Within the early hours of Thursday morning, the Reds made their second signing in as many days, including right-handed pitcher Nick Martinez on a two-year, $26 million deal. Evidently, Cincinnati determined to get in on the regional pitching get together; of the 9 free-agent pitchers to signal MLB offers with new groups to this point, six have joined the AL or NL Central. To not point out that two of the 4 place gamers switching groups additionally got here to the Central, and phrase on the road is that the Brewers are signing prime prospect Jackson Chourio to an $80 million extension. The Central division groups, usually essentially the most ignored and underfunded, have been surprisingly lively to this point this winter.
Martinez, who turned 33 this previous August, is coming off the strongest season of his truncated profession. By no means a prime prospect, he struggled over elements of 4 seasons with the Rangers from 2014 to ’17, posting a 4.77 ERA and 0.5 WAR in 415.1 innings. He was non-tendered following the 2017 season, after which he spent 4 years in Japan, pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters and the Softbank Hawks of NPB. His 2021 season for the Hawks was significantly spectacular; he averaged greater than 6.2 innings per sport and completed second within the Pacific League in ERA (min. 50 IP), trailing solely Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His efficiency caught the eye of a number of MLB golf equipment, and when the lockout ended, he signed a four-year, $25.5 million take care of the Padres that included opt-outs after each single season.
Martinez carried out effectively sufficient in 2022 to flee his deal on the first likelihood he acquired, pitching to a 3.47 ERA and 4.43 FIP in 47 video games. His underlying numbers weren’t as spectacular as his ERA, and whereas he pitched in almost each position — starter, long-man, set-up man, nearer — a whole lot of his success got here in lower-leverage reduction alternatives. Nonetheless, he knew he might do higher than the three years and $18 million remaining on his contract, and certainly, just a few days after he opted out, he and the Padres agreed on a richer contract, albeit one nonetheless replete with choices, group and participant alike.
Martinez appeared even higher in 2023, however his efficiency wasn’t fairly sufficient to persuade the newly cost-conscious Padres to choose up their group choice for $32 million over the following two years. On the identical time, the righty determined he might do higher than his participant choice for 2 years and $16 million. His new take care of the Reds splits the distinction at $26 million over two years.
Clearly, it wouldn’t be a Nick Martinez contract with out an choice; this time, he can choose out after the primary yr of the deal, giving him the prospect to re-enter the market at age 34. Might Martinez grow to be the primary MLB participant to choose out of his contract in three consecutive offseasons? I don’t know verify that data, except for sending out a Sarah Langs bat sign into the evening.
It’s no coincidence that Martinez retains signing offers with opt-out clauses. There’s no easy method to measure the financial worth of an opt-out, but it surely’s a participant profit in a contract, so so as get one, gamers must sacrifice some assured cash, at the least in concept. So in every of the final three offseasons, Martinez has guess on himself, giving up that assured cash for the prospect to extend his worth and return to free company every winter, and to this point, that gamble has paid off.
Amusingly sufficient, Martinez primarily repeated his 2022 efficiency (44 runs allowed in 106.1 innings) in 2023 (45 runs allowed in 110.1 innings), however he did so in a a lot trickier offensive atmosphere, as scoring was up by one-third of a run per 9. He barely elevated his strikeout charge and decreased his stroll charge, good for a league-average 2.65 Ok/BB, however his actual trick was limiting residence runs and extra-base hits, giving up eight fewer doubles and three fewer residence runs in a season when the league as a complete hit 288 extra doubles and 653 extra residence runs. He pulled it off by inducing extra grounders and giving up fewer pulled fly balls and hard-hit line drives. It’s a easy system for fulfillment, as lengthy you may stick with it.
