The Mariners and Rays had a busy Friday final week, combining to make three trades involving seven gamers. Seattle received issues began with a three-player swap with the San Francisco Giants, delivery Robbie Ray to the Bay Space in trade for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani, and money concerns. Then the M’s and the Rays exchanged José Caballero and Luke Raley, earlier than Tampa Bay completed off the day by sending Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis for Richie Palacios. Each the Mariners and Rays dealt from areas of power to handle areas of want, giving each groups better roster readability because the offseason strikes in the direction of spring coaching.
Simply two years in the past, the three gamers concerned within the first commerce of the day would have garnered a lot larger headlines. In 2021, Ray, Haniger, and DeSclafani mixed to build up 9.4 WAR, with Ray successful the American League Cy Younger award. Within the two seasons since then, nevertheless, the trio has mixed for simply 3.3 WAR, largely because of a litany of accidents. Ray was utterly wholesome in 2022, however he wasn’t in a position to replicate his award-winning efficiency in his first season in Seattle after which made only a single begin in 2023 earlier than needing Tommy John surgical procedure. Haniger has by no means been a mannequin of well being — he’s performed simply two full seasons in his seven-year profession — and missed time with ankle, again, indirect, and forearm accidents the previous two seasons. DeSclafani managed simply 5 begins in 2022 because of a recurring ankle harm, then wore down in the direction of the top of final 12 months with shoulder fatigue and forearm irritation.
The Mariners haven’t been quiet concerning the payroll limitations they’re working with this offseason; it’s why they moved on from Eugenio Suárez for a pittance and used Jarred Kelenic to clear the contracts of Marco Gonzales and Evan White. Ray is owed $73 million over the following three years, together with $23 million in wage this 12 months. After you consider Haniger and DeSclafani’s salaries, the money concerns the Mariners are receiving make the swap money impartial in 2024, however the financial savings for Seattle in 2025 and 2026 are far more vital. As well as, rehabbing from his elbow harm will maintain Ray sidelined till July or August. The Mariners’ beginning rotation is clearly their staff power, and whereas getting Ray again throughout the canine days of summer season would have been good, he was a luxurious they determined they couldn’t afford. That harm gave the M’s a handy excuse to clear $50 million in future payroll whereas nonetheless getting some on-field worth again for his or her roster in 2024.
In reuniting with Haniger and including Raley, the Mariners addressed a transparent want of their outfield corners. They’d some mixture of Dominic Canzone, Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell, and Zach DeLoach penciled into the 2 spots flanking Julio Rodríguez. Throughout his final wholesome season, Haniger posted a 120 wRC+, with glorious batted ball high quality backing the outcomes. Accidents have wracked his physique, however he nonetheless managed a ten.9% barrel price and a 46.9% hard-hit price final 12 months in restricted motion, each of that are inside the norms he’s established since breaking out in 2018. And regardless of strikeout and stroll charges that appeared like they had been trending within the improper route, his underlying plate self-discipline metrics all appeared unchanged.
Nonetheless, whereas his batted ball peripherals appeared high quality, it looks like Haniger struggled with the cavernous dimensions of Oracle Park. His batted ball distribution appeared pretty regular whereas he was hitting at house, however his precise wOBA on contact lagged behind his anticipated wOBA on contact by 60 factors. On the street, issues had been even worse. The hole between his precise and anticipated wOBA on contact rose to a whopping 71 factors, and his batted ball distribution appeared fairly out of whack. Haniger has thrived on pulling his elevated contact, however whereas enjoying away from house final 12 months, his pull price fell to 36.6%. Proper-handed batters have a tougher time hitting at T-Cellular Park, although Haniger has confirmed he’s able to overcoming these park components previously. It actually looks like most of his struggles final 12 months had been the results of some fairly poor luck. His anticipated batting common (.244), anticipated slugging (.433), and anticipated wOBA (.317) all outpaced his precise outcomes by extensive margins; his 42 level distinction between anticipated wOBA and precise wOBA was the third worst within the majors amongst gamers with no less than 200 plate appearances final 12 months. The Mariners can’t depend on wherever close to a full season from Haniger, but when his batted ball luck improves and his contact high quality continues to stay, he’s a strong addition to their lineup.
They’re additionally banking on Raley’s 2023 breakout to stay. A late-bloomer, he made his main league debut with the Dodgers again in 2021 as a 26-year-old however solely acquired 144 plate appearances over the primary two years of his massive league profession. With a chance for extra common enjoying time because the robust facet of a platoon, Raley impressed with a 130 wRC+ final 12 months. In an interview with David Laurila, he attributed his success to a mixture of that enjoying time alternative and key changes he made to his swing throughout the earlier offseason.
Regardless of the success, there are some considerations about his means to keep up his manufacturing shifting ahead. Practically all of his plate appearances got here in opposition to right-handed pitching — he had simply 43 plate appearances in opposition to left-handed pitching in 2023 and has simply 74 in his main league profession. He can completely mash when deployed in a platoon, however he is perhaps uncovered if requested to fill a full-time position in the midst of Seattle’s lineup. After which there are the strikeouts. His strikeout price fell by almost two factors to a profession low final 12 months, nevertheless it was nonetheless nicely above league common at 31.5%. He chases pitches out of the zone a bunch, doesn’t make a lot contact, and whiffs a ton. His contact high quality greater than made up for that flaw, however he wants to maximise each single batted ball he places in play as a result of there merely aren’t that lots of them.
