2024 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

For the twentieth consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the following workforce up is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

Not one of the projections right here will blow your socks off, however on the plus facet, only a few of them will get your socks moist (and you then’re strolling round all day along with your toes moist and clammy, and each time you step it makes just a little squishing sound, and also you assume there’s a little bit of filth in there and also you’d wish to take off your footwear, however that’s why you’re not allowed in Kroger anymore, so you’ll be able to’t). If social media is any indication, Matt Chapman is perhaps underrated at this level. He was horrible within the second half, however I haven’t discovered that to be very predictive, and general, he nonetheless gave the Blue Jays about 4 wins that they now have to interchange. Proper now, third base, together with left area and designated hitter, seems to be to be an amalgamation of position gamers, although I don’t count on that scenario to persist by Opening Day, if for no different cause than energetic rosters aren’t giant sufficient for Toronto to start out the season with all three of these unwieldy chimeras.

Bo Bichette is terrific and the Jays ought to increase him quickly, lest he take $300 million to go elsewhere in just a few years. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to be a little bit of an enigma. Certainly, he has turned out to be one of many more durable gamers to mission, which I wouldn’t have anticipated when he was a prospect. His upside continues to be there, however you’ll be able to’t get round the truth that he’s had one superior season, one stable season, and a complete lot of meh. ZiPS nonetheless thinks he’ll be stable, however virtually nothing between a one- and six-win season would shock me at this level. The facility numbers do recommend he ought to have hit for extra thump in 2023 than he really did.

Daulton Varsho’s nice, although in all probability not adequate to silence the second-guessing concerning the Gabriel Moreno commerce. George Springer confirmed some important indicators of decline in 2023, a development that’s more likely to proceed as he turned 34 late within the season. ZiPS is optimistic about Davis Schneider being nice at second base, although the pc isn’t precisely banking on one other 1.000 OPS (and neither do you have to).

Pitchers

With a pair apparent locations to enhance the offense, I might not be shocked to see the Blue Jays take a low-key strategy in terms of the rotation, and even stand pat. Hyun Jin Ryu is a free agent, however the Jays solely had him for a part of the season anyway, and the 4 wholesome returning starters — Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Yusei Kikuchi — all have relatively unsurprising projections. They may nonetheless commerce him this offseason, but it surely’s in all probability too early to put in writing off Alek Manoah. 2023 was an unforgettable season for the right-hander, within the sense that it will hang-out your goals it doesn’t matter what historic curse or potion you conjured to attempt to overlook it, however the reality stays that he was actually good in 2022, even once you regulate for a few of the smoke and mirrors round his 2.24 ERA that 12 months. Reliable pitchers are all the time laborious to seek out and costly to maintain, and just about any pitcher who is simply a 12 months faraway from relevance ought to have a whole lot of workforce curiosity so long as their arm is bodily hooked up.

Exterior of Jordan Romano, I’m undecided I’d name a lot of the bullpen thrilling, however it’s comparatively deep — ZiPS goes seven or eight relievers till it will get to the below-average guys. Jays relievers had been ninth in WAR in 2023 and sixth in FIP, however you not often noticed anybody discuss concerning the solidity of the unit. Now, I suppose a few of that’s to be anticipated — from my unscientific survey, about 95% of followers assume the first cause their favourite workforce isn’t performing higher is as a result of the bullpen is the worst one ever put collectively. However in any case, Toronto’s is a relatively secure group that doesn’t want a complete lot of tinkering this winter. Save that money for Shohei Ohtani! Oh, wait, I’m an Orioles fan, so I’d desire if the Jays didn’t do this. In the event you’re on the lookout for a ZiPS Particular within the reliever class, Connor Cooke, a fastball-slider reliever with a changeup-in-progress who struggled a bit in his transient Triple-A run however dominated in Double-A, would be the decide for you.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. The font measurement of the participant names is roughly proportional to their projected depth chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever potential. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2024 on account of damage, and gamers who had been launched in 2023. So sure, in case you see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Belgian Loss of life Steel Skiffle Band that solely performs songs by Franz Schubert, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected workforce WAR.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by flaws within the bodily actuality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You’ll be able