Want Pitching Assist? The Dodgers Dial 8-7-7-GLAS-NOW

Over the weekend, the Dodgers hit the motherlode, signing Shohei Ohtani to a landmark 10-year contract. Seems, although, MLB didn’t award them the 2024 World Collection only for doing that. There’s nonetheless baseball to be performed, and whereas the Dodgers definitely aren’t quick on great hitters, they do want some critical assistance on the pitching facet. Enter the Rays:

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays are in settlement on a commerce to ship RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot to the Dodgers for RHP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny Deluca — contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with L.A., which is predicted, sources inform ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 15, 2023

I’m undecided that I’m making a robust sufficient assertion. The Dodgers need assistance on the pitching facet, and so they want it badly. Earlier than this commerce, their depth chart appeared like this:

That’s dire. It’s a mix of harm danger, mild workloads, unproven arms, and pitchers who examine a number of of these packing containers without delay. Ohtani clearly received’t pitch subsequent 12 months. Walker Buehler hasn’t pitched since June 2022, appeared unhealthy in that 2022 season, and is their nominal ace. Bobby Miller is the one different man the crew appears to belief, and so they’ll want loads of quantity from him, however he made 26 begins final 12 months to get to his 138.2 innings, so it’s not like there’s a ton extra within the tank. If the Dodgers’ lineup is Boardwalk and Park Place, their rotation seems to be extra like Mediterranean and Baltic Avenues.

Tyler Glasnow simply could be the very best pitcher obtainable in commerce this offseason, relying on whether or not the Brewers resolve to maneuver Corbin Burnes. Like a lot of the Dodger rotation, he’s obtainable much less often than you’d like. When he does take the mound, although, he’s been completely lights out. In his 5 full seasons with the Rays (he joined them on the deadline in 2018), he’s solely made 60 begins – however he’s compiled a 3.03 ERA and a couple of.89 FIP in these begins. He does every thing nicely, racking up enormous strikeout charges, limiting walks, and holding the ball within the ballpark. On a per-inning foundation, he’s among the finest pitchers within the majors.

I don’t see a lot likelihood of the Dodgers getting extra out of Glasnow, however why would they should? He slots in alongside Buehler to type a fearsome prime duo. Or if Buehler is a diminished model of himself subsequent 12 months, Glasnow suits in forward of Miller as a succesful one-two punch. Realistically, I’m speaking in regards to the playoff rotation moderately than the regular-season unit. With their lineup and depth, they might most likely win 95 video games with a Triple-A caliber rotation. However they’re rightly targeted on the postseason, the place a number of aces on the prime of your rotation can carry outsized import.

To that finish, they’ll absolutely be targeted on ensuring he’s obtainable in October, even when it means additional relaxation within the common season. A day right here and a day there doesn’t imply Glasnow can’t get damage, however holding his complete innings down makes good sense to me. Glasnow getting 140 innings as a substitute of 165 virtually definitely received’t price the Dodgers the division – however an harm would possibly stack the deck in opposition to them come October.

Would an innings-eating monster with the identical expertise stage match the crew higher? I imply, positive, however this hypothetical participant would most likely swimsuit each crew higher. If the Dodgers had to decide on between Glasnow’s stage of excellence over a restricted variety of begins and a worse pitcher who would give them 200 innings assured, I’d choose Glasnow. He’s only a higher match for what they want out of their pitchers – the potential to begin, and reach, huge video games within the postseason.

Availability danger is one among two downsides going through a crew that employs Glasnow. The opposite is that he’s set to achieve free company after the 2024 season (the second 12 months of a two-year extension he signed in August 2022 as he was getting back from Tommy John), at which level he’ll absolutely decline a qualifying supply. That will imply that the Dodgers would solely get one chunk on the playoff apple with Glasnow – so that they got here up with an answer. Buying and selling for a participant contingent on a contract extension isn’t a standard transfer, however it makes good sense right here. LA has lots of payroll flexibility, with solely Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman on the books past 2025. They’ve an enormous want for pitching. They’ll clearly look to signal a stud pitcher or two in free company – why not simply lengthen Glasnow now and get a head begin on every thing?

