Are you, or have you ever ever been, ready to make choices about main league workforce personnel? Do you want buying and selling? Have you ever ever held a dime and wished it have been two nickels, or vice versa? In that case, keep the place you might be, stay calm, and Jerry Dipoto will probably be calling you quickly to make some offers. Like this one:
MLB righties Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa together with prospects OF Gabriel Gonzalez and RHP Darren Bowen is the 4 participant return for Polanco, per sources. Imagine money can also be concerned. https://t.co/GQDKtwaogh
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) January 30, 2024
Prospects! Relievers! Reclamation tasks! On a regular basis regulars! This one has slightly little bit of the whole lot. However it’s extra sophisticated than that, as a result of it’s not your customary offseason commerce, the place one workforce is downgrading to search for the longer term whereas the opposite builds for at the moment. Each of those groups have playoff hopes this 12 months, they usually’re every utilizing this commerce to enhance their possibilities. It’s a bizarre one.
Get Good
See, this commerce helps the Mariners get good – or a minimum of higher. Earlier than making this deal, they have been planning on heading into 2024 with Josh Rojas and Luis Urías overlaying second and third base between them. I’m as huge of an Urías fan as you’ll discover, however that’s too little protection. Rojas was unhealthy final 12 months, and Urías was worse. Positive, they each picked it up after altering groups mid-season, however we’re speaking ugly stats – a 78 and 83 wRC+, respectively. Our projection programs assume Urías will get better to round league common, however they’re much less optimistic about Rojas; he’s extra of a platoon piece.
Plugging Jorge Polanco into the combo makes the whole lot work so much higher. Now there are three guys for 2 spots, which supplies the workforce loads of choices. Rojas can relaxation towards lefties, Polanco can spell J.P. Crawford at brief with somebody filling in for him at second, and Dylan Moore can get into the combo as effectively when he’s not enjoying the outfield. When you can’t get celebrity infielders, getting a pleasant huge mixture of choices is a stable plan B.
To be clear, Polanco isn’t a celebrity. He’s a first-division common, a second baseman with above-average offense because of some sneaky energy. He launched 14 homers in half a season final 12 months, although he’s usually extra doubles than bombs. Defensively, he’s slightly under common at second, although I’m stunned by how negatively Statcast grades him (–16 Outs Above Common during the last three seasons) and assume he’s higher than the numbers there. (DRS agrees with me.) I believe the Depth Charts projection seems to be proper over a full season: 2.9 WAR in 602 plate appearances. The one draw back? Polanco has logged a mixed 788 plate appearances during the last two years.
Nonetheless, the M’s have backups on the prepared. Dropping a month’s price of Polanco manufacturing is much less of a ache when you possibly can plug in Urías or Rojas as a substitute of a minor leaguer. Additionally, Seattle gave up little or no by way of projected 2024 manufacturing to get Polanco – a swingman who would solely crack the rotation if issues went fallacious and a medium-leverage reliever. It is a clear method so as to add wins straight away.
Shuffle Up
Positive, getting Polanco is good, however you possibly can’t have a look at this deal in a vacuum. Earlier than the Mariners acquired him, they wanted so as to add somebody to play second or third as a result of they beforehand had traded away a special model of Polanco — third baseman Eugenio Suárez. Like Polanco, Suárez has been a significantly better offensive participant than the Rojas/Urías duo. They flipped Suárez for backup catcher Seby Zavala and reliever Carlos Vargas; in doing so, they saved roughly $13 million {dollars}. Then they picked up Urías in change for a doubtlessly good reliever (Isaiah Campbell) and paid him $5 million. The web deal: plus one Urías, minus one Suárez, plus one backup catcher, and $8 million in financial savings.
The Robbie Ray commerce with the Giants that landed Anthony DeSclafani in Seattle furthers the large combinatorial muddle of the Mariners’ offers. As Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes reported, they’ll cowl an mixture $8 million of DeScalfani’s $12 million deal – the $6 million that San Francisco was already overlaying plus $2 million of their very own. Justin Topa is incomes a bit greater than the key league minimal. Polanco, alternatively, will make $10.5 million this 12 months earlier than he has the choice to succeed in free company. Which means the Mariners added roughly $6 million in 2024 wage on this commerce – they’ll save $500,000 by changing Topa with somebody making the league minimal and $4 million by not paying DeSclafani, then pay Polanco $10.5 for a internet achieve of $6 million.
