JAWS and the 2024 Corridor of Fame Poll: Bobby Abreu

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Corridor of Fame poll. Initially written for the 2020 election, it has been up to date to replicate current voting outcomes in addition to extra analysis. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the device above; an introduction to JAWS will be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing venture, see right here. All WAR figures seek advice from the Baseball-Reference model except in any other case indicated.

Bobby Abreu might do nearly all the things. A five-tool participant with dazzling pace, a candy left-handed stroke, and sufficient energy to win a House Run Derby, he was additionally one of many recreation’s most affected person, disciplined hitters, capable of put on down a pitcher and unafraid to hit with two strikes. Whereas routinely reaching the standard seasonal plateaus that are likely to get observed — a .300 batting common (six instances), 20 homers (9 instances), 30 steals (six instances), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight instances apiece) — he was nonetheless a stathead favourite for his capacity to take a stroll (100 or extra eight years in a row) and his excessive on-base percentages (.400 or higher eight instances). And he was sturdy, enjoying 151 video games or extra in 13 straight seasons. “To me, Bobby’s Tony Gwynn with energy,” mentioned Phillies hitting coach Hal McRae in 1999.

“Bobby was approach forward of his time [with] regards to working pitchers,” mentioned his former supervisor Larry Bowa when presenting him for induction into the Phillies Wall of Fame in 2019. “In an period when guys have been swinging for the fences, Bobby by no means strayed from his recreation. Due to his pace, a stroll would flip right into a double. He was cool beneath stress, and at all times answerable for his at-bats. He was one of the best mixture of energy, pace, and persistence on the plate.”

The one factor Abreu couldn’t appear to do was achieve full appreciation for his broad set of presents. Regardless of sufficient promise to land on Baseball America’s Prime 100 Prospects checklist 4 instances, his first two groups, the Astros and Rays, bought unfathomably low on him. On the recommendation of Ed Wade, who was about to interchange him because the Phillies’ normal supervisor, Lee Thomas scored fairly a coup in buying him simply earlier than he turned 24. Abreu excelled perennially, however the core of gamers that Wade and the Phillies amassed — a few of whom would finally assist the group dominate the NL East — didn’t jell throughout his tenure, and so he toiled in semi-obscurity.

From 1998, his first yr as a daily in Philadelphia, to 2004, Abreu was the sport’s fifth- or sixth-most priceless participant in line with the 2 flavors of WAR, behind solely Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Todd Helton (through B-Ref), Andruw Jones, and teammate Scott Rolen. But not till the final of these seasons, his age-30 marketing campaign, did Abreu make his first All-Star group. He made simply two throughout his 18 seasons and gained a single Gold Glove, albeit solely after his fielding took a flip for the more serious.

Abreu wasn’t good. He developed a status for moodiness early in his profession and gave his first supervisor in Philadelphia, Terry Francona, complications. As early as 1999, he gained a status for his aversion to outfield partitions. His selectivity on the plate — he swung at simply 34.9% of all pitches from 2002 (when our splits begin) to ’14, the majors’ third-lowest price — was generally mistaken for passivity. He turned a goal for criticism as a result of he didn’t match the blue-collar mould of so many Philadelphia favorites. When he was traded to the Yankees in mid-2006, the yr earlier than the Phillies embarked upon their a streak of 5 straight division titles, one author referred to Abreu as a “fan punching bag.” Even so, Bowa, then serving because the Yankees’ third base coach, really useful the commerce to normal supervisor Brian Cashman.

The Phillies Wall of Fame is one factor, however the larger honor of the Baseball Corridor of Fame is one other story. Whereas Abreu was roughly a six-win participant for that 1998–2004 run, he’s a bit in need of the JAWS customary for proper fielders, although he’s one spot forward of Vladimir Guerrero, who was elected in 2018. When he debuted on the 2020 poll, the query wasn’t whether or not he’d ever get to 75%, however whether or not he’d clear the 5% wanted to retain his eligibility. He did, albeit by simply two votes. Between the thinning site visitors and the launch of a marketing campaign by the Phillies, he received a better look in the course of the 2021 cycle and improved his share of the vote, albeit from simply 5.5% to eight.7%. Mine was one of many 35 votes he obtained; after he was the ultimate lower from my digital poll course of in 2020, I had ample room to incorporate him on my very first poll. I’ve executed so annually since, and after roughly staying in place with 8.6% in 2022, he climbed to fifteen.4% final yr. Even so, he’s received a protracted method to go.

