Two-time Cy Younger Award winner Blake Snell remains to be a free agent towards the top of the third week of January, and there reportedly stays a big hole between his asking value and what his potential suitors are keen to pay him. Snell’s upside is simple, however there are some considerations about his long-term worth. He has not been a mannequin of sturdiness or consistency all through his eight-year profession, and maybe most regarding is that even at his finest, he permits rather a lot walks.
Final 12 months, regardless of his general excellence, Snell led the majors with 99 walks, 16 greater than the following two guys, Charlie Morton and Johan Oviedo. By way of BB%, his 13.3% charge beats out Morton’s by 1.7 proportion factors. Spending north of $200 million on a pitcher who provides up so many free passes, even one in every of Snell’s caliber, is a troublesome promote. Nevertheless, Snell isn’t your typical wild factor who doesn’t know the place the ball goes after he releases it. Somewhat, there seems to an intentionality to the place he misses. His misses are steadily in places the place the worst consequence is a wasted pitch out of the zone, reasonably than over the center of the plate the place batters can do extra injury. Such an strategy might be extremely unpleasing to look at, nevertheless it has confirmed to be efficient for him, nonetheless.
That he has a propensity for giving up walks and stopping runs forces us to contemplate that walks alone won’t be one of the best encapsulation of his command. His means to reside across the edges and depart his misses in low danger places is a talent. To defend that notion, I’ll current some information outlining the place Snell throws his pitches, and the way that compares to his friends. Let’s begin with fastball command. Under is a desk of final 12 months’s high 20 pitchers in fastball shadow zone proportion, out of the 119 pitchers who threw at the very least 1,000 heaters:
Snell’s positioning between command artists like George Kirby and Aaron Nola above him, and Pablo López and Sonny Grey under him is surprising. (Hunter Greene and Reid Detmers are much less regarded for his or her command, however even their stroll charges had been, respectively, 3.7 and 4 proportion factors decrease than Snell’s 13.3%.) When trying a little bit additional, Snell had the third lowest frequency of coronary heart proportion on his heater final 12 months. It’s one of many the explanation why he was capable of keep away from the lengthy ball so properly. His 0.75 HR/9 ranked fourth amongst certified pitchers. This isn’t a brand new development for him, both. His fastball Shadow Zone% was even higher in 2022. His 26.6% Coronary heart% was 2.6 proportion factors larger than it was final 12 months, nevertheless it nonetheless ranked seventeenth among the many 117 pitchers who threw at the very least 1,000 fastballs, and consequently, he allowed simply 0.77 HR/9.
There’s extra to Snell than simply his fastball, although. In any case, he threw heaters lower than half the time final 12 months. To get a real sense of his command, we additionally want to judge his three different pitches: curveball, slider, changeup. Snell ranked second amongst all pitchers in breaking ball run worth final 12 months, so presumably he has a great deal with on his curve and slider. For this desk, I’ll use chase zone proportion:
Breaking Ball Chase Zone%
The information offered right here combines all of the breaking balls a pitcher throws. In my finest effort to maintain the denominators related (this one has 106 pitchers), the minimal variety of breaking balls is about at 600. As soon as once more, Snell has good positioning. Most of this high 20 checklist options pitchers who throw a excessive quantity of curveballs and place them properly, like Corbin Burnes, Framber Valdez, and Zac Gallen. Together with his nasty slider, Spencer Strider is a little bit of an outlier on this group, however different guys with excessive velocity sliders start to pop up within the 20s. Level being, Snell is among the finest pitchers in baseball on the subject of touchdown breaking balls in aggressive spots to get whiffs, even when they’re out of the zone. This half was anticipated, given his elite whiff charges on each his slider and curveball.
This doesn’t inform the complete story about how Snell makes use of his breaking balls, although. Sure, we all know he will get loads of chases and whiffs, however he does it in another way than some other pitcher in baseball. He doesn’t give hitters many alternatives to hit errors as a result of, as a rule, he refuses to throw his breaking pitches anyplace in or across the strike zone. Of the 149 pitchers in baseball who threw at the very least 500 breaking balls in 2023, Snell had the lowest mixed charge of pitches within the coronary heart and shadow zones by 9 proportion factors. 9! He’s the one pitcher on that checklist who throws his breaking balls in these two zones lower than half the time.
It turns into much more clear that his avoiding the zone is by design reasonably than a sign that he has poor command when what occurs when he doesn’t find his breaking balls in addition to he would really like. Final 12 months, he threw 29.5% of his breaking pitches within the waste zone, the highest charge within the majors. That’s 9.4 proportion factors larger than the following man, Shane Bieber.
His unwillingness to provide in results in plenty of noncompetitive pitches, however that’s the purpose. Batters can’t crush pitches in the event that they don’t swing, and even after they do, the pitches are breaking far sufficient exterior the zone that hitters can’t do a lot with them, anyway. Contemplating that final 12 months he additionally principally ditched his slider towards right-handed hitters in favor of his changeup, there’s good purpose to consider he has a a lot better understanding of find out how to execute and optimize his arsenal.
Talking of the changeup, the plus command development holds up there as properly. Final 12 months, he landed the pitch within the shadow zone 50% of the time, the fifth highest charge among the many 107 pitchers who threw at the very least 300 offspeed pitches.
Particularly trying on the shadow zone is essential for this pitch, as a result of it’s not the type of changeup or forkball that has depraved drop and falls out of the zone. As a substitute, it’s a pitch that tunnels together with his heater and is roughly 9 mph slower with out massive time motion. Its success hinges on touchdown it within the shadow zone with consistency. Snell had by no means executed that till final 12 months. After fading the pitch for many of his San Diego tenure, he bumped the utilization again up over 20%.
Often that is the purpose in an evaluation the place I’d lay out some video highlighting how this information seems in observe, however that doesn’t really feel crucial right here. For one, I’ve already advised you ways visually unpleasing watching Snell stroll the home might be. Should you’ve watched him navigate a recreation, you already know the sensation. Should you haven’t, then right here are some video games the place he walks guys for nitpicking across the edges.
Typical knowledge would counsel that due to all of the walks, Snell has poor command, and due to this fact is a dangerous funding for groups trying to signal him. Sure, it’s true that he permits an uncomfortable quantity of walks, and for a lesser pitcher, this is able to not be excellent. Besides, Snell isn’t a lesser pitcher, and his strategy isn’t standard. Regardless of the walks, possibly even due to them, Snell is adept at run prevention. He has a great really feel for retaining his pitches in locations the place he gained’t get burned too badly. In any case, bases on balls are higher than lengthy balls, proper?