After all, it takes two to tango. Per Jeff Passan, an extension is predicted, hopefully by Friday, however that signifies that an extension hasn’t occurred but. Whereas we wait, right here’s what ZiPS would counsel. With Glasnow’s harm historical past factored in, ZiPS would supply him six years and $98 million, a deal I don’t suppose he’d be more likely to signal:

However should you inform ZiPS that Glasnow might be wholesome for all of 2024, which appears to me just like the headspace the Dodgers must inhabit in the event that they wish to get one thing finished, it could supply six years and $142 million as a substitute:

Once more, the phrases of the extension aren’t recognized, and the complete commerce is contingent on Glasnow and the Dodgers agreeing to a deal. However should you’re in search of the tough, computer-predicted contours of what a contract would possibly appear like, and what Glasnow’s future would possibly appear like in Chavez Ravine, there you might have it.

We’ll get to Manuel Margot, the remainder of the Dodgers’ return on this commerce, on the finish, however I feel that Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca are each fairly attention-grabbing from Tampa Bay’s perspective. The Rays clearly determined they couldn’t afford to carry onto Glasnow, even when they made public gesticulations to counsel they might in an try to retain at the very least an iota of leverage in commerce talks. That’s simply not how they function, although. Core gamers not often stay on the crew by way of free company. They both signal an early-career extension or go away in commerce, in alternate for extra gamers who would possibly at some point hold the perpetual movement machine churning.

This prices them a bit of bit in each season – they don’t get to make use of the Tyler Glasnows of the world as a lot as they may favor to, as a result of they should hold an eye fixed to the long run. There’s no “going all-in” in Tampa Bay, no signing an enormous free agent to a short-term deal as a result of the crew wants that little bit additional. In alternate, although, they get guys like Pepiot and Deluca, and the reality is that over a 162 recreation season the sort of depth they purchase does a very good job of profitable video games at an identical clip to the Dodgers.

Pepiot will not be nearly as good of a pitcher as Glasnow proper now, and I don’t suppose I’m breaking anybody’s brains by saying that. He’s spent the final two years bouncing between the rotation, the bullpen, and the injured checklist for the Dodgers, placing up good run prevention numbers however detached peripherals in a restricted pattern. If he could be a mid-rotation starter for the following 5 years – he’s as a result of attain free company after the 2028 season – the Rays might be fairly pleased with their return for Glasnow even disregarding Deluca. So the query is: Is Pepiot a starter?

Earlier than this 12 months, I’d have mentioned no. One subject dogged him all through the minors: He doesn’t have a dependable third pitch. His fastball is a mean providing, 93-95 mph with strong vertical motion. His changeup is a magnificence, fading and dipping exhausting after wanting similar to a heater out of his hand. However till 2023, that was kind of it. That’s a tricky technique to make a residing as a starter; by the third time a same-handed batter sees you attempt to strike him out with a changeup, you might need a tough go of issues.

Pepiot’s different largest subject could be correlated: He doesn’t have nice command. His stroll charge have at all times been on the hold-your-breath facet of acceptable, even within the minors, the place batters are way more liable to chase middling pitches. A 3rd pitch principally eluded him, and his command generally left him down in counts, at which level you don’t wish to be throwing solely a changeup and a 94 mph fastball. If his pitch combine as of 2022 was going to be his pitch combine perpetually, I’d name him a reliever and be finished with it.

In 2023, although, Pepiot debuted a brand new pitch. Possibly that’s not technically new – Pitch Information calls it a cutter and thinks he threw extra in 2022 than 2023, whereas Statcast calls it a slider however thinks the identical about its frequency. What modified isn’t the title of the pitch, however the form. He added 2.5 mph of velocity and altered the form considerably, turning it from a pitch that appeared caught awkwardly between sweeper and gyro slider into extra of a tough cutter, with 3.6 inches of vertical motion to associate with 3.4 inches of glove-side break.

