Final yr, the Cincinnati Reds surprisingly vaulted into rivalry because of an ascendant crop of younger place gamers. Led by Matt McLain, Reds rookie hitters accrued 7.6 WAR, tops within the majors. But, their postseason bid in the end fell brief; whereas the Reds ran a middle-of-the-pack offense with a 98 wRC+ (seventeenth within the bigs), their pitching flopped. Even park-adjusted ERA-, which removes claustrophobic Nice American Ball Park from the equation, pegged them because the eighth-worst employees within the majors with a 105 mark.
Cincinnati’s cache of younger hurlers was presupposed to function a complement to the group’s potential-filled lineup. However pitching is a fickle beast, and the Reds’ employees was dogged by accidents and inconsistency in 2023. Now, they’ve added Frankie Montas, the poster little one of accidents and inconsistency, to that group.
Perhaps that’s just a little harsh, however I did root for the Yankees final yr. Nonetheless, my colleague Chris Gilligan authored a preview of Montas’ free company again in November from a much less biased perspective. I’d encourage you to learn it in full, however right here’s the low-down: After including a splitter in 2019, Montas was good most of the time for the A’s earlier than his shoulder points started. Although the right-hander first hit the IL with irritation within the joint in July of 2022, the Yankees introduced him aboard on the commerce deadline anyway.
Finally, shoulder surgical procedure worn out most of his 2023, however he did handle to look in a single September contest for New York. In accordance with Statcast, his velocity was down over a tick just about throughout the board, however his skill to get into sport motion in any respect helped him land the biggest one-year assure of the winter up to now at $16 million. With a wholesome offseason and a full spring coaching, it’s affordable to count on that Montas will look extra like his outdated self come the primary common season video games of 2024, at which level he might make the one-year pact seem like a cut price.
Assuming his stamina returns, Montas will push fellow free-agent signee Nick Martinez additional down the depth chart, the place he’ll seemingly resume the swingman function he crammed for the Padres final yr. The Reds even have a trio of two-pitch starters in Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft; amongst them, the less-touted Ashcraft appears a likelier candidate for reduction work. That would go away Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson because the remaining rotation choices alongside Greene, Lodolo and Montas. On the similar time, Ashcraft’s robust end might conceivably grant him a spot over Williamson, whose full-season line was comparable:
Reds Rotation Choices (2023 Stats)
| Identify | G/GS | IP | Ok-BB% | HR/9 | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 26/26 | 145.2 | 9.5 | 1.42 | 4.76 | 5.06 |
| Brandon Williamson | 23/23 | 117.0 | 12.0 | 1.38 | 4.46 | 4.63 |
| Hunter Greene | 22/22 | 112.0 | 20.9 | 1.53 | 4.82 | 4.25 |
| Andrew Abbott | 21/21 | 109.1 | 16.6 | 1.32 | 3.87 | 4.20 |
| Nick Martinez* | 63/9 | 110.1 | 14.3 | 0.98 | 3.43 | 3.92 |
| Nick Lodolo | 7/7 | 34.1 | 22.3 | 2.62 | 6.29 | 5.79 |
| Frankie Montas** | 1/0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.01 |
*Pitched for the Padres, **Pitched for the Yankees
At this level, this can be a extremely speculative train; loads might occur to shuffle the order of the depth chart between now and the beginning of the common season. But as issues stand, the Reds’ prime seven beginning candidates are all succesful, with a pair of at the least 45 FV prospects with main league expertise additionally on the 40-man in Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips. However most of those seemingly strong choices are holdovers from final season; what, then, went improper?
Oh yeah, that entire accidents and inconsistency factor. A pair of left tibia stress fractures restricted Lodolo to simply seven begins and a 6.29 ERA. Greene failed to succeed in 25 main league begins for the second straight season and allowed greater than 1.5 homers per 9 once more. Although they have been largely wholesome, Abbott pitched to an ERA over six throughout his final 10 begins and Williamson fared equally over his final 5. Ashcraft allowed at the least seven runs in 4 out of six begins from early Could to June, and even his robust end was minimize brief by toe surgical procedure.
However holding onto all 5 of those pitchers has made it straightforward for the Reds to wager that at the least three of them will make good on their upside this yr, and Montas and Martinez can take the place of the 2 who don’t. It’s an affordable wager; every of the 5 children has the truth is flashed appreciable upside. Greene struck out 30% of hitters for the second season in a row and Lodolo wasn’t far behind. After punching out 36 of the 56 Double-A hitters he confronted final yr, Abbott didn’t permit a single run over his first three massive league outings, all begins. Williamson’s chilly stretch, in the meantime, was precipitated by a bout of COVID, and Ashcraft completed robust because of discernible tweaks — a cutter with extra minimize and a tighter slider.
And whereas president of baseball operations Nick Krall has indicated he doesn’t see the group making any main strikes heading into spring coaching, the Reds might nonetheless add to their employees. They already had a glut of excellent hitters earlier than they plucked Jeimer Candelario off the board, however that transfer served to additional winnow the already-thin class of free agent place gamers, leaving potential commerce companions with little recourse however to come back knocking. Including yet another strong starter would take much more stress off of the kids, and off of Montas.
When you may have a surplus of rotation choices, it is sensible to go together with upside over reliability. I don’t suppose the Reds are fairly at that time, regardless that they selected upside in Montas. However even when this transfer caps off their offseason, they’ve at the least fortified their roster sufficient to show that final season’s shock contender was no fluke.