Born on March 11, 1974 in Maracay, Venezuela, Abreu was the second of six kids of mom Aguenda and father Nelson Abreu, a baseball fanatic whose job was loading crates onto vehicles, which within the impoverished village of Turmero made the household comparatively center class (which meant “no in-house telephones and minimal sizzling operating water,” in line with Jeff Pearlman’s 2001 Sports activities Illustrated profile). Nelson imparted Bob Kelly Abreu with a center identify in honor of Pat Kelly, a former All-Star outfielder who starred within the Venezuelan Winter League. Bob and brothers Nelson (the oldest), Dennys, and Nielsen performed stickball within the streets of Turmero as boys and soaked within the baseball knowledge of their father, who watched any American recreation that he might. All 4 boys all went on to play professionally, although moreover Bobby, solely Dennys rose above Excessive-A.

Abreu gravitated to baseball, and at age 14, whereas enjoying in a nationwide match, got here to the eye of Andres Reiner, a Hungarian-born scout who was within the technique of convincing the Astros to finance a baseball academy in Valencia, about 20 miles away. For 2 years, Abreu cut up his time between attending courses and enjoying baseball on the nascent academy. In August 1990, when he was 16, he signed knowledgeable contract with the Astros, thus turning into the primary of a wave of Venezuela-born gamers whom the group would signal through Reiner, a listing that features Raul Chavez, Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, Richard Hidalgo, Melvin Mora, Roberto Petagine, and Johan Santana. Abreu started his stateside skilled profession in 1991 and, after hitting .292/.375/.402 with eight homers and 15 steals for the Astros’ Asheville affiliate, cracked the Baseball America Prime 100 prospects checklist at No. 95.

Sadly, shortly after Abreu signed with Houston, his father was hit by a automotive in Turmero, an accident that left him a paraplegic. In 1992, whereas Bobby was enjoying within the VWL, he realized that his father had flown to Cuba for surgical procedure in hopes of restoring feeling to his legs however had died within the working room. Shortly afterwards, Bobby started asking individuals to name him by his father’s nickname, “El Comedulce,” a moniker that was nebulous in origin however that loosely interprets to “the candy-eater.”

By 1995, Abreu’s age-21 season, he was in Triple-A, hitting .304/.395/.516 with 17 triples (tops within the Pacific Coast League), 16 steals, and 10 homers for the Astros’ Tucson affiliate, a efficiency that pushed him to twenty ninth on BA’s checklist. He was barely much less profitable whereas repeating the extent and reportedly sulked after being despatched down on the finish of spring coaching, although the Astros nonetheless thought extremely sufficient of him to recall him for a September cup of espresso. His debut, on September 1 in opposition to the Pirates, was the final word in anticlimax: he was introduced as a pinch-hitter however changed when the Pirates switched from righty Chris Holt to lefty Dan Plesac. He went 0-for-10 with a stroll in his first 10 video games earlier than lastly accumulating his first hit, a pinch-hit single off the Mets’ Bobby Jones on September 24.

Abreu opened the 1997 season because the Astros’ beginning proper fielder and reeled off a nine-game hitting streak, however he was batting simply .245/.335/.361 earlier than fracturing a hamate bone in his proper hand. Misplaced within the outfield shuffle upon returning in early July, he performed simply 5 video games earlier than being despatched again to Tucson. “He went to Triple A with a poor angle, and he had a foul yr,” Astros normal supervisor Gerry Hunsicker informed SI. “He appeared like he was going backward.”

