The Tigers Wrangle a Colt

The Detroit Tigers locked up one in every of their prime younger prospects to a long-term extension over the weekend, signing infielder Colt Keith to a six-year contract value $28.6 million assured, together with a buyout after 12 months six. With three staff choices totaling an extra $38 million, Keith won’t hit free company till after the 2032 season. These choices will be enriched additional, by as much as $18 million, relying on Keith’s success at incomes MVP votes, Silver Slugger awards, and All-Star appearances. The deal has a most worth of $82 million over 9 years.

One in every of Detroit’s latest struggles has been its incapacity to search out and develop offensive expertise. This wasn’t the case in the course of the staff’s run of success within the early 2010s, with future Corridor of Famer Miguel Cabrera as its anchor. However as Cabrera and Victor Martinez aged, and different key contributors, equivalent to Prince Fielder, J.D. Martinez and Austin Jackson, left for different groups, the Tigers’ offensive output dropped to the underside of the league. Except for Nick Castellanos, who was traded in 2019, not one of the younger hitters developing by means of the system have panned out.

That stated, the Tigers have seen some indicators of hope over the previous couple of years. When wholesome, Riley Greene has been superb, and whereas Spencer Torkelson had a tough begin to his huge league profession, he improved considerably within the second half of 2023. Detroit nonetheless wants extra, although, and that will come within the type of Keith, a fifth-round choose from the COVID-abbreviated 2020 draft. Keith confirmed promise in 2022, hitting .301/.370/.544 for West Michigan of the Excessive-A Midwest League, however he injured his shoulder badly on a pickoff try in June, costing him the remainder of the season. He recovered sufficient to play within the Arizona Fall League, the place he hit .344/.463/.541 in 80 plate appearances over 19 video games.

Regardless of the quick season, he ranked atop Detroit’s prospect record present in our humble residence. Splitting 2023 between Double- and Triple-A, Keith stayed wholesome and hit a mixed .306/.380/.552 with 27 homers and 38 doubles. ZiPS interprets that efficiency right into a .268/.328/.454, 20 homer line, nicely under the extent of phenom, however greater than respectable for a second base/third base prospect in his first go on the excessive minors.

With a contract that may stretch for 9 years, let’s crank out the long-term ZiPS projection for Keith.

Whereas these aren’t star-level projections, they’re those of a participant you’d prefer to maintain round by means of his prime. There are many acquainted names amongst Keith’s ZiPS comps, equivalent to Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock, Jedd Gyorko, Castellanos himself, Rafael Devers, Ryan Zimmerman, Travis Fryman, and Joe Crede. No, none of them have been Corridor of Famers – although it’s believable that Devers might hit sufficient homers to show the exception – however every have been strong huge leaguers.

One of many largest remaining questions round Keith is what place he’ll play within the majors. He’s performed each second and third base, and seems to be under common at each. The probabilistic coordinate methodology that ZiPS makes use of graded Keith at about eight runs under common at second base, per 1300 innings, in 2023 and 6 runs under common at third. My colleague Eric Longenhagen feels that Keith is extra prone to stick at second, quite than third.

Throughout his keep in Toledo, Keith started to see extra time at second base quite than his native third. He’s a nasty defender at each spots however has a a lot higher probability at turning into satisfactory (learn: hidden) at second, the place a few of Keith’s points with throwing are masked.

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Keith has bulked up significantly since signing, and the consequences of his elevated dimension are evident on protection. As soon as a good guess to remain on the center infield, he’s now preventing simply to remain at third. He’s stiff and hulking, his actions are nicely under common, and whereas he reveals you a giant arm when he will get to wind up and actually let it eat, he struggles to throw from odd platforms. It’s possible a staff might stay with him enjoying third base situationally, but it surely’s not excellent, and Colt is a 30-grade defender proper now.

In an ideal world, Keith would stick at one of many two positions, with Jace Jung manning the opposite. One of many good issues a few rebuild is that groups get the possibility to experiment, and the Tigers make the most of that with Keith. Enjoying him in left area can be an ideal deal much less thrilling, however not a disastrous end result, with imply projected OPS+ numbers within the excessive 110s throughout his prime. Left area Keith profiles equally to Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who as probably the greatest outfielders accessible in free company this offseason managed to snag a three-year cope with the Diamondbacks.

There are dangers that include signing a participant with so little skilled expertise, however these are mirrored within the worth. Sure, $28.6 million is a number of money, however not a lot within the context of baseball, and the ZiPS projection for Keith suggests a $38 million provide, taking into account the diminished salaries of the cost-controlled years. Related extensions to Jon Singleton and Scott Kingery didn’t work out significantly nicely for the groups that made them, specifically the Astros and Phillies, however these offers weren’t detrimental, both. The upside for Detroit right here is appreciable.

Are the Tigers playoff contenders in 2024? In all probability not. However they’re not so distant that it might be a black swan occasion in the event that they made some noise within the AL Central race or threatened to seize the final wild card spot. In the event that they succeed, it’s going to doubtless be largely attributable to gamers like Keith taking a step ahead.