Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Indicators Up for Three Extra Years in Arizona

Arizona took one of many few high quality outfielders obtainable in free company off the market over the weekend, re-signing outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to a three-year contract value a assured $42 million. Gurriel will get an opt-out after the second 12 months of the contract, and the Snakes get a $14 million choice for a fourth season. Whereas he didn’t have a star-level season for Arizona in 2023, he was a gradual contributor in left area and designated hitter, placing up a .261/.309/.463 triple-slash en path to 2.1 WAR.

Gurriel wasn’t the first motive that Arizona stunned lots of people in 2023, however he stuffed a gap within the Diamondbacks’ lineup. In 2022, Arizona designated hitters mixed to hit .215/.320/.382. And Jake McCarthy’s struggles — he had a .481 OPS in April — ensured there was loads of time for Gurriel within the area. Whereas no person will ever confuse Gurriel with Kevin Kiermaier with the glove, he had the most effective defensive season of his profession by OAA. In the event you choose DRS or UZR, he was top-of-the-line defensive left fielders in baseball. I’m not going to go almost that far, however the mixture of respectable work with each leather-based and wooden left Gurriel a league-average starter total.

In 2024, Gurriel will seemingly play the same function, splitting time at left area and DH. The estimates of Ben Clemens (3/45) and our crowdsource (3/36) did properly right here. Even in a free-agent market with few impression hitters, an peculiar participant hitting 30 years outdated with out a ton of defensive worth was by no means prone to set the market on fireplace.

Let’s crank out the ZiPS projection for Gurriel and see what it has to say about his new deal:

Even whereas projecting fewer residence runs for Gurriel and anticipating the traditional begin of his decline years, ZiPS sees his new deal as eminently affordable given free-agent requirements, projecting a three-year, $41.1 million contract. The pc could steal away a few of his energy, but it surely offers that efficiency again to him in batting common. Whereas it’s refined, he made incremental enhancements in plate self-discipline. It’s not apparent from the bottom-line strikeout and stroll totals, however he had his greatest 12 months involved proportion, has shaved off almost a 3rd of his swinging-strike price in two years, and began off on fewer 0–1 counts than he ever had earlier than. He’ll by no means be Joey Votto, however making fewer outs will hold his bat related longer, even whereas his energy inevitably declines.

Some form of nook outfield transfer was inevitable for Arizona. Corbin Carroll is a constructing block expertise, and Alek Thomas is an sufficient choice in heart area, however the depth drops off pretty shortly in offensive expertise. ZiPS is comparatively optimistic about McCarthy (.264/.327/.403), however ought to a staff that was a pair wins away from successful the World Sequence rely on him as a Plan A fairly than a fourth outfielder/fallback starter? The non-tendered Kyle Lewis was even riskier than McCarthy (although a probably nice signing for a rebuilding staff), and a lot of the different outfield choices like Dominic Fletcher and Jorge Barrosa are most notable for his or her capability to play heart, not torment pitchers.

If we settle for that Arizona wanted to signal a nook outfielder, there was no clearly superior choice obtainable. There are solely two outfielders in free company who I might have clearly most well-liked, ignoring salaries: Cody Bellinger and Jung Hoo Lee. The latter would have been a enjoyable choice, however the Giants already locked him as much as a long-term deal. And whereas I feel Bellinger is the higher participant, I’d have actual points getting in a bidding struggle within the $150 million (or extra!) vary given his multi-year crater and a few actual crimson flags in his offensive profile. With Thomas and Carroll and extra defensive depth in heart area, Arizona is without doubt one of the groups least in a position to get essentially the most out of Bellinger’s glove, making an enormous deal for him even much less interesting.

I’m extra assured about Gurriel’s defensive skills than I’m in Jorge Soler’s, and in a theoretical alternative between Gurriel and, say, Teoscar Hernández, I see nothing flawed with going with the participant that you recognize, who simply hit in the midst of the order for you within the World Sequence!

If something surprises me about this signing, it’s the groups that didn’t signal him, or no less than drive up the value. I’ll by no means be shocked that the Marlins didn’t spend cash on a free agent, however the Mariners would seemingly be taking part in a variety of Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe if the season began right this moment, and a 4/60 supply would hardly have crippled their payroll. Nor would such a deal have affected Toronto’s capability to go after different high free brokers. Each the Padres and Mets might have used somebody like Gurriel as properly. Possibly he was comfy in Arizona, however you possibly can no less than run up the bidding a bit!

Gurriel was the proper participant on the proper time for the Diamondbacks in April 2023, and he appears to be like like he nonetheless is in December 2023. Given a good contract that provides choices to each staff and participant, there isn’t even something for imply ol’ Szymborski to snark about.