodgers from Could 13–17:

That desk doesn’t even embrace Lance Lynn, whom the Dodgers acquired from the White Sox on July 30 and who pitched so unimpressively after changing Syndergaard that the crew declined his $18 million possibility; he signed a one-year, $10 million take care of the Cardinals.

As for the brand new look, along with Yamamoto, whom the Dodgers signed to a 12-year, $325 million deal final month, the crew traded for Tyler Glasnow, who signed a four-year, $110 million extension as a part of the deal, then added James Paxton on a one-year, $7 million deal. Walker Buehler, who underwent late-2022 Tommy John surgical procedure, will return in Could, because the Dodgers need to restrict his workload with an eye fixed in the direction of having him out there in October; Emmet Sheehan, a rookie final yr, will seemingly take his spot. The one starter from the tip of final season who will likely be returning to his submit instantly is Bobby Miller, recent off a stellar rookie marketing campaign.

That’s half a dozen pitchers proper there for what might be a six-man rotation, not less than at occasions. Righties Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, and Kyle Damage will function depth at Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, with lefty Ryan Yarbrough out there to offer size as a starter or bulk pitcher as nicely. With Could hoping to return in some unspecified time in the future after the All-Star break, and Kershaw additionally coming again, the Dodgers ought to be capable of mix-and-match their approach round so many pitchers with damage and workload issues. Finally, they need to be capable of assemble a stronger playoff rotation than final yr, when Kershaw, Miller, and Lynn mixed for simply 4.2 innings towards the Diamondbacks.

Upon returning, Kershaw will resume his pursuit of three,000 strikeouts, most likely the final main milestone inside his attain. He’s 56 strikeouts away from turning into the twentieth pitcher to succeed in that plateau, and can be simply the fourth southpaw to take action after Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and CC Sabathia. Former teammate Zack Greinke is 21 strikeouts away from 3,000, and will beat Kershaw to the milestone if he decides to pitch in 2024. Each would be a part of Scherzer and Justin Verlander among the many lively pitchers in that membership, although any approach you slice it, all 4 are headed for Cooperstown, nearly actually on the primary poll. This resolution leaves intact Kershaw’s likelihood to turn into simply the seventh post-World Conflict II pitcher to succeed in the Corridor after spending his total profession with one crew, after Whitey Ford (Yankees 1950–67), Sandy Koufax (1955–66), Don Drysdale (1956-69), Bob Gibson (Cardinals 1959–75), Jim Palmer (Orioles 1965–84), and Mariano Rivera (Yankees 1995–2013).

Given their star energy and their depth, the Dodgers didn’t have to retain Kershaw so as to be heavy favorites to win the Nationwide League West. Whereas it wasn’t important from a aggressive standpoint, it’s nonetheless a welcome little bit of preserved continuity within the face of adjustments. With the retirement of Adam Wainwright, the returning Kershaw turns into the longest-tenured participant along with his present crew, beating out Salvador Perez, who joined the Royals group 4 months after Kershaw was drafted in 2006. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t imply a lot if Kershaw couldn’t assist the crew. By re-signing him, the Dodgers have added a pitcher who, even amid the accidents which have restricted him to a median of 127 innings since 2021, has remained an above-average pitcher, one who’s nonetheless able to producing thrills.