For the final two offseasons, the Mets have operated with shock and awe, signing each free agent that wasn’t nailed down en path to constructing a workforce that would commerce blows with the Braves atop the NL East. As you’ll have heard, that didn’t precisely pan out. So this offseason, they’re taking a brand new tack with a string of fascinating signings that play under the highest of the market. That development continued over the weekend, when the Mets signed Sean Manaea to a two-year, $28 million deal, as Jon Heyman first reported.
As Kyle Kishimoto famous in our free agent preview, Manaea spent 2023 swinging wildly between roles for a Giants workforce that wanted pitching assist in all places. He was a starter, lengthy reliever, setup man, regardless of the state of affairs demanded. He carried out adequately in that robust job, however when he opted out of his contract after the season, it appeared possible that he’d search for a full-time beginning spot. That’s the place he’ll slot in on the Mets, who’ve spent the offseason remaking a rotation that had a variety of holes to fill after 2023’s commerce spree.
Manaea is a difficult pitcher to pin down. He’s a sinker-dominant lefty – solely possibly it’s a four-seamer, or at the very least it behaves loads like one if it’s not. More and more, he makes use of that pitch, which has extra arm-side motion than experience, to overlook bats and complement his slider and changeup. He’s a soft-tosser – solely he added just a few ticks of velocity in 2023. That wasn’t a fluke of his utilization, both; he averaged 93.4 mph as a starter and 93.6 mph as a reliever after sitting 89-91 for the final half decade.
It will get weirder than that. His slider and changeup don’t actually seem like good out pitches. Stuff+ and PitchingBot metrics agree that each are barely below-average in stuff, although they each agree that he instructions them properly. So he’s a command-first man – besides he points walks and information strikeouts at higher-than-league-average charges. His changeup has traditionally been his finest pitch – solely it seemed a lot worse in 2023, with a 9% swinging strike charge, at the same time as his total outcomes improved. His slider is a wierd one, too; it’s a sluggish gyro providing that ties batters in knots once they swing, however doesn’t induce a ton of chases.
Put one other manner: Sean Manaea is an enigma. I’m nearly sure that he’s a very good pitcher, however I’d wrestle to clarify precisely why. He’s constantly delivered innings-eater kind outcomes, however the way in which he does it has modified over time. His changeup is his finest pitch when it comes to outcomes – however he’s been far worse towards righties than lefties. And final yr’s information is confused by that hybrid position. Projection techniques assume he’s someplace round league common, however they’re in no way certain of what his position can be, which makes that projection rather more tenuous.
In some methods, that uncertainty fits the Mets. When you take them at face worth, and I feel it is best to on this case, they’re making an attempt to construct a long-term juggernaut, the type of workforce that yearly tries to win 95-100 video games. It’s actually arduous to inhabit that house and not using a pitching workers that’s lengthy on above-average arms. The Braves managed it final yr, however that was with an historic offense, they usually’ve spent the offseason making an attempt to make sure that they’ve a extra sturdy rotation going ahead. So, too, have the Dodgers. It’s loads simpler to win a bundle of video games if in case you have at the very least three excellent starters and an enormous group of acceptable pitchers behind them.
What I like about Manaea on the Mets is that he may match into both of these two teams. I feel {that a} mid-3.00s ERA season is totally in vary for him; he has a variety of instruments that might add as much as a very stable pitcher. However as a result of that end result is much from sure, he comes at a relative cut price charge; $14 million is kind of Lance Lynn cash, however I feel the excessive finish of Manaea’s vary of outcomes is comfortably higher than that. If he’s nice, plug him into the highest half of your rotation. If he’s extra of a fifth starter kind or will get overwhelmed out by 5 different starters, these are each roles he’s acquainted with. Signal three guys like Manaea, and also you may find yourself with one plus starter and two stable swingmen. I feel it’s a clever technique to take dangers like that once you’re making an attempt to construct a sturdy pitching group.
Solely, possibly to not take dangers like this? The contract isn’t a straight two-year pact; it comes with an opt-out after the 2024 season. And that flips the chance round meaningfully. If Manaea has a robust season as a starter, he’ll definitely decide out; once more, one yr and $14 million is back-end starter cash as of late, and he’d get greater than that coming off of a very good season. If he lands within the backside a part of his vary of outcomes, he’ll keep, however not as a difference-maker.
That makes this contract a bizarre slot in my eyes. It quantities to sacrificing some worth in 2025 – both Manaea can be gone once you needed him, or there when his 2024 season was disappointing – in alternate for a very good charge in 2024. That doesn’t actually match with how I anticipate the Mets to function; I’d anticipate them to be shopping for optionality by way of workforce choices relatively than promoting it by way of opt-outs. Put one other manner, I feel that Manaea’s unstable profile fits their wants, however his contract implies that the volatility will nearly by no means play out of their favor in 2025.
To some extent, that is in all probability a lot ado about nothing. If Manaea is superior in 2024 and needs to decide out, the Mets can at all times work out an extension; if he’s nice, he’ll presumably be predisposed to stick with the workforce. Possibly that finally ends up costing them a little bit extra, however you may consider this yr as an audition. I’m fairly assured that the Mets will want loads of pitching assist in free company in coming years; their rebuilt farm system is heavy on place gamers and lightweight on influence arms.
Put one other manner, the Mets really want to check out a variety of guys like Manaea. If this deal is what it took to get him within the door, so be it. This contract isn’t going to restrict their payroll flexibility or make them unable to compete for future expertise, however not having sufficient playable beginning pitching may be the distinction between a repeat of 2023 and a playoff berth. The workforce has loads of expertise – we predict they’ve a top-10 place participant group and common pitching – however depth is certainly a priority.
Possibly that, then, is the lesson of this deal. Pitchers with Manaea’s normal profile are in demand, as a result of groups each have to fill a variety of beginning innings within the common season and wish to acquire a gaggle of three or 4 fascinating starters and hope one among them turns right into a playoff-caliber starter. I’d wager on at the very least one among Manaea, Luis Severino, or Adrian Houser delivering an incredible 2024, one that might give the Mets at the very least three first rate choices in a playoff sequence. I like that wager much more with three pitchers to select from than two; in different phrases, the Severino and Houser acquisitions would really feel incomplete with out extra pitchers of that normal tier.
If these pitchers are in demand, groups should compete for his or her companies. And Manaea’s big selection of outcomes is a two-way road; he himself is unquestionably conscious of it. Put two and two collectively – a variety of groups need his companies, and he is aware of that 2024 will do loads to have an effect on his future earnings potential – and it makes a variety of sense that he’d ask for an opt-out to separate the workforce that almost all desires his companies from the remainder of the pack. It’s all properly and good to say that it’s unusual workforce conduct to present high-risk, high-reward pitchers the possibility to decide out of their offers, but it surely’s fully possible that with out that decide out, the Mets wouldn’t have been in a position to signal Manaea within the first place.
Let’s go away it at that: This seems like a deal that each side get one thing out of. The Mets seem like contenders in 2024, and this signing helps cement that. Manaea will get the beginning position he absolutely coveted, and likewise will get an opportunity to re-engage with free company subsequent winter if he’s pretty much as good as he hopes. This seems like a good deal to me, in essentially the most optimistic sense of the time period.