There’s a Gap in J.T. Realmuto’s Instrument Field

I don’t assume J.T. Realmuto ever received sufficient credit score for his exceptional season in 2022. It was simply the best efficiency of his profession. With 22 house runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 128 wRC+, along with his typical Gold Glove protection and trademark sturdiness, he produced a personal-best 6.5 WAR, claimed All-MLB First Group honors for the second time and completed seventh in a stacked NL MVP race.

What made his 2022 season so spectacular have been the demographics of all of it. We’re not speaking a couple of middle fielder in his 20s; Realmuto’s 6.5 WAR was the very best for a daily catcher age 31 or older since Javy Lopez in 2003. As a matter of truth, solely 4 catchers have ever put up extra WAR in a single season after their thirty first birthday: Lopez, Gary Carter, Roy Campanella, and Josh Gibson.

That very same 12 months, Realmuto additionally grew to become the primary backstop to qualify for the batting title in seven consecutive seasons since Jason Kendall in 2009. Solely seven different catchers have completed that specific feat within the divisional period (1969-present): Jorge Posada, Mike Piazza, Carter, Lance Parrish, Ted Simmons, Johnny Bench, and Thurman Munson.

Realmuto’s 2022 marketing campaign wasn’t simply the very best of his profession; it was one of the crucial extraordinary seasons by an older catcher in current reminiscence. I don’t assume he ever received sufficient credit score for it — and consequently, I don’t assume sufficient individuals understand simply how disappointing his follow-up efficiency turned out to be.

On the floor, Realmuto was stable if unspectacular in 2023. He knocked 20 house runs, swiped 16 bases, and led all catchers in video games performed behind the dish, ending as a finalist for the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards. However his 1.5 WAR was his lowest complete since 2015; he completed twenty first on the catcher leaderboard, tucked in between backups Victor Caratini and Freddy Fermin.

So what went improper? The quick reply is just about every thing. His wRC+ declined by 26 factors, the Thirteenth-largest drop-off amongst certified batters, although at the very least his 102 wRC+ was nonetheless considerably above common for a catcher. Furthermore, he continued hitting for average energy (.200 ISO, .208 xISO), and though his stroll fee dropped and his strikeout rose, his underlying plate self-discipline numbers have been steady. In the meantime, the opposite elements of his recreation suffered much more than his bat. No participant noticed a bigger year-over-year drop-off in baserunning worth (min. 100 PA) or fielding worth (min. 400 innings). I really feel like that truth bears repeating: By not one, however two central parts of the sport, Realmuto misplaced extra floor than another participant in baseball. Have a look:

Working and fielding metrics usually don’t stabilize as shortly as hitting stats, in order that they’re susceptible to wider swings from 12 months to 12 months. Nonetheless, for a participant as persistently glorious as Realmuto, a swing this large warrants a better look.

Since his rookie season in 2015, Realmuto’s baserunning worth had by no means dipped beneath zero. From 2018 to ’22, he put up a mean of 6.67 BsR per 162 video games, and his complete in that point ranked third in baseball, trailing solely José Ramírez and Trea Turner. Then impulsively in 2023, he became a legal responsibility on the basepaths. Have been this another 32-year-old catcher, it could be straightforward to clarify his destructive numbers as an impact of age-related decline. However Realmuto hasn’t misplaced a step:

As his 5 triples and 16 stolen bases — each tops amongst catchers — attest, Realmuto was no slowpoke in 2023. Overaggressiveness wasn’t a problem both: His 76% stolen base success fee was completely respectable. The issue appears to have been the polar reverse: an overabundance of warning. In line with Baseball Reference, he recorded a career-worst extra-bases taken share (XBT%) of simply 30% in 2023; league common was 42%, and he averaged 57% throughout his first 4 seasons in Philadelphia. Equally, Baseball Savant tells us he tried to advance in solely 36% of alternatives, his lowest fee since 2016. His development try fee above common, additionally per Savant, was the bottom of his profession. And whereas stolen base makes an attempt across the league have been up by practically 33%, he tried one fewer steal than he did the 12 months earlier than.

