Rhys Hoskins is a free agent, and it’s type of bizarre. The 30-year-old first baseman spent 10 seasons within the Phillies group, six of them (plus one full 12 months spent on the injured record) with the most important league membership. For a time, he was one of many solely vibrant spots on a very moribund workforce, however ultimately the large fella settled into a job as a supporting participant and de facto table-setter for a lineup constructed round Bryce Harper. His achievements in that function embrace the Bat Spike dwelling run, a three-run dinger off Spencer Strider within the 2022 NLDS — the Phillies’ first dwelling playoff sport in 11 years.
Whereas it was surpassed within the creativeness by Harper’s pennant-winning homer within the rain later that October, the picture of Hoskins’ celebration lives on in reminiscence as a extremely localized model of the José Bautista bat flip for people who find themselves deeply upset by the decline within the high quality of Wawa’s sandwich bread for the reason that chain went nationwide. You need to watch the house run once more? I do. Let’s watch it once more.
Hoskins had his ups and downs with Phillies followers through the years. His debut season — 18 dwelling runs in simply 50 video games in 2017 — sparked expectations that he’d flip into what Pete Alonso ultimately turned, plus 5 factors of stroll charge. After that, Hoskins bounced from first base to left discipline when he most likely ought to’ve been a DH. (The Phillies like to signal too many first basemen and attempt to cram all of them onto the sector on the identical time; aside from a particularly darkish 18 months the place Tommy Joseph had the place locked down, the Phillies have used first basemen or designated hitters in left discipline nearly nonstop for the reason that days of Travis Lee and Pat Burrell on the flip of the century.)
That’s not a knock on Hoskins. I used to be making an attempt to think about Philadelphia athletes from my lifetime who 1) hung round so long as Hoskins did and a pair of) by no means went by a tough patch with the followers and native speaking heads. The record: Brian Dawkins, and perhaps Chase Utley. It’s a straightforward crowd to please on the whole, however a very robust crowd to please all the time.
Hoskins was denied his stroll 12 months, and an element within the Phillies’ protection of their 2022 pennant, when he tore his ACL in spring coaching final 12 months. A late scramble to return to the bench for the playoffs got here up only a week or two brief. Harper moved to first, and he’s staying there for the foreseeable future, partially to accommodate Kyle Schwarber — who’s even worse defensively than Hoskins — as a full-time DH.
In order that’s it. Hoskins is searching for work for the primary time since faculty. Let’s discover him a house.
The worth that Hoskins brings is clear. His energy might be streaky on a game-to-game foundation — a hazard of being a 3 true outcome-heavy hitter — however within the combination, he’s probably the most constant gamers in baseball. Hoskins is a profession .242/.353/492 hitter, with a 13.5% stroll charge and a 23.9% strikeout charge. That’s a profession wRC+ of 126.
In 4 full seasons within the majors (discounting Hoskins’ 50-game rookie season and the 41 video games he performed in 2020), he’s by no means been price greater than 2.4 WAR, nor lower than 2.0. His full-season profession low in wRC+ is 112, whereas his full-season profession excessive is 128. You’ll be able to like or dislike the entire package deal, however you already know what you’re going to get. And this free agent class is gentle on confirmed sluggers; we’ve seen multi-year offers with eight-figure AAVs distributed to the likes of Jeimer Candelario and Mitch Garver — gamers who might be higher than Hoskins at their greatest, however with query marks about what their final flooring is.
So why isn’t Hoskins in line for the same deal? Properly, he may be, however his choices are restricted. Leaving apart the truth that he didn’t play final 12 months, and shall be 31 on St. Patrick’s Day, his glove is an issue. The Phillies made the final word willpower that his bat is definitely worth the occasional bobbled throw. (Although the winter of 2022-23 noticed a lot relitigation of Hoskins’ failure to forestall the game-winning run in Recreation 5 of the World Collection, which ended up being his final significant act in a Phillies uniform.)
Hoskins ought to get a beginning job someplace, not simply due to his monitor file however as a result of the 13-man pitching workers doesn’t depart a lot room for a devoted right-handed bench bat and not using a defensive dwelling. And therein lies the difficulty: Hoskins is a DH who’s usable however not excellent at first base.
And there simply aren’t that many roles for a participant like that. Not even with the reputationally defense-agnostic Phillies, who might need stored Hoskins if he’d supplied even an iota of defensive flexibility. In idea, there are 60 full-time jobs for first basemen and designated hitters, however most of these are occupied.
Under are the incumbent starters for every workforce at first base and DH, in line with RosterResource. All of that is topic to alter, in fact. For instance, whereas I used to be penning this submit, the Cubs traded for Michael Busch, who should see not less than a while at Hoskins’ positions within the majors this 12 months. However by my rely, 41 of those jobs are spoken for. Both the incumbent is ensconced into the place by contract or prospect standing, or is simply flat-out higher than Hoskins proper now.
