This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat publication. To learn the complete publication, click on right here. And subscribe to get it commonly in your inbox.
As a substitute of making an attempt to guess who is likely to be basic supervisor Alex Anthopoulos’ most important acquisition each offseason, possibly it could be extra prudent to guess who shall be his large shock this time round.
This can be a custom that started a couple of month after Anthopoulos joined Atlanta to run the baseball operations division in November 2017, surprising many when he discovered a suitor for a declining Matt Kemp. The commerce with the Dodgers created long-term payroll reduction and netted Charlie Culberson and Brandon McCarthy, each of whom contributed to the sudden 2018 Nationwide League East title.
Johan Camargo supplied strong manufacturing after he was given the third base job six weeks into the 2018 season. So, Anthopoulos definitely created one other shock when he signed 2015 American League MVP Josh Donaldson to a one-year, $23 million deal to function the Braves’ third baseman in ’19. Donaldson’s lone season in Atlanta netted him a four-year, $92 million take care of the Twins.
Anthopoulos and Donaldson shaped a reference to the Blue Jays in 2015. There was a way this would possibly result in a long-term deal in Atlanta. However Anthopoulos’ finest transfer main into the ’20 season was to shrink back from re-signing Donaldson. After lacking half of that 60-game season, Donaldson has produced a .740 OPS and averaged simply 106 video games per yr over the previous three years.
With Donaldson gone, Anthopoulos signed Marcell Ozuna — first to a one-year, $18 million deal in January 2020, then to a four-year, $64 million deal in February 2021. Ozuna has had his share of issues over the previous 4 seasons, however his revitalization this previous summer time has restored worth as he approaches the ultimate assured season of his contract.
At completely different factors over the previous couple years, the Braves tried to swap Ozuna for the likes of Patrick Corbin or Madison Bumgarner, a pair of left-handed pitchers with detrimental worth. Now, as a substitute of swapping dangerous contracts, they really may commerce Ozuna to assist acquire one thing in return.
Or, they may simply put him proper again in the course of a fantastic lineup, one he routinely fueled this previous summer time.
If not by way of commerce, how are the Braves going to fulfill their want so as to add high quality to their rotation? The 34-year-old Grey appeared like a viable choice as a result of he can be prepared to take a 3 or four-year deal. In contrast to a few of his friends, Anthopoulos has been sensible sufficient to acknowledge giving six or seven-year offers to veteran pitchers isn’t good enterprise. Because of this 31-year-old Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Younger Award winner, and 30-year-old Jordan Montgomery don’t look like matches.
That stated, a six or seven-year deal for a man just like the 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto feels extra like an affordable gamble.
Will Anthopoulos shock with a free-agent signing or one other blockbuster commerce just like the one which introduced Sean Murphy to Atlanta final winter? That three-team commerce with the A’s and Brewers got here out of nowhere. Simply earlier than the Winter Conferences, a scout advised me the Braves had been buying William Contreras. This led me to put in writing about the potential of a commerce, however I didn’t essentially see Murphy coming to Atlanta in any potential deal for Contreras, who simply loved an All-Star season.
What’s going to this yr’s shock be? Buying and selling Ozuna as he heads into the ultimate yr of his deal definitely appears extra engaging than transferring one other member of the lineup. To get worth, you need to transfer worth. Ozzie Albies’ worth extends past his nice on-field manufacturing and Michael Harris II has the potential to change into an MVP candidate.
It appears unrealistic to suppose the Braves may correctly tackle their present and long-term rotation wants by buying and selling Max Fried as he enters the ultimate yr of his contract.
Given what Anthopoulos has completed over the previous few offseasons, it’s in all probability not sensible to imagine something apart from the probability he has one thing up his sleeve.