Although Abreu made the group’s playoff roster, the Astros soured upon him to the purpose of leaving him unprotected within the growth draft; past his angle have been considerations about his capacity to hit breaking balls and his tentative baserunning. Groups might shield solely 15 gamers from the whole group for the primary spherical of 14 picks by the brand new Arizona Diamondbacks and Tampa Bay Satan Rays, and Houston selected to guard Hidalgo over Abreu, who was taken sixth by Tampa Bay. He was then instantly flipped to the Phillies in change for light-hitting shortstop Kevin Stocker in a prearranged commerce.

Stocker produced simply 2.7 WAR, batting .250/.329/.347 (75 OPS+), in three seasons for the brand new membership. Abreu started the 1998 season because the Phillies’ proper fielder by hitting back-to-back singles off the Mets’ Jones (I spotted throughout penning this that I attended this 14-inning slog, or most of it) and cleared Stocker’s whole WAR with the Satan Rays by midseason. Delivering on the promise of his prospect rankings after which some, he hit .312/.409/.497 for a 135 OPS+ with 17 homers, 19 steals, and off-the-charts protection (+28 runs, in line with Whole Zone); his 6.4 WAR simply missed cracking the league’s high 10.

Regardless of, for Abreu would roughly approximate that stage for the following six seasons, delivering 35.2 WAR (5.9 per yr) from 1999 to 2004, with a low of 5.2 in ’01 (the one yr on this span by which he didn’t crack the highest 10) and a excessive of 6.6 in ’04. In 1999, he hit .335/.446/.549, main the league with 11 triples to go along with his 27 steals and 20 homers; he positioned third in batting common and on-base share (each would stand as profession highs) and seventh in OPS+ (147) and WAR (6.1).

Scarcely anyone observed, for Abreu didn’t make the NL All-Star group, although he did get twice as many factors as Bonds in the NL MVP voting — simply sufficient to put twenty third. The story was related in 2000 (25 homers, 28 steals, 143 OPS+, 6.2 WAR) save for a scarcity of MVP consideration. He completed a relatively lofty sixteenth within the voting in 2001, when he set profession highs with 31 homers and 36 steals (his first 30–30 season), however nonetheless, All-Stardom eluded him.

It didn’t assist that the Phillies have been busy going nowhere even with a younger nucleus that included 1996 second-round choose Jimmy Rollins, ’97 NL Rookie of the 12 months Rolen, ’97 second-rounder Randy Wolf, and ’98 No. 1 choose Pat Burrell. After successful simply 68 video games in 1997, their first yr beneath Francona, they gained 75, then 77 video games earlier than sinking again to 65 in 2000; in late July of that yr, they traded away workers ace Curt Schilling, who in April 1997 had accepted a below-market three-year extension to remain.

Francona received the axe on the finish of that season, however not earlier than operating out of persistence with Abreu, who regardless of his excellent performances had rankled the supervisor along with his power tardiness. Per Pearlman, veteran teammates questioned Abreu’s dedication, and Francona’s authority was undercut when he tried to ship Abreu dwelling after a late arrival, solely to have the self-discipline vetoed by Wade. “Bobby is an excellent child,” Francona mentioned, “however final yr he received somewhat sloppy. A whole lot of it was him going via the rising pains that include the duty of being an excellent participant. I’ll let you know this — Bobby Abreu could be very, excellent.”

Abreu straightened out beneath Bowa, a infamous hardass who in his opening salvo informed his gamers, “Don’t be late. In case you are, test in after which go dwelling. As a result of in case you’re late, it means you don’t give a shit.” The Phillies gained 86 video games that yr, in addition to in three out of Bowa’s 4 seasons, however they couldn’t end any increased than second within the NL East. Abreu, who signed a five-year, $64 million extension in February of 2002, stored chugging alongside, producing a mixed 11.4 WAR in 2002–03 with a pair of 20-homer, 100-walk seasons, batting averages of no less than .300, and on-base percentages of no less than .400. Whereas he might have discovered a consolation zone with the extra old-school supervisor, Bowa performed a major half in chasing off Rolen, who was dealt to St. Louis for Placido Polanco and two pitchers, a major step again for the Phillies’ lineup.

