Billy Wagner is in his ninth 12 months on the Corridor of Fame poll. He has two possibilities left, and he is getting shut. Here is his case for stepping into Cooperstown.
Wagner was one of the vital dominant closers ever. The flamethrowing left-hander notched 422 saves in his 16-year profession with the Astros, Phillies, Mets, Pink Sox and Braves. He racked up 1,196 strikeouts. He had a 2.31 ERA. He was a seven-time All-Star and the NL Reliever of the 12 months in 1999, and he helped lead his groups to the postseason seven instances.
The BBWAA voters appear to be coming round on Wagner, too — he is made huge positive factors on the poll in recent times, as much as a career-best 68.1% share of the vote final 12 months. Wagner solely wants slightly extra to achieve the 75% threshold wanted to make the Corridor of Fame. He is trending towards election in his remaining years of eligibility.
Listed below are 5 the reason why Wagner could be a deserving Corridor of Famer.
1) He stacks as much as the opposite Corridor of Fame relievers
There are eight relievers within the Corridor of Fame: Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter. How can we evaluate Wagner’s Corridor of Fame credentials to theirs?
A method is to make use of their reliever JAWS rating — a quantity that mixes a reduction pitcher’s complete profession Wins Above Alternative, his seven-year peak WAR, his Win Chance Added and his efficiency in several leverage conditions. It is an all-in-one quantity to check relievers all through baseball historical past and set up a Corridor of Fame benchmark.
Wagner measures as much as the Corridor of Famers. He is the sixth-best nearer of all time by reliever JAWS, and the one 5 relievers higher than him are already in Cooperstown: Rivera, Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman. Wagner’s reliever JAWS rating is definitely larger than Smith’s, Fingers’ and Sutter’s.
In different phrases, Wagner was as priceless as a Corridor of Fame reliever … so why should not he be one?
2) Solely Mo stored runs off the board higher
Wagner’s profession ERA was 2.31. His profession ERA+ was 187 — which means he was 87% higher than a league-average pitcher.
Of all pitchers within the Reside Ball Period — not simply relievers — solely Rivera, the best nearer in historical past, was higher than Wagner in these classes. Mo had a 2.21 ERA and 205 ERA+.
Lowest ERA, Reside Ball Period
Min. 750 innings pitched
By ERA+ particularly, he dwarfs each Corridor of Fame reliever however Rivera. ERA+ compares a pitcher to league common — 100 is common, so Wagner’s 205 mark means he was over twice nearly as good as that. Of the Corridor of Famers, Wilhelm (147) is subsequent after Wagner, and so they go all the best way right down to Eckersley (116).
Whether or not you simply take a look at Wagner’s regular ERA, or alter it to see how a lot better he was than the remainder of the league when he was pitching, he was one of many best possible relievers ever.
3) His fee stats are a number of the finest ever
Wagner struck out hitters at one of many highest charges in historical past, and he allowed hits and baserunners much less usually than practically another pitcher.
Wagner struck out a 3rd of all of the batters he confronted in his profession and fanned nearly 12 batters per 9 innings. Nobody who’s pitched as many innings as Wagner has a better strikeout fee or Ok/9.
Highest Ok/9 of all time
Min. 900 innings pitched
1. Billy Wagner: 11.9
2. (tie) Blake Snell / Chris Sale: 11.1
4. (tie) Robbie Ray / Jacob deGrom: 11.0
Highest Ok% of all time
Min. 900 innings pitched
1. Billy Wagner: 33.2%
2. Jacob deGrom: 30.8%
3. Chris Sale: 30.5%
4. Blake Snell: 29.7%
5. Max Scherzer: 29.4%
Discover that every one these different pitchers are nonetheless lively. Wagner is surrounded on the Ok% and Ok/9 leaderboards by present-day pitchers, who get to pitch within the highest-strikeout period of baseball historical past.
There’s additionally Wagner’s .187 profession batting common allowed and 0.998 profession whip. Going by the identical innings-pitched baseline, his batting common is the bottom allowed by any pitcher ever, and his WHIP is third-lowest behind simply deGrom and Addie Joss, who pitched within the Deadball Period.
4) He has the saves, and the Ok’s
It is not like Wagner’s counting stats are missing. He is one among solely eight members of the 400-save membership, and one among solely 14 pitchers with 1,000 or extra strikeouts as a reliever.
Wagner’s 422 saves rank sixth all-time. His 1,196 strikeouts as a reliever rank fourth all-time and are a file for lefty relievers (solely Wilhelm, Gossage and Smith are forward of him).
And there is just one nearer in MLB historical past with each extra saves and extra Ok’s than Wagner. That is Smith, with 478 saves and 1,225 Ok’s as a reliever, who was elected to the Corridor of Fame in 2019.
5) He was one of many best archetypal closers
Wagner debuted within the Nineties, after Dennis Eckersley had ushered within the period of the ninth-inning nearer. And beginning within the mid-’90s, 12 months after 12 months, there was Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner.
Wagner recorded 9 30-save seasons. Since Eckersley’s first 12 months as a real nearer in 1988, solely Rivera (15) and Hoffman (14) have had extra. Amongst present closers, solely Jansen, Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman (eight every) are approaching Wagner.
Wagner additionally recorded 4 100-strikeout seasons, a rarity for a ninth-inning nearer. Since 1988, solely Dellin Betances (5) has extra. Wagner’s 10 seasons with a minimum of 75 Ok’s as a reliever are tied for second-most of any nearer since 1988 behind Jansen (11).
The strikeouts have been Wagner’s greatest edge over his contemporaries within the Corridor of Fame. Rivera solely had one 100-Ok season and 4 75-Ok seasons. Hoffman had two 100-Ok seasons and 5 75-Ok seasons.