Pirates Add Veteran Throwback Gonzales To Bolster Younger Workers

The Pirates have had a tough go of it. After notching three straight Wild Card berths from 2013 to ’15, they noticed their manufacturing tail off and haven’t made the postseason since. In that point, additionally they had the second-best pitching employees by ERA and the fourth-best by FIP due to a league-leading 51.3% groundball fee. Their fee of burning worms was 2.8 factors increased than the second-place Dodgers, the identical distance between Los Angeles and the Tenth-place Mets.

The Pirates achieved this by throwing sinkers at a 23.2% clip, separating them from the second-ranked Guardians by 5.5 factors, about the identical distance between Cleveland and the Tenth-place Angels. Coupled with pitch-framing enhancements and a transfer towards extra strategic infield positioning, the Pirates skilled a pitching leap that theScore.com’s Travis Sawchik chronicled in Large Information Baseball. This did wonders for quite a lot of hurlers, specifically Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, and Edinson Volquez. However others, equivalent to Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, solely blossomed upon leaving the Metal Metropolis.

Pittsburgh’s pitching equipment isn’t considered as revolutionary any longer, however they’ve had a stable report with artful lefties in recent times — suppose Wealthy Hill, Tyler Anderson, and Jose Quintana. Marco Gonzales, acquired from the Mariners (through the Braves) together with money in change for a participant to be named later, will hope to hitch that group. Maybe the soft-tossing southpaw — who, just like the Pirates of the 2010s, depends totally on inducing weak contact — would be the one to reignite one thing within the Metal Metropolis forges.

Okay, in all probability not, however when wholesome, Gonzales can no less than amass innings due to low strikeout and stroll charges. If the Pirates select to lean into that energy, they might have him reintegrate a sinker that, by some accounts, he deserted in 2021, as a result of pitch’s basic tendency to coax fewer whiffs and extra gradual rollers than the four-seamer.

On the similar time, Gonzales’ fastball appears to have grow to be more and more sinker-like over the previous two seasons. Baseball Savant, which has at all times lumped his sinker in together with his four-seamer, tells this story when limiting issues to simply what they label as four-seamers:

As Gonzales has dropped his launch, growing run and depth (although with barely much less depth in 2023), his heater has carried out worse and worse. As I surmised with Kevin Gausman, this variation in launch might have been carried out with longevity in thoughts; Gonzales’ extension has elevated barely due to the decrease launch, which may assist his velocity play up as he ages. But when there’s one factor that the Pirates have discovered after having everybody and their mom throw a sinker within the 2010s, it’s {that a} one-size-fits-all method gained’t minimize it on this age of superior participant improvement. Gonzales may benefit from extra “perceived” velocity, certain, however not if it comes with extra of a sinker-shaped fastball.

So the Pirates may have Gonzales throw extra sinkers, however the outcomes probably wouldn’t be good. He may nonetheless eat innings that means, however a greater approach to notch extra early-count contact — and delicate contact at that — can be to lean extra on his looping curveball. The deuce, a low-whiff and weak-contact-generating pitch itself, is his solely providing that has returned a optimistic run worth, per Baseball Savant, in each of the previous two seasons. Understanding this, the Mariners had him throw his curve at a 24.2% clip in 2023, a profession excessive.

The reality, although, is that the curve was a unique pitch solely this previous season. It grew a lot tighter as Gonzales added practically three ticks, stripping it of some inches of each vertical and horizontal break within the course of. Right here’s what it regarded like pre-2023:

And what it appears like now:

These two pitches begin on about the identical airplane, however what was spiked final 12 months now finally ends up just under the zone. Our on-site pitching fashions regard the revamped form fondly, and the tighter break has seemingly unlocked a brand new tier of management for Gonzales, which may assist it grow to be his main providing:

And this all got here as Gonzales’ forearm started to wear down. As MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer reported, the lefty had increasingly bother getting unfastened prematurely of and recovering after every of his begins in 2023. In the end, a compressed nerve was the perpetrator — one which controls pronation, at that. It’s robust to say whether or not the change in curveball form had something to do with it, but it surely’s price noting that the turning-over movement related to wrist pronation is extra typical of sinkers (another excuse Gonzales ought to keep away from one) and changeups (the lefty has turned to his change at an above-average clip throughout his profession).

Regardless, the information was about nearly as good as might be given the dreaded and ambiguous “forearm discomfort” Gonzales was initially sidelined with. He did succumb to season-ending surgical procedure, however different pitchers equivalent to Scott Alexander and Brandon Morrow underwent comparable procedures and had been in a position to return with out main hiccups; their all-important ligaments and tendons remained untouched, as is the case with Gonzales. He appears poised to enter Spring Coaching wholesome and supply some stability for a younger employees.

Make no mistake: the Pirates is not going to playoff sure for the primary time since 2015, and Gonzales does little to maneuver the needle, even when he’s a little bit of a throwback. However the going fee for innings-eaters nowadays is about one-year and $13 million; Gonzales is about to make $12.5 million in 2024, however with the Braves forking over some money within the deal, the Pirates’ efficient cap hit might be a lot much less. If the southpaw can keep wholesome and journey his revamped curve to success, he may present surplus worth within the type of quantity for a rotation with none shoe-ins in addition to Mitch Keller (particularly after Johan Oviedo’s harm), or he may present the impetus for a deadline deal to replenish a system that also ranks simply ninth even after drafting Paul Skenes.