Batted ball distribution isn’t tremendous secure from yr to yr, and we’re solely working with 110.1 innings of information for Martinez in 2023. Nonetheless, he made massive adjustments to his pitch combine this previous season, and people adjustments appear to underlie his success. Right here’s how he altered his strategy in 2023, damaged down by position and opponent handedness:
Martinez leaned on his four-seam fastball when he first got here again from Japan, however he began to chop again on the pitch as soon as he moved to the bullpen in 2022, then continued that pattern in ’23. Towards righties, he largely changed his four-seamer along with his sinker, which helps clarify his Ninetieth-percentile groundball charge and Ninety fifth-percentile hard-hit charge. Proper-handed batters had a mean launch angle of 6 levels in opposition to his sinker and managed only a .035 remoted energy on it.
In the meantime, in opposition to opposite-handed opponents, Martinez continued to show to his changeup, which he threw considerably extra usually than another pitch. That was clearly the suitable resolution: lefties posted a .181 wOBA in opposition to it, whiffing on 42.7% of all swings. He additionally doubled his cutter utilization, and by throwing the pitch somewhat quicker and with added rise, he made it an efficient put-away choice in opposition to left-handed batters. Lastly, he barely upped the utilization and refined the motion profile of his uncommon curveball in opposition to all hitters. The pitch had a ton of drop, virtually no horizontal break, and boasted a 74.4% groundball charge.
Total, Martinez had the same diploma of success in opposition to righties and lefties, however he acquired there in several methods. Dealing with left-handed hitters, his changeup and cutter helped him generate 10.32 Ok/9; in opposition to righties, his strikeout charge was a extra pedestrian 7.48. However his left-handed opponents hit for a slugging share greater than 100 factors larger than their right-handed counterparts. Each the high-strikeout and soft-contact approaches can work, however neither is with out its drawbacks. One the one hand, I’m extra inclined to imagine Martinez’s manufacturing in opposition to lefties was the actual deal; batted ball luck adjustments with the wind, however you may’t faux all these strikeouts. That stated, a pitcher who provides up extra residence runs to left-handed batters goes to have a more durable time at Nice American Ball Park than Petco.
In keeping with The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosencrans, Martinez will doubtless come into spring coaching as a starter. That shouldn’t come as a shock, contemplating he’s begun every of the previous two seasons as a starter earlier than transferring to the bullpen. Apart from, it’s simpler to make the transition in that course than the opposite. And the Reds’ want for beginning pitching trumps their want for bullpen assist (which additionally they simply added within the type of Emilio Pagán). They ranked second-last within the Nationwide League in starter ERA final season, and solely a lot of that may be blamed on their hitter-friendly stadium; additionally they had the fifth-worst xFIP.
The Reds don’t have any scarcity of gifted younger arms on the 40-man roster, however not many they rely on. Hunter Greene has a 4.62 ERA over his first two seasons. Nick Lodolo missed virtually all the 2023 season with harm. Graham Ashcraft has flashed above-average stuff briefly bursts however by and huge appears to be like like a No. 5 starter. Andrew Abbott turned in a robust rookie season however stumbled down the stretch, posting a 6.42 ERA and 4.81 FIP over his ultimate 11 begins. He additionally struggled to overlook bats within the majors and minors. Fellow rookie Brandon Williamson posted a 4.46 ERA and 4.63 FIP in 23 begins; like Ashcraft, it’s laborious to see him as way more than a No. 5 starter.
It is smart why the Reds focused Martinez. He’s an choice for the rotation if the younger guys battle, however he may also step right into a bullpen position if sufficient of them pressure the difficulty. However whereas he is an effective match, he’s not the difference-maker that’s going to get the Reds to the playoffs. For that, they’ll depend on these younger gamers to take one other step ahead. However with out one other addition to the rotation, they’ll be asking a whole lot of from a bunch of unproven pitchers. Buying and selling for somebody like Tyler Glasnow would make an amazing distinction, and the Reds might tackle his $25 million with out even crossing the $100 million payroll threshold. That shouldn’t be an issue for a group that ran payrolls between $130–$150 million from 2019 to ’21, particularly since proprietor Bob Castellini is reportedly prepared to spend this winter. Nonetheless, given the group’s stinginess within the current previous and all of the uncertainty surrounding Bally Sports activities, it’s anybody’s guess what sort of finances Nick Krall has to work with.