Fast trivia query, trusted readers: What number of groups repeated as division champions final yr? That’s to say, who gained division titles in each 2022 and 2023?
The reply is three. The Braves gained the NL East (by 14 extra video games than they did in 2022), the Dodgers gained the NL West (by six video games fewer, although nonetheless by 16 video games) and the Astros gained the AL West (in a tie, after successful it by 16 video games in 2022). That’s par for the course. Listed below are the variety of defending champs to win once more every of the earlier 5 years:
2022: Two
2021: Two
2020: Three
2019: Three
2018: Three
So, 4 out of the final six seasons, we’ve had three repeat division champions, a very sticky quantity when you think about the truncated 2020 season. In order we head into 2024, ought to we count on to see three once more?
Right here’s a have a look at the six division champions from final yr, ranked by the chance that they’ll win their division once more. Repeating: It’s not really easy to do. (Every membership is listed with its 2023 document and margin of victory within the division.)
1. Dodgers (NL West)
100-62 (16 video games over D-backs)
The Dodgers can be a terrific option to prime this checklist it doesn’t matter what they did this offseason, contemplating they’ve gained 10 of the final 11 NL West titles. However, uh, effectively … the Dodgers have certainly accomplished some stuff this offseason. This 100-win crew added Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernández and a sure two-time MVP named Shohei Ohtani. The most effective participant they misplaced off final yr’s crew is J.D. Martinez, who’s changed within the DH spot, in fact, by Ohtani.
And it’s not as if the remainder of the division made enormous steps towards the Dodgers. The Padres don’t have Juan Soto anymore and will lose Blake Snell, too. The Giants completed beneath .500 and noticed prime free-agent targets Ohtani and Yamamoto decide the Dodgers as a substitute. The D-backs have made some additions to a crew that did go to the World Collection final yr, however they’re additionally a crew that completed 16 video games behind Los Angeles.
The Dodgers ran away from everybody on this division final yr, they bought tons higher within the offseason and no clear NL West challenger has emerged. It was not troublesome to rank them No. 1.
2. Braves (NL East)
104-58 (14 video games over Phillies)
You’ll be able to inform how assured the Braves are about their capability to succeed in the playoffs in 2024 by their offseason strategy. They didn’t make large, sweeping, change-the-foundation-of-your-team strikes. Slightly, they made tweaks. These are the form of transactions that gained’t make a lot distinction over the course of a 162-game season however may make all of the distinction in a brief sequence within the chilly of October. You most likely can’t depend on Chris Sale for 200 innings anymore, however for 15 innings with all the pieces on the road? Not a whole lot of guys you’d like on the market extra.
The Braves have gained six straight division titles, however they’ve by no means gained their division by as many video games as they did in 2023. With their core in place, they’re clearly not reinventing the wheel right here. They’ll face steeper division competitors than the Dodgers will, if simply because the Mets’ 2024 season can’t be almost as troublesome as their 2023 was, and the Phillies shall be further motivated after their NLCS loss to the D-backs. However there’s a purpose everybody was chasing the Braves a yr in the past. It’s the identical purpose they’ll all be chasing them once more this yr.
3. Astros (AL West)
90-72 (Gained tiebreaker with Rangers)
Talking of streaks, the final full season wherein the Astros didn’t win the AL West was 2016, which was Alex Bregman’s rookie season. It has been some time.
There have been indicators that the Astros’ grip on the division – and, actually, the entire AL – could also be loosening, although. First there’s the truth that their division (and intrastate) rival, the Rangers, simply gained their first World Collection after beating Houston in a seven-game ALCS. However the core of this crew stays as robust as any in baseball: Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Abreu/Tucker is a gauntlet for any pitcher, they’ll have Justin Verlander atop that rotation for a full season this time round and now Josh Hader looms at the back of the bullpen.
It is a robust name – there’s an enormous hole between Nos. 2 and three on this checklist – notably with the Rangers trying simply nearly as good as they did final yr (once they tied the Astros atop this division). However with as many pitching accidents because the Rangers have to start out the season, we’ll go along with the Astros. Actually, although, every of the final 4 divisions on this checklist are very a lot up within the air.