Realmuto and his legs have but to reckon with Father Time, however his age may very well be affecting his numbers all the identical. As he enters his mid-30s, maybe he’s exercising extra warning to protect his legs, forestall harm, and lengthen his catching profession. If it really works, it’s greater than an inexpensive trade-off. He is likely one of the finest working catchers the sport has ever seen, however that doesn’t imply a lot if he isn’t really, you realize, catching.

About that catching, although. Realmuto ranks fifth amongst lively catchers in profession defensive worth (Def); since his breakout 2018 season, he ranks third. However in only one season, he went from a deserving Gold Glove winner to an underserving Gold Glove finalist, the type who makes you query whether or not Gold Gloves imply something in any respect. These aren’t the numbers of an growing older veteran struggling to carry his personal behind the plate, although:

As an alternative, his defensive woes have been concentrated in a single explicit space: pitch framing. Realmuto was value -12.2 framing runs this previous season, the third-worst mark in baseball. His dreadful framing efficiency dragged down his WAR greater than anything. However it wasn’t so way back that framing was simply one other one in every of his many strengths. From 2019 to ’21, he racked up 18.8 framing runs, the fourth-most in baseball. Then in 2022, his framing numbers dropped considerably, from 8.6 FRM the 12 months previous to 1.1. And this previous season, his FRM dropped once more, by practically as twice as a lot. That’s not only a hiccup; it’s a sample, and a regarding one at that.

Like another talent, framing has an growing older curve. Nonetheless, I’m struggling to chalk this as much as the pure growing older course of. Realmuto strikes and throws like an elite athlete. His dash velocity, arm power, pop time, most exit velocity, and finest velocity have but to indicate any signal of decline. His athleticism is unquestionable. And his sturdiness is a device in and of itself. He set a brand new profession excessive with 1,142 defensive innings in 2023, essentially the most by a catcher since Martín Maldonado in 2017. And whereas he had a down 12 months total, he didn’t present any indicators of damage and tear because the season went on. In truth, his numbers have been virtually equivalent within the first and second halves. On high of that, he was glorious within the playoffs, beginning all 13 of the Phillies’ video games and crushing seven extra-base hits in 52 PA. That simply doesn’t sound like a catcher on the verge of breaking down.

Sadly, I don’t have an alternate reply for why Realmuto’s framing fell off a cliff. The most probably rationalization is a little bit of growing older, a little bit of unhealthy luck, a little bit of random variance, and maybe some de-emphasis on framing within the Phillies group. They’d a devoted receiving coach when Realmuto first arrived in 2019; that coach, Craig Driver, labored intently with Realmuto on his framing abilities. Driver left the group after the 2019 season, and his fellow catching coach, Bob Stumpo, took a promotion to affix the participant improvement employees forward of the 2022 marketing campaign. It’s doable Realmuto is struggling with out the assist system he as soon as had. For what it’s value, former Phillies catchers Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp additionally improved their framing below Driver, and present backup catcher Garrett Stubbs has been a horrible framer the previous two years.

When Realmuto signed with the Phillies, he sparked loads of dialog concerning the growing older curve for catchers. His detractors claimed he wouldn’t keep his star degree of efficiency lengthy sufficient to justify his contract; many thought he’d be enjoying first base or the outfield earlier than the deal was up.

After three years, it’s clear the doubters have been improper. Realmuto’s deal was a discount for Philadelphia, and he seems to be as hardy and wholesome because the day he first donned crimson pinstripes. That being mentioned, because the veteran catcher comes off the worst season of his profession, it’s doable the cynics received one thing proper. If he can’t enhance his baserunning and framing numbers, the again finish of his deal may very well be marred by a steep decline in any case.