Including Haniger and Raley to the lineup definitely fills the opening left by the departure of Teoscar Hernández, however Seattle’s roster remains to be in a little bit of an ungainly spot. Of the six outfielders who might see time in an outfield nook — Haniger, Raley, Canzone, Marlowe, Trammell, and DeLoach — 5 are left-handed, with Haniger the one righty. That doesn’t current many pure platoon choices to guard Raley, and it implies that if Haniger will get damage once more, Seattle will certainly be utilizing Raley as a full-time outfielder. Trammell’s lack of choices additionally presents some roster flexibility points, although he hasn’t proven sufficient on the massive league degree for that to be a real hindrance. Each Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty might probably be used within the outfield, however their worth is tied to their positional flexibility, and the previous will possible be utilized in some type of infield platoon to spell Josh Rojas at second base.
The Mariners lineup is unquestionably higher than it was per week in the past, however there’s loads of danger at play. There may be potential for reward if Haniger is wholesome and Raley manages to repeat his success, however their refusal to spend on a giant free agent acquisition continues to hamper their means to considerably enhance their roster. They’re discovering inventive methods to get higher, nevertheless it’s been a convoluted course of to get them thus far.
The third participant the M’s added to their roster offers some a lot wanted depth to their beginning rotation. Each Logan Gilbert and George Kirby crossed the 190 innings threshold final 12 months and their workloads gained’t be restricted in any method this 12 months, however Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are nonetheless younger starters who haven’t dealt with a full main league workload but. Placing DeSclafani within the bullpen because the lengthy man and having him on standby as a spot starter provides Seattle insurance coverage if the membership’s younger starters want a breather or if harm strikes. Given his prolonged harm historical past and the best way he wore down in the direction of the top of final season, it’s a job that most likely fits him higher than a full-time position within the rotation.
Fortunately, DeSclafani has an arsenal that might play nicely out of the ‘pen. He has more and more relied on his slider over the previous couple of years, throwing the pitch 44.8% of the time final season. That’s good as a result of his breaking ball is clearly his finest pitch and was a massive purpose why his 2021 was so profitable. Deemphasizing his fastballs has helped him proceed to be efficient, as he’s misplaced a little bit of oomph on his exhausting stuff. And if he needed to tinker along with his fastballs, the Mariners have developed a well-earned fame as a company that may assist pitchers maximize their stuff.
It was a bit shocking to see the Rays surrender Raley for Caballero straight up, particularly since each gamers have 5 years of staff management remaining. However with Wander Franco at present on administrative go away whereas below investigation within the Dominican Republic for the alleged sexual abuse of a minor, Tampa Bay’s shortstop place is in flux. Junior Caminero appears higher suited to 3rd base and Taylor Partitions underwent hip surgical procedure on the finish of October. That left the roster fairly skinny up the center.
Caballero was by no means a extremely regarded prospect within the Mariners group. He came visiting from Arizona within the Mike Leake deal again in 2019 and struggled via two harm plagued seasons after COVID worn out the 2020 minor league season. He was pressed into service after Kolten Wong was benched final 12 months and ran along with his alternative. He performed implausible protection at each second and quick, and held his personal on the plate with a 96 wRC+. He drew loads of walks, crushed left-handed pitching, and was a grasp of manipulating the pitch clock to frustrate opposing pitchers. Relying on Partitions’ harm timeline, Caballero has a shot at starting the season because the Rays’ beginning shortstop.
With Raley shipped off to Seattle, the Rays shortly discovered a left-handed outfielder to take his spot on the roster in Palacios. He’s seen restricted motion the previous two seasons because of the Cardinals glut of outfielders, although he did produce a 120 wRC+ in simply 102 plate appearances final 12 months. A lot of that success was because of an enormous soar in energy output; he posted a .258 ISO, far greater than he had produced in any single season in his skilled profession.
Each Caballero and Palacios have a number of offensive traits which can be shared by one of many Rays’ largest current growth successes: Isaac Paredes.
The Rays Improvement Particular
| Participant | Greatest Velocity | Pull% | FB Pull% | Barrel% | Onerous Hit% | Candy Spot% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes (2021) | 96.4 | 44.4% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 25.4% | 31.7% |
| José Caballero | 95.0 | 45.6% | 34.9% | 3.6% | 23.7% | 33.1% |
| Richie Palacios | 97.0 | 40.5% | 44.0% | 7.1% | 33.3% | 29.8% |
When Paredes joined the group forward of the 2022 season, he was a well-regarded prospect who had good bat to ball abilities and will take a stroll, however he didn’t have the off-the-charts contact high quality that might have made him actually standout. The Rays had him begin pulling a ton of his elevated contact and the outcomes converse for themselves: a 128 wRC+ and 51 house runs over the past two seasons. The 2 newcomers each possess a mature strategy on the plate with good contact charges, however aside from Palacios’ breakout final 12 months, their energy has been missing.
The rationale Palacios loved newfound success in 2023 was as a result of he began pulling a ton of his elevated contact; 44% of his fly balls had been hit to the suitable facet and he produced a 1.286 wOBA on these batted balls, nicely outpacing his anticipated .636 wOBA. That’s the precise recipe Paredes used to interrupt out two years in the past. Caballero additionally pulls a ton of his elevated contact, although his precise outcomes weren’t almost as spectacular. With a robust strategy on the plate as a basis, each Caballero and Palacios might thrive in a growth surroundings suited to benefiting from their swings.
The Rays’ penchant for conjuring high-leverage relievers seemingly at will, you may see why they had been keen to commerce Kittredge. He’ll flip 34 in a number of months and is in his final 12 months of wage arbitration. After an excellent 2021 season, accidents derailed a lot of the previous two years. He returned from Tommy John surgical procedure final August and pitched decently nicely, although his strikeout price by no means returned to its lofty heights from his All-Star season. He’ll give the Cardinals a veteran reliever with high-leverage expertise to complement the choices in the back of their bullpen.