Lastly, in 2004, Abreu broke via. Within the midst of a .301/.428/.544, 30-homer, 40-steal marketing campaign, the 30-year-old proper fielder was lastly named to an All-Star group, although his recreation motion was restricted to placing out in a pinch-hitting look. His 6.6 WAR was a profession greatest, rating eighth within the league, besides, within the Phillies’ sad clubhouse, teammate Billy Wagner confronted him and charged him with not hustling on protection.

Beneath new supervisor Charlie Manuel, Abreu’s 2005 wasn’t practically as sturdy (126 OPS+, 3.6 WAR), however he was voted to start out within the All-Star Sport, the primary Phillies outfielder to realize that honor since Lenny Dykstra in 1995. Even earlier than going 1-for-2 with a stroll from the leadoff spot for the NL squad, he turned heads by successful the House Run Derby. Chosen to characterize Venezuela in a format designed to dovetail with the announcement of the 2006 World Baseball Basic, Abreu set data with 24 homers within the first spherical and 41 total, besting Puerto Rico’s Ivan Rodriguez within the finals.

Regardless of the present, Abreu turned a poster boy for the legendary Derby hangover impact when he hit simply six homers within the second half after bashing 18 within the first. He gained his solely Gold Glove at season’s finish, although it was a doubtful choice based mostly extra on status than metrics (-8 DRS and -7 UZR, his first time within the pink through the previous).

The ability outage carried over considerably, with Abreu homering simply eight instances in his first 98 video games in 2006. With the group seven video games beneath .500 in late July, the Phillies traded him and pitcher Cory Lidle to the Yankees for a package deal of 4 prospects headlined by former first-round choose C.J. Henry; just one prospect dealt (reliever Matt Smith) even received a cup of espresso in Philadelphia.

The Yankees wanted a full-time proper fielder within the absence of the injured Gary Sheffield, as Bernie Williams merely wasn’t as much as the duty in what proved to be his remaining season. Abreu, who had hit a still-useful .277/.427/.434 (118 OPS+) previous to the deal, recaptured his All-Star kind, batting .330/.419/.507 (138 OPS+) with seven homers in 58 video games in pinstripes. Although he drove in 4 runs within the Yankees’ Division Sequence-opening victory in opposition to the Tigers and went 5-for-15 with a stroll total, the Yankees have been eradicated in 4 video games.

Abreu spent two extra seasons within the Bronx, the second of them after the Yankees picked up his $16 million choice for 2008. Although not enjoying at an elite stage as he moved into his mid-30s — early-season slumps in each years dragged his remaining numbers down, and he was 11 runs beneath common defensively annually — he hit a mixed .289/.370/.458 (116 OPS+) with 36 homers, 47 steals, and 5.1 WAR over these two seasons and furthered his streak of 100-RBI seasons to 6. The Yankees couldn’t get previous Cleveland within the former yr, Joe Torre’s remaining one on the helm; Abreu hit .267/.353/.533 with a ninth-inning homer in Sport 4, shortly earlier than the group was eradicated. Within the latter yr, a banged-up Yankees squad missed the postseason for the primary time within the Wild Card period; in the meantime, his ex-Phillies teammates gained the World Sequence.

Abreu hit free company that fall however met a slightly frosty reception as he tried to counter the notion that he was “a serial compiler,” to make use of Jerry Crasnick’s time period. Reportedly in search of both a three-year deal or two years plus a vesting choice for $15–16 million yearly, he needed to accept a one-year, $5 million deal from the Angels in early February, simply earlier than camps opened. He was greater than value it, delivering 3.2 WAR (one of the best season he would have after 2006) and hitting .293/.390/.435 with 15 homers and 30 steals. The efficiency helped the Angels win their third straight AL West title, they usually swept the Purple Sox within the Division Sequence. Abreu went 5-for-9 within the collection and was proper in the midst of Sport 3’s three-run ninth-inning rally in opposition to Boston nearer Jonathan Papelbon, smacking an RBI double and scoring what proved to be the series-clinching run. He struggled within the ALCS in opposition to the Yankees, nevertheless, going simply 4-for-25.