The up to date commerce tree seems to be like this: minus Suárez, plus Polanco and Urías, minus one reliever (minus Topa and Campbell, plus Vargas), plus one backup catcher, plus $2 million in financial savings… and minus two prospects. For 2024, I believe that’s inarguably successful, even when it’s a finicky and trade-heavy solution to obtain it. I’d clearly take Urías and Polanco over Suárez; I like every of them about as a lot as him on their very own. Backup catchers and relievers are roughly equal in worth. The Mariners appear to be actually good at working with relievers to enhance them, too, so I wouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into how the 2 guys they traded produced in 2023, or the one they added, for that matter. The $2 million in financial savings is nothing to sneeze at; that would fund a transform of proprietor John Stanton’s workplace (I’ve been watching a variety of Love It or Record It not too long ago) or possibly be put again into the workforce.
However the Prospects
Proper, however the prospects! Questioning about their long-term worth, I did what everybody does on this state of affairs: bought detailed notes from Eric Longenhagen about them. Wait, you guys don’t do that? You’re actually lacking out. Right here’s Gabriel Gonzalez, the extra extremely regarded of the 2:
I’ve tended to be slightly decrease than the consensus on 20-year-old outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez as a result of he’s a bodily mature nook outfielder with 30-grade plate self-discipline. Gonzalez had a 55% swing fee and 37% chase fee in 2023. He loved the Cal League hitting atmosphere to the tune of a 150 wRC+ previous to a promotion to Excessive-A Everett, after which his efficiency got here crashing right down to Earth. Up till then he had crushed the decrease minors regardless of these underlying points, which make his profile a prospect Jenga tower. Gonzalez will not be with out advantage as a prospect; he has good in-zone really feel for contact and above-average exit velocities for his age. As a result of he’s a stocky man I’m not inclined to challenge a ton on his uncooked energy (108 mph max exit velo in 2023, good for a 19-year-old however under MLB common). He’s going to must hold raking as he climbs to be an influence common. It’s extra possible he turns right into a Harold Ramírez sort of function participant.
That’s not a really thrilling report. We’re decrease on him than a variety of the opposite prospecting shops, however for what it’s price (not very a lot, maybe), I’m with Eric on this one. If I’m getting a bat-only prospect, I’d favor louder pop, extra projectability, or a extra discerning eye on the plate. That’s to not say he 100% received’t pan out, however regardless of the torrid numbers in A-Ball, he’s nonetheless a challenge. A 40+ grade sounds about proper to me; he’ll slot in at thirteenth on our Twins listing.
As befits my hipster tendencies, I like Darren Bowen extra, although he’s a much less thrilling prospect. Once more, Eric:
Bowen was a Division-II draftee out of UNC Pembroke who had a powerful professional debut as an old-for-A-ball starter at Modesto, the place he had a 3.88 ERA in 15 begins. He started the season working only a couple innings at a time with a fastball that was averaging 95 mph. As he was stretched out throughout the remainder of the season, he would typically work as many as 5 or 6 innings, and his fastball velocity fell into the 91-94 mph vary on common, although when he executes his fastball to the highest of the strike zone, it has a really shallow angle that’s laborious to hit, even at 92 mph. Bowen’s upper-70s slider has big pure motion and may very well be a premium weapon if his command and total consistency enhance. Both his mid-80s cutter or changeup has to enhance if he’s going to have the repertoire depth to start out. I’m not often inclined to challenge closely on the changeups of pitchers whose arm swings are this lengthy, nevertheless it’s commonplace for small faculty prospects like Bowen to develop considerably upon receiving professional instruction for some time. He’s additionally so lanky and such a clean on-mound operator that it’s believable he might find yourself throwing tougher deeper into his 20s. He’s a superb developmental beginning pitching prospect who might need simply been scratching the floor in 2023.
Thirteenth-round picks who stroll 11% of batters in A-ball at 22 often don’t pan out. Let’s not go loopy simply but. However I purchase Eric’s level about small faculty pitchers having lower-hanging fruit out there for improvement groups, and Bowen’s uncooked stuff is intriguing. There are many flat-plane fastball guys who reside within the decrease 90s, notably if they’ve a number of helpful secondaries to go together with it. Dart throws like this often don’t work out, however if you happen to can take 10 of them, one will most likely hit. There’s a variety of probabilistic considering concerned in operating a farm system, and Bowen is the correct of man to bulk up your odds.
Are both of those guys integral to Seattle’s future? Positively not. The almost definitely final result is that neither will ever be a significant league common. However that’s simply how the prospect sport works. In getting Polanco, the Mariners’ future bought slightly bit worse in expectation, and their capability to swing related trades went down considerably. I really assume it’s an inexpensive change, however the Mariners might need been in a position to do higher in the event that they have been slightly extra versatile in what they have been keen to just accept in return for a number of attention-grabbing prospects.