4. Twins (AL Central)
87-75 (9 video games over Tigers)
Are the Twins the least imposing crew on this checklist? They most likely are. They gained solely 87 video games final yr, they misplaced two of their greatest beginning pitchers in Sonny Grey (to the Cardinals) and Kenta Maeda (to these division-rival Tigers), they usually have made minimal additions to the roster.
So why are the Twins nonetheless this excessive on the checklist? It’s their division. Detroit might be Minnesota’s largest competitors within the AL Central, except you suppose the very same Guardians who gained 76 video games in 2023 can in some way achieve 10-plus wins in 2024. Should you imagine the Tigers – who’ve been extra aggressive this offseason – shall be that a lot better this yr, perhaps you suppose they will make a cost.
Nonetheless, the Twins had a nine-game cushion final yr, and that was regardless of getting little or no from two of the gamers anticipated to steer the crew: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Minnesota additionally may get a full season this time round from Royce Lewis (the No. 1 total Draft decide in 2017), who has battled accidents however was improbable in 58 video games as a rookie final yr. Minnesota nonetheless may take a step ahead in 2024 – however it may not must on this division.
5. Orioles (AL East)
101-61 (2 video games over Rays)
Even with none beginning pitching additions this offseason – and one supposes there’s nonetheless time – the Orioles needs to be thought-about the favourite within the AL East. They’ve bought all of the younger gamers they’d final yr, all with one other yr’s price of expertise, plus in some unspecified time in the future they’ll add Jackson Holliday, who could have extra expertise than any of these gamers. (They barely even have area for Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo, all of whom, like Holliday at No. 1, rank amongst MLB Pipeline’s prime 27 prospects.)
However the lack of pitching additions (except for nearer Craig Kimbrel) has eliminated a whole lot of margin for error, notably on this division, which has some extremely motivated opponents. The Blue Jays are at risk of getting their Vlad Jr.-led core go their complete prime with out successful a playoff recreation. The Crimson Sox have a brand new management group keen to clean the unhealthy style out of their followers’ mouths. The Rays have a great deal of pitching, as all the time, and two future lineup mainstays in Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero about to turn into the brand new items they construct round. And the Yankees, beneath immense strain after a disappointing 2023, landed Juan Soto (who’s trying to make the very best free-agent case) and Marcus Stroman.
The whole lot largely went proper for the Orioles in 2023. Can we depend on that in 2024? The O’s certain appear to be relying on it. The remainder of the division goes to make it robust.
6. Brewers (NL Central)
92-70 (9 video games over Cubs)
It seems that the Brewers didn’t in reality dismantle their roster this offseason. Corbin Burnes remains to be right here. So is Devin Williams. So is Freddy Peralta. So is Christian Yelich. So is Willy Adames. Regardless of all of the rumors and scuttlebutt, there was not an exodus of expertise following supervisor Craig Counsell out the door after he left for the Cubs. In actual fact, there’s expertise coming in, most notably No. 2 total prospect Jackson Chourio, who appears able to step into the lineup on Opening Day after inking a record-setting contract. Plus, if Milwaukee’s reported take care of Rhys Hoskins goes by way of, that ought to present the membership with a much-needed middle-of-the-order bat.
However the Brewers are nonetheless the logical decide on the backside of this checklist. Their rotation and bullpen each look significantly thinner than final season, which implies they’ll be relying extra on a lineup that, honest to say, isn’t all the time essentially the most dependable or productive. And it stays to be seen if new skipper Pat Murphy is as adept as Counsell was at squeezing essentially the most out of his roster.
The division additionally needs to be a lot more durable than it was in 2023. The Reds have added to a core that’s oozing with expertise. The Cubs have their outdated supervisor and have added key items in Shōta Imanaga and Michael Busch – they usually will not be accomplished. The Pirates needs to be higher, and youthful, than they have been in 2023, and bear in mind, they gained extra video games final yr than they’ve since 2018. And the Cardinals can’t presumably repeat the nightmare they went by way of final yr. This division seems like a complete tossup. It may go the Brewers’ approach once more. However the path to victory appears a lot narrower.