Abreu parlayed that sturdy 2009 season right into a two-year extension with an choice alongside the strains of what he had beforehand sought, albeit with simply $19 million assured. Although he managed 20 homers, 24 steals, and a 118 OPS+ in 2010, he sank to a 105 OPS+ with eight homers in ’11, spending a lot of the season as a DH. His $9 million choice vested, however between the arrival of Albert Pujols in free company and the return of Kendrys Morales from a year-and-a-half absence as a result of a damaged leg, enjoying time was arduous to return by in early 2012, and he made simply 27 plate appearances earlier than being launched on April 27 in order that the Angels might name up a high prospect named Mike Trout.

Rapidly resurfacing with the Dodgers, Abreu hit for a 97 OPS+, spending time in a left subject platoon, however the July 31 deadline acquisition of Shane Victorino, his former teammate in Philadelphia, consigned him to a pinch-hitting position thereafter. After sitting out the 2013 season whereas tending to enterprise pursuits in Venezuela, the 40-year-old Abreu parlayed a powerful VWL displaying into a minor league deal with the Phillies. Minimize in late March, he caught the same cope with the Mets, whose supervisor, Terry Collins, had piloted the Astros when Abreu debuted. Although he flirted with a .300 batting common in late Might and early June, he completed at .248/.342/.338 in 155 PA and, close to the tip of the season, introduced his retirement.

…

Apart from stealing precisely 400 bases, Abreu fell simply in need of some round-numbered milestones that would have helped his Corridor of Fame case. He’s 30 hits in need of 2,500, 12 homers in need of 300, 9 factors in need of a profession .300 batting common (he was above the mark till 2009), 5 factors in need of a .400 on-base share (he slipped beneath in ’11), and 25 factors in need of a .500 slugging share. The primary three of these account for a possible 26 factors within the Corridor of Fame Monitor, which dishes out credit score for issues which have tended to sway Corridor of Fame voters: seasons or careers at .300, awards, league leads in key stats, playoff appearances, and so forth. That mentioned, for as a lot of a stathead favourite as Abreu is, he hardly eschewed the extra conventional markers of success. Even with simply the 2 All-Star picks and the lone Gold Glove, he scores 94 (in need of “a great chance”) on the Monitor thanks largely to his six seasons hitting .300, eight with no less than 100 RBI, and eight with no less than 100 runs scored.

Abreu’s greatest promoting level isn’t batting common however his elite capacity to get on base. From 1998 to 2011, he ranked in his league’s high 10 in walks 12 instances, not counting ’06, when he led the majors regardless of being dealt between leagues. Seven instances he was amongst his league’s high 5, and for his profession, his 1,476 walks rank Twentieth. From 1998 to 2005, he was among the many NL’s high 10 in on-base share seven instances, and within the majors’ high 10 in ’06. He didn’t come shut to three,000 hits, however his whole of three,949 instances on base (hits plus walks plus hit-by-pitches) is forty ninth all-time, instantly above Corridor of Famers Tim Raines, Tony Gwynn, Jesse Burkett, and Harold Baines (all however Burkett had extra plate appearances). Amongst gamers with no less than 7,000 PA, Abreu’s .395 on-base share is in a digital tie for forty third. His 128 OPS+ is tied for 111th, two factors beneath Carl Yastrzemski, Roberto Clemente, and Dave Winfield, one beneath Zack Wheat and Eddie Murray, tied with Goose Goslin and Jim Rice, and one level forward of Rickey Henderson, Willie Keeler, and Invoice Dickey, all of whom are Corridor of Famers.

Abreu’s case through WAR and JAWS is a bit much less convincing. His 369 batting runs (the first offensive part of WAR) is 87th all time, however he didn’t add overwhelming worth through different features of his recreation. Whereas profitable on 75.8% of his stolen base makes an attempt, he was simply 16 runs above common as a baserunner, the bottom mark of any post-1920 participant with no less than 400 makes an attempt and a 75% success price; that mentioned, he did add one other 17 for double play avoidance (Twentieth for the Wild Card period). He was roughly common within the subject, a internet -7 runs for his profession.

