Hiya, and welcome to a different version of Semi-Rebuilding Crew Indicators Stable Gamers. Final time, we noticed the Kansas Metropolis Royals signal Michael Wacha and Hunter Renfroe. This time, we’re headed 800 miles east, to Pittsburgh, as a result of the Pirates are our subsequent function. Up to now week, they’ve added Martín Pérez and workforce legend Andrew McCutchen on one-year offers.
The McCutchen signing is the extra fascinating of the 2 to me – and in addition one which felt inevitable for the reason that conclusion of final season. McCutchen loved a resurgent 2023 in Pittsburgh, his first 12 months again after a five-year, four-team odyssey that he launched into after leaving earlier than the 2018 season. He walked extra, struck out much less, stole extra bases, made strong contact extra often; if you happen to can dream it, he did it higher final 12 months than he had in his earlier peregrinations.
The results of that enchancment was a 115 wRC+ and a .256/.378/.397 slash line, heavy on on-base and light-weight on homers (12, the bottom he’s posted in a wholesome season). Early within the season, it regarded like that efficiency may be a key a part of a Pirates playoff berth. However the workforce pale within the second half, and McCutchen’s season ended on September 4 when he partially tore his Achilles tendon legging out a double.
That’s not how anybody needed it to finish, and so it didn’t finish. McCutchen is sitting on 299 residence runs, and clearly nonetheless has one thing left within the tank. The truth is, he was the perfect hitter on the workforce on a price foundation final 12 months, and he comfortably tasks as adequate to start out for them this 12 months once more. He’s additionally a metropolis legend and reminder of the final Pirates playoff workforce, which absolutely doesn’t damage the workforce’s estimation of him.
The plain advantages of this signing don’t even cease there; the Pirates farm system has produced various sturdy main leaguers and appears poised to provide many extra, however McCutchen doesn’t block any of them. He performed DH virtually solely final 12 months, sometimes moonlighting in proper subject. Pittsburgh’s system is heavy on up-the-middle varieties; along with signing McCutchen, they went out and signed Rowdy Tellez to play first base.
That’s the form of transfer you solely make if DH and first base are large open; McCutchen may not have a variety of positional flexibility, however his function completely fits Pittsburgh’s wants. The one factor that would have stopped a McCutchen/Pittsburgh reunion was that Achilles damage, however happily it wasn’t an entire tear, which could have required extra in depth rehabilitation.
If the Pirates wish to proceed their enchancment from final season and contend for a playoff spot in 2024, they’ll have to hit higher; their team-wide 90 wRC+ final 12 months merely didn’t minimize it. McCutchen ought to assist with that objective, and at $5 million, the value is actually proper. That is the uncommon deal that checks each field I can suppose up. You may’t all the time signal a franchise legend to fill an precise want on a workforce that hopes to be aggressive – however if you happen to can, it’s best to.
That’s the straightforward a part of the Pirates transaction evaluation. Peréz requires a bit extra of an investigation. He’s a quintessential journeyman, with a profession 100 ERA- and 102 FIP-. In different phrases, he’s been virtually precisely league common throughout 1,440 profession innings. In 2023, his already low-whiff recreation turned additional in that path; his strikeout and swinging strike charges have been close to his profession lows, and his efficiency suffered in consequence. He ended up as a part-time starter for Texas and didn’t have a playoff rotation spot.
At this level in his profession, I feel that’s an applicable approximation of what Pérez can do for you: He’s undoubtedly not adequate to be a playoff starter, however he’s nonetheless completely able to making 20 begins on the again finish of a playoff contender’s rotation. Will you be ecstatic in regards to the high quality of these innings? I imply, you would possibly! In 2022, he was elegant, to the tune of a 2.89 ERA and peripherals to match, however that was the primary 12 months since 2015 the place he’d posted an ERA or FIP under 4.00. He reverted to his profession type final 12 months, and we venture his efficiency to say no barely extra with age in 2024.
So sure, we’re not speaking about Corbin Burnes or Gerrit Cole right here. My counterpoint? Who cares! The Pirates are desperately skinny within the beginning rotation, notably after Johan Oviedo tore his UCL. Reinforcements may not be far off; Paul Skenes will doubtless debut this 12 months, and 6 of the workforce’s high 10 prospects are starters. However that’s all sooner or later; you must have a full rotation all 12 months lengthy, and loads of these prospects will both get damage or fail to understand their potential. Beginning the season with a reliable main league rotation in place is paramount, and Pérez is a giant a part of that.
The most important criticism of this deal I can muster is that I want the Pirates had executed a bit extra. Pérez slots into the center of their rotation, in order that’s a giant enchancment – however they may have aimed only a large increased with out paying an enormous premium. Seth Lugo signed for $15 million a 12 months. Wacha signed for $16 million a 12 months. Each of these guys would fill the identical “we’d like a Skenes stopgap” function as Pérez, however their ceilings appear increased to me at this level of their respective careers.
Actually, although, they need to do each. Signing Pérez hasn’t turned their rotation right into a juggernaut; it hasn’t even made them common. We venture their starters for the fifth-lowest WAR within the majors subsequent 12 months, and that’s with a smattering of innings from their phenoms. Bumping Bailey Falter from fifth starter to swingman would do loads to enhance that projection, and the identical goes for Marco Gonzales. Perhaps the Pirates have one other transfer coming. There are, in spite of everything, loads of free agent starters nonetheless obtainable.
I feel that’s unlikely, although. Pittsburgh’s wage is already roughly in step with final 12 months’s iteration, which doesn’t go away them a ton of funds room so as to add somebody in that Wacha/Lugo tier. Greater than doubtless, they’ll add a number of speculative choices, maybe as non-roster invitees to spring coaching, to compete for a rotation spot. However one other advantage of signing Pérez is that he leaves your choices open. He’ll take up a spot for so long as he’s one of many workforce’s finest 5 choices – given their depth chart, I feel that may in all probability be all 12 months. But when he falls out of that high 5? No downside! He’s on a one-year deal, and he’s already accustomed to understanding of the bullpen as a protracted man/lefty specialist when wanted.
I don’t wish to overstate both of those signings. They’re minor within the grand scheme of issues, little question. However I’ll say this: I feel that each of them make a ton of sense. In case you’re a Pirates fan, it’s unrealistic to count on your workforce to start out spending meaningfully extra – whether or not it’s the correct factor to do or not, it’s simply not going to occur. As a substitute, they’re going to function on a decent funds and prioritize inside choices when doable, solely supplementing them with free brokers the place mandatory. With that in thoughts, these signings are nice. They’re reasonably priced, they clearly fill a necessity, they usually give the workforce not less than a puncher’s probability in a weak division. They even deliver again a franchise legend at present sitting on 299 residence runs. There’s loads to love right here.