5 groups have a participant listed at DH who’s largely there as a result of somebody has to fill the spot on the depth chart, and who will seemingly contribute on the main league degree at one other place. These are marked in blue. 5 others may have openings if they may transfer the participant presently taking on that spot. (I hold getting spam calls on my cellphone, and I’m fairly certain it’s Reds POBO Nick Krall making an attempt to commerce me Jonathan India, although I don’t even have a baseball workforce to place him on.) These spots are marked in purple. The remaining 9 openings are in gold:
Present Standing of 1B/DH Beginning Jobs
All informed, this makes 17 out of 30 groups with a theoretical want for Hoskins. In actuality, that quantity is way decrease. Even when the Reds do handle to commerce India, Krall has stated his workforce might be out of the free agent market. I don’t assume the Astros are going to dump José Abreu, and whereas Hoskins would most likely be an improve over Avisaíl García in Miami or Ty France in Seattle, it’s unlikely that both of these groups would transfer an present contract for a $10 million-plus free agent who does a whole lot of the identical issues.
The Nationals, Pirates, and Rays are most likely not a match except Hoskins’ worth comes means down from the low eight-figure vary. And as a lot as I’d like to see the Orioles do something in anyway to complement their once-in-a-franchise-history whale fall of up-the-middle expertise, I gained’t maintain my breath on them signing Hoskins.
So I’ll point out 4 groups that I’d prefer to see go after Hoskins, a few of which have been linked with him on the rumor mill, some not.
The primary is the Cubs. Earlier than the Busch commerce, first base in that lineup was most likely probably the most evident single positional weak point on any would-be playoff contender, and I’d’ve wager cash on Hoskins ending up there ultimately. Buying Busch mitigates that weak point, and it’s completely superb to enter the season with him because the beginning first baseman, however he’s a 26-year-old rookie who lit up Triple-A final 12 months, however struggled in a 27-game audition with the Dodgers.
However the threat in beginning a rookie first baseman, plus Christopher Morel’s means to play elsewhere on the diamond, doesn’t essentially shut the door on Hoskins as a DH. Greater than that, the Cubs may add Hoskins and nonetheless have the funds for left beneath the primary tax threshold to exit and get one of many stars remaining on the free agent market. I nonetheless assume this is smart as a touchdown spot.
The Rangers must go into the tax to signal Hoskins, however they only gained the World Collection by balling out in free company, so the iron has by no means been hotter. Extra to the purpose, Texas has misplaced its two most-used designated hitters — Garver and Robbie Grossman — to free company and so far has not changed them. With the remainder of the World Collection-winning lineup intact, and Evan Carter taking part in left discipline full-time within the majors, designated hitter is the one remaining gap within the Rangers’ beginning lineup. And whereas many groups would use DH as a rotational spot to spell starters, the Rangers don’t actually have an inspiring bench. Hoskins has been linked with Toronto greater than Texas this offseason, however I believe he makes extra sense with the Rangers than the Blue Jays.
The final two potential suits are much more speculative. The primary is Milwaukee; the Brewers are presently in line to start out Jake Bauers, acquired from the Yankees in a commerce on the non-tender deadline in November, at first base. It seems like Bauers has been round endlessly, as he debuted with the Rays in 2018 and has been traded for half the gamers within the league since then. However the subsequent time Bauers places up a wRC+ of 100 or higher in a season of any size would be the first.
That’s simply not a tenable answer. Over the previous few years, the Brewers have cycled by some enjoyable however restricted first base choices, like Rowdy Tellez and Daniel Vogelbach. Hoskins would signify an improve on that kind of participant whereas retaining the avuncular and in any other case bratwursty vibe. It’d be an incredible match, however it’d require the Brewers pursuing a reasonably big-name free agent.
The final possibility that intrigues me is just a little sacrilegious. However the Mets are already means over the past significant tax threshold, their present plan at DH is DJ Stewart in some type of a platoon scenario, and Alonso’s identify has been swirling in commerce rumors for a 12 months. Come on. You’re not not less than just a little intrigued by the potential of a Rhys Hoskins heel flip?
Possibly it is a little an excessive amount of of a deep dive on speculating about one particular free agent, however there’s a bigger level in regards to the paradoxical nature of a free agent who lives and dies together with his bat. Groups will take a look at the prospect of spending on a longtime first base-DH kind like Hoskins, or Josh Bell, and balk. As a result of the job appears simple. Any sufficiently barrel-chested dude can go up there, draw a pair walks, and slug 25 or 30 dwelling runs. Why would you pay $10 million or $15 million a 12 months for somebody who can do this, however isn’t going to be an MVP-type middle-of-the-order anchor?
It’s a good query, and it’s restricted the marketplace for sluggers like Hoskins. However when a workforce tries to make a Hoskins out of spare components and misses, the draw back might be substantial, particularly for a possible contender. Arguably much more so for a small-market contender — like Milwaukee — that should discover each dwelling run it may well beneath the sofa cushions.