General, Abreu ranked among the many league’s high 10 in WAR 5 instances (and simply missed a sixth). His whole of 60.2 ranks Twentieth on the place, 0.3 beneath Sheffield, 0.2 above Ichiro Suzuki, and 0.7 above Guerrero; he’s above 14 of the 28 enshrined non-Negro Leagues proper fielders however 10.9 WAR beneath the usual at a really top-heavy place. His 41.6 peak WAR ranks seventeenth, forward of 17 of the 28 enshrined, together with Gwynn and Guerrero, and simply 0.8 beneath the usual.

Abreu is Twenty first in JAWS, 5.8 factors beneath the usual, forward of 14 of the 28 Corridor of Famers. The rankings from no. 15, the primary spot beneath the usual, to 24 make for an excellent assortment of late Twentieth- and early Twenty first-century gamers: Gwynn, Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Ichiro, Sammy Sosa, and Winfield are instantly above Abreu and beneath the usual as effectively, with Guerrero instantly beneath him, adopted by Bobby Bonds and Sheffield. Gwynn, Winfield, and Guerrero (considered one of two BBWAA-elected proper fielders who rank beneath Abreu, the opposite being the Twenty sixth-ranked Keeler) are within the Corridor already. Ichiro will sail into the Corridor when he turns into eligible subsequent yr. Evans, Sosa, and Sheffield are three guys whose inclusion or exclusion on varied ballots I’ve agonized over for numerous hours; so too with Abreu, who’s admittedly in borderline territory. But when Winfield along with his 3,000-plus hits is a first-ballot man and Guerrero along with his fashion and substance a second-ballot one — each whereas notably beneath customary in line with JAWS — then we will no less than take a better look to see if there’s room for yet one more.

Guerrero and Sheffield are one of the best hitters of the group, little doubt, with the latter doing it for longer. Abreu is essentially the most well-rounded of the bunch when it comes to issues moreover hitting, and he’s received one of the best peak rating of the quartet. All of which is to say that whereas I’m not 100% satisfied he’s a Corridor of Famer, I’m completely sure he’s any person who belongs within the dialogue and is perhaps value discovering area for on a poll, significantly when there aren’t 10 apparent must-vote candidates, if solely to push back the 5 P.c Blues.

In 2020, Abreu was the unfortunate eleventh man on my 10-man digital poll, and after I omitted him, I anticipated that he would be a part of the ranks of the one-and-dones. A small group of voters stunned me by protecting him in play, and with an precise poll in hand, I included each him and Sheffield on my first three ballots, and I intend to take action once more this yr (I left Sosa off in 2022, his remaining yr, in an unsuccessful bid to avoid wasting Joe Nathan from falling beneath 5.0%).

I’m heartened to see that the Phillies have stepped up an effort of their very own, even when among the stat mixtures they cite are of the junk drawer selection that JAWS (which fits unmentioned there) was designed to fight. No one cares about Abreu outranking Babe Ruth in doubles amongst proper fielders. Marketing campaign-wise, I don’t assume any group can match what the Mariners did for Edgar Martinez, who had a stronger case for Cooperstown and was extra totally embedded within the group’s historical past than Abreu is in Philadelphia, however that’s the mannequin to which any group ought to aspire in launching such an effort.

You don’t must be steeped in sabermetrics to know that 15.4% is a great distance from 75%, but when the previous a number of years have taught me something about Corridor of Fame voting, it’s that the instances are altering, and with them the chances for candidates to make such lengthy climbs. Break up the gap between Ted Simmons, the primary one-and-done candidate to be elected by the Period Committees, and Larry Walker, who sank as little as 10.2% in his fourth yr of eligibility, or notice that Andruw Jones has climbed from 7.3% to 58.1% over the course of his time on the poll, and you’ll see that it ain’t over for Abreu.