Proper, the Twins
It’s enjoyable to take a look at the whole lot from Seattle’s perspective as a result of they’ve been on a commerce bonanza this offseason. I bought to make a house renovation joke in there, too. What’s to not love? However the Twins have had an attention-grabbing offseason of their very own, and this commerce simply continues to muddle the combination. On the floor, buying and selling Polanco doesn’t damage their 2024 possibilities a lot. Edouard Julien will deal with second, with Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer offering backup protection. Prime prospect Brooks Lee is already in Triple-A and would possibly debut within the majors this 12 months; he’s blocked from shortstop by Carlos Correa, so he’ll play second and boot Julien to a extra becoming defensive house.
If the whole lot goes proper, actually, the workforce would possibly hardly miss Polanco. A cascade of youthful choices might totally replicate his worth. However there’s a reasonably clear downside with that: a variety of issues must go proper for Polanco to be rendered pointless. It’s not clear that Julien can deal with second base full-time. Positive, Lee is in Triple-A, however he batted .237/.304/.428 there, and it’s no assure that he’ll be a median hitter within the bigs straight away, and even ever. Accidents matter, too; subtract one among these guys from the combo attributable to harm and one other attributable to underperformance, and the Twins may very well be a reasonably naked cabinet after they’re fascinated by profitable the AL Central.
If it weren’t for DeSclafani and Topa, I’d hate this commerce for them (effectively, clearly). However although they’re buying and selling a stable common in the midst of a aggressive cycle, I believe they bought sufficient in return that the deal works. They inarguably want pitching. The again of their rotation is stuffed with “yeah, possibly” varieties. Chris Paddack appeared nice final 12 months – in precisely 14.2 innings of labor throughout 4 ranges. Louie Varland appeared like the true deal in Triple-A, however bought hit laborious in his second chunk on the main league apple. Bailey Ober – OK, I like Ober fairly a bit actually, so I’m not gonna say something imply about him, however my level is that the Twins have each a skinny and dangerous rotation.
DeSclafani provides them an insurance coverage coverage of types. I wouldn’t count on him to be out there all 12 months, as a result of he’s had his fair proportion of accidents, however 15-20 begins and a little bit of aid work will increase Minnesota’s ground significantly.
Likewise, I’m undecided what they’ll get out of Topa, nevertheless it’ll most likely be higher than whoever he’s changing. The Twins aid corps closed final 12 months on fireplace – however they did so with a variety of assist from Paddack and Varland. Their bullpen is good on the again finish, with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar all good choices. However it will get skinny rapidly after that, and Topa suits properly into that hole.
Is Topa nearly as good as his 2023 numbers (2.61 ERA in 69 innings)? Nearly assuredly not. He had the form of house run luck you hardly ever see, allowed the bottom BABIP of his profession, and walked nearly nobody. Betting on some regression is prudent. I do like his new cutter, which supplies him extra utility towards opposite-handed batters (40% utilization towards lefties, 6% towards righties), however I’ve him down as a 3.75-4.00 ERA form of man, not a lights-out stopper.
Total, I believe DeSclafani and Topa enhance Minnesota’s probabilities of making the playoffs. In the identical method that shedding Polanco challenges its offensive depth, including two possible choices to the pitching employees alleviates some points there.
As a bonus, the Twins are simply as budget-constrained because the Mariners, so saving a tiny bit of cash actually helps. GM Derek Falvey instructed Hayes that he deliberate to place the price financial savings from this deal again into the roster. Positive, it’s solely $6 million, however if you happen to’re simply on the lookout for some offensive depth, $6 million goes a great distance. Signal a utility infielder of some sort, and even an outfielder that frees Castro from his duties there, and you’ll most likely make this complete factor near a wash on offense contemplating what number of good hitters Minnesota needed to squeeze right into a nine-man lineup final 12 months.
Grades
I’m giving the Mariners a standalone C- however a contingent B+. They traded so much to get Polanco — the going fee for prospects like Gonzalez and Bowen is a bit greater than this — however they didn’t have a lot of a alternative as a result of their trade-spree offseason had left them too gentle on offense. They badly wanted a first-division common, they usually didn’t surrender any 2024 fairness to get one. Will this commerce damage them down the road? I imply, possibly. However I believe they’re proper to reside for the now, even when the price is slightly eye-watering.
The Twins simply get a straight A. They have been within the place of not getting that a lot marginal worth out of Polanco as a result of they only so occurred to have a pile of viable second basemen ready behind him. In addition they wanted pitching depth, much more so than your common playoff contender. The plain transfer was to deal Polanco for pitching assist or wage aid, they usually did each. Getting two attention-grabbing prospects within the combine is a large bonus. 10/10, would commerce once more.