Our pitching fashions are divided on whether or not this can be a good breaking ball or not. Stuff+ loves it, contemplating it Pepiot’s greatest pitch (fashions have a hell of a time with changeups, so don’t learn an excessive amount of into that). PitchingBot thinks it’s abysmal, his worst pitch by a mile. The outcomes have been unusual – it by no means missed bats, however it induced pop-ups at a daft charge and suppressed BABIP considerably. If that’s actual – it appeared actual in a small pattern, however it’s a loud statistic to make certain – it provides Pepiot an answer to his earlier issues. Behind within the rely? Throw the cutter and dare opposing hitters to swing. It’s not like they do a lot with it anyway, on common.

As well as, Pepiot’s command appeared a lot sharper in 2023. You may see that clearly from his stroll charge – a career-low 3.1% – however it’s additionally evident simply from watching him pitch. He attacked the zone extra, drew extra chases when he was forward within the rely, and usually stored himself away from conditions the place he was choosing between a crushable fastball and a secondary pitch which may result in a stroll.

The Dodgers and Rays are each wonderful at coaxing probably the most out of their pitchers, so I don’t suppose that Pepiot is robotically going to enhance as a result of he’s traded to Tampa Bay or something, however I do like his probabilities of utilizing his newfound pitch combine to supply back-of-rotation worth or higher. That may swimsuit the Rays simply effective, as a result of they have been pressured into some wild contortions to make their rotation work final 12 months – utilizing Zack Littell as a starter and buying and selling for Aaron Civale, to call two examples. They’re already relying on Shane Baz subsequent 12 months, and their farm system is bat-heavy however mild on arms. Value-controlled beginning makes the crew tick, and this seems like an inexpensive technique to purchase extra, even when it makes their rotation worse in 2024.

Deluca isn’t the identical participant as Pepiot by any means, however he’s one other Rays specialty, an outfielder who doesn’t appear like an all-world prospect however who will nonetheless present strong manufacturing for years. He tore by way of the minors in 2022, did it once more in 2023, then made a serious league cameo on the finish of the season, and he is smart as a platoon outfield possibility for them immediately.

If you realize one tidbit about Deluca, it’s most likely that he transformed away from swap hitting after being drafted. If you realize two issues, the second might be that he ran monitor and may nonetheless completely fly. Statcast clocked his dash pace at 29.7 ft/sec on common, an outrageous clip, and he’s performed all throughout the outfield whereas logging the majority of his time in heart.

Offensively, his greatest talent is bat management. Within the minors, he displayed roughly common pitch recognition, however he ran enviable strikeout charges because of his capability to sq. up powerful pitches. You would possibly take a look at his gaudy energy statistics – an mixture .277 ISO throughout 2022 and 2023 is nothing to sneeze at – and suppose he’s an enormous bopper. That’s not the case, although; he has roughly common uncooked energy, and even in video games, he wasn’t posting enormous exit velocities.

How’d he get to all that energy, then? His pace definitely helps; he had 50 doubles and triples as in comparison with 42 homers over that stretch. Extra importantly, his wonderful really feel for contact helped him put a ton of pitches within the air, significantly when he hit the ball exhausting, which meant he was capable of do lots of harm with out overwhelming pressure. When you consider a retailer model model of Betts, you received’t be too far off within the energy division, although severely, emphasis on “retailer model.”

Add all of that up, and also you get a restricted however nonetheless helpful participant. I don’t suppose he’s going to be an MVP candidate anytime quickly, however a plus outfield defender with a number of offensive instruments might be a roughly common participant total. If the Rays will help him harness that bat management to flip some fly balls over the left area fence, he would possibly repeat a few of his shocking minor league residence run totals. And eventually, they’ve a transparent want for a righty outfielder who can platoon with Josh Lowe; Margot, who beforehand crammed that function, is on his technique to the Dodgers.

