Brewers Reportedly Nearing Contract Extension with Jackson Chourio

Over the previous few days, trade news-breakers (starting with Ken Rosenthal) started to report that the Milwaukee Brewers and prime prospect Jackson Chourio are nearing a contract extension. Chourio, who turns 20 in March, has been among the many perfect prospects in baseball for the higher a part of the previous 18 months. He turned 19 simply earlier than the beginning of the 2023 season and slashed .280/.336/.467 in 122 video games at Double-A Biloxi earlier than the Brewers gave him a six-game shot of espresso at Triple-A Nashville in late-September. His energy, velocity and, extra not too long ago, his enhancements on protection give him uncommon upside as a 30/30 menace and plus middle subject defender.

The entire particulars of the contract aren’t identified, however Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first prompt that it will be one thing like an eight-year, $80 million deal. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reported that Chourio and the Brewers agreed to a construction and size of eight years, with two membership choices that will deliver the entire size to 10 years if exercised. Earlier right this moment, Jon Heyman of the New York Put up tweeted that the assured quantity will whole $82 million, accounting for a $2 million buyout of the Brewers’ membership choices, whereas McCalvy reported that the membership choices plus incentives may push the entire worth into the $140 million vary. If we assume that Chourio will make the Opening Day roster, this deal will cowl what would have in any other case been his six years of pre-free company service, two of his free agent years, and doubtlessly two extra. Even when the Brewers decide up the 2 crew choices, Chourio will hit free company once more earlier than he turns 30. It’s additionally price noting that the massive cash, team-option portion of Chourio’s contract doesn’t kick in till after Christian Yelich’s monster contract has expired.

Since Evan Longoria’s deal in 2008, it has change into increasingly frequent for younger gamers, even just a few like Chourio who’ve but to play on the main league stage, to signal extensions like this, with Luis Robert Jr.’s six-year, $50 million deal in 2020 the newest instance of a pre-debut pact. At one thing near a $10 million common annual worth throughout the pre-option portion of the contract, Chourio doesn’t even must be excellent for the Brewers to basically break even from a dollars-for-performance standpoint. Chourio does have a little bit little bit of hit software danger as a prospect (I’ll discuss that in larger element in a minute), however until there are off-field or injury-related points that crop up right here, likelihood is that Chourio goes to outperform the worth of his contract reasonably considerably throughout all however his two crew possibility years. For Chourio, he’ll make rather more cash on the entrance finish of his contract than he in any other case would have on a year-to-year pre-arb wage. He’s buying and selling that safety for the 2 below-market years of the deal that will in any other case have been the primary two years of a free agent contract in 2030 and 2031. The worth of his crew possibility years will possible be nearer to his open market AAV, and he’s younger sufficient to web yet one more huge deal after these years are over if he performs in addition to the trade tends to suppose he’ll.

Right here is his ZiPS projection for the assured lifetime of the contract:

Chourio will possible find yourself ranked about fourth total on my offseason Prime 100 Prospects record, give or take a spot or two. After Jackson Holliday and the rookie-eligible Yoshinobu Yamamoto, you can begin to argue about the best way to stack the subsequent tier of prospects, together with Chourio, James Wooden, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Junior Caminero, and possibly one or two different guys. Along with his exceptional surface-level statistical efficiency, right here is how Chourio’s Statcast-style knowledge compares to the common of the highest 30 middle fielders within the majors — take into accout he was a 19-year-old at Double-A:

Chourio additionally checks a lot of the containers from a visible scouting standpoint. He’s a plus-plus runner (routinely 4.10 from house to first, at instances a jailbreak 4.00 seconds flat) who has grown into being an important middle subject defender regardless that the previous second baseman has solely performed there full-time for 2 seasons and alter. He additionally has plus-plus bat velocity and is able to placing balls into the seats to all fields. The size of his swing may make it robust for Chourio to catch as much as main league velocity up round his arms and there’s a rigidity to the best way his arms work that I don’t love, which is the place the little little bit of hit software danger comes from. However Chourio’s expertise is so electrifying that even when he’s a flawed contact hitter, he’s nonetheless going to do sufficient different stuff at a excessive stage to be a star participant.

Plus, it’s encouraging that Chourio’s strikeout fee has improved since early in 2022, when he first started utilizing this high-octane swing. It’s attainable he’s simply getting higher really feel for this comparatively new model of swinging over time and that the whole lot might be tremendous. He’s additionally developed a extra dynamic strategy over the past two seasons and is now reducing out his leg kick with two strikes. As a result of he’s already proven the aptitude to make changes like this, we are able to anticipate that he’ll be capable to shorten up his swing if it seems he must. Once more, no matter qualms I’ve with Chourio’s swing he makes up for along with his bat velocity (which allows him to smash fastballs he’s a bit late on towards the alternative subject) and the facility he generates on contact. The Child Acuña comps are a little bit overzealous, as Chourio’s physique and athletic model are rather more tightly wound than Ronald Acuña Jr.’s. Certainly, from a construct and swing standpoint, I feel Bo Bichette is a extra apt comparability.

Two anecdotes about Chourio that I feel spotlight his motor and competitiveness: In late March of 2022, I used to be on the Brewers complicated in Maryvale to see two of their minor league spring coaching video games in opposition to the Mariners. The vitality stage of a minor league matinee like that is often fairly low, however Chourio was hellbent, flying across the bases and enjoying with an depth that elevated the vitality stage of all the recreation. The angle from which my digicam is usually positioned at this explicit Brewers backfield captures what’s taking place down the third final analysis, so I used to be in a position to get a portion of this on movie. Chourio, in fact, broke out in a profound manner all through the 2022 season.

The second story comes from this offseason. Chourio has performed about three weeks’ price of video games within the Venezuelan Winter League, a glance that has been a part of my movie research in preparation for offseason prospect content material and, because it seems, this piece. A number of instances throughout the previous few weeks, once I think about he was conscious of and/or actively engaged in contract negotiations with the Brewers, Chourio has gone tilting, full velocity, into outfield partitions making an attempt to make huge performs for Aguilas del Zulia. Your mileage might range as as to if or not that is telling or significant, however this man brings it for the sake of bringing it, which reinforces the arrogance I’ve in him turning right into a foundational, face of the franchise participant. Chourio will be a part of a clubhouse stuffed with different guys who do the identical, as Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Willy Adames, and others additionally play with their hair on fireplace.

This invitations us to wonder if that whole crew will nonetheless be round by Opening Day. Adames and Corbin Burnes commerce rumors are within the web zeitgeist, and the Brewers have extra younger outfielders than they’ve room to play. Along with Yelich, Chourio, Frelick and Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor is getting into arbitration and Garrett Mitchell returned from damage late within the 12 months. I’d pref that group, from a expertise standpoint, within the order I simply listed them. The NL Central feels prefer it’s broad open — our too-early 2024 projection has all the Central ending inside 10 video games of each other and the offseason mud is way from settled. But when Chourio hits the bottom operating and offers extra offense than guys like Mark Canha, Brian Anderson, and Wiemer did when Milwaukee gained the division final 12 months, it will go an extended approach to solidifying the Brewers’ place.