As greatest as I can inform, that is only a technique to make the rosters and cash work whereas the Rays exchange him with an identical however youthful participant. Margot has so much in frequent with Deluca; he’s a right-handed hitter who can play any outfield place, however whose bat is hardly unstoppable. He has a profession 90 wRC+, and that’s regardless of the Rays utilizing him as a platoon bat as a lot as potential and attempting to optimize his matchups. He doesn’t strike out a lot, doesn’t stroll a lot, and doesn’t hit for a lot energy; it’s a superbly effective profile, however I don’t suppose there’s lots of daylight between him and Deluca when it comes to anticipated 2024 efficiency.

The massive upside to dealing Margot, from Tampa Bay’s perspective, is that he’s due $12 million this 12 months ($10 million plus a $2 million buyout on a mutual possibility) earlier than hitting free company. Deluca received’t hit free company for one more six years, so even when he’s not fairly nearly as good as Margot, the financial savings will permit them to seize assist elsewhere. The Rays despatched the Dodgers $4 million as a part of the deal, however I’m undecided whether or not that’s offsetting Margot or Glasnow, and it doesn’t actually matter. The purpose is that it appears clear to me that Tampa Bay wished Deluca within the deal, which made Margot superfluous, so that they despatched him to the Dodgers within the discount.

I most likely say that offers are win-win an excessive amount of. So I’ll hedge barely this time, and say that I like this commerce extra for the Rays than I do for the Dodgers, however with caveats. First, from the Rays’ perspective, residing in a approach the place you at all times deal your stars in the event that they received’t signal a long-term extension won’t be enjoyable, however it’s hardly a brand new phenomenon. That is simply how they function; Glasnow is a part of the Delmon Younger commerce tree, which fits again to 2007. The Rays simply hold flipping, hold pushing worth ahead, and I feel that each Pepiot and Deluca are going to be helpful components of their crew for years to come back. Their complete mannequin works as a result of they’re capable of make offers like these.

To be clear, the Dodgers have made themselves higher in 2024 by making this commerce. Additionally they mission to spend sufficient cash in free company and herald sufficient outdoors pitching that Pepiot was unlikely to be an important a part of their rotation. Glasnow is so much higher than that when wholesome, and even should you prorate his innings down, the playoff edge is de facto necessary when you might have targets just like the Dodgers. Likewise, Deluca most likely wasn’t going to have an on a regular basis function on a crew that retains churning by way of stars and creating good hitters.

However whereas these guys have been surplus to the Dodgers, they’re each invaluable gamers, the type that each crew in baseball may use. I feel they might have signed a terrific pitcher in free company, then traded Pepiot and Deluca for a significant return. It’s not like they’re getting an enormous discount on Glasnow’s 2024 season; he’s due $25 million. It’s not a lot that the Dodgers traded these guys; it’s that they traded them for a pitcher whose outcomes look so much like Blake Snell’s, and would possibly comply with that commerce up by giving him precisely Blake Snell’s contract. I’d have most popular to dip into free company and hold my prospect powder dry for future acquisitions.

Getting Margot again within the deal is the true clincher; it could have made lots of sense to play Deluca in that function, as a result of they’re strikingly related gamers. If the Dodgers need Margot, they most likely additionally would’ve been joyful working Deluca out as a short-side platoon outfielder who can deal with heart. Now they’re paying extra whereas getting him for much less time.

Possibly I’m lacking one thing right here. Two 45 prospects – and possibly that’s form to Deluca, Eric’s newest report has a 40 on him – for Tyler Glasnow appears like an enormous win. However for a man who would have hit free company after this season if not for the extension, and for 2 guys who match the Rays’ mould so completely? I’m shocked the Dodgers couldn’t pry a bit extra worth free from Tampa Bay within the alternate.

The probably reply to this puzzle is that the Dodgers wish to do each. Positive, if it’s Glasnow or Snell, I’d most likely attempt to hoard my prospects and purchase with cash, however what about Glasnow and Snell? What about Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or Shota Imanaga, or whoever your coronary heart wishes? If that is the final of their strikes, I don’t like it. But when they’re getting in entrance of a roster crunch by buying and selling their surplus to a crew that feasts on roster crunches, with a plan to double up on pitching within the coming month, I prefer it much more. Both approach, one factor’s for positive: this was a really Rays commerce, and a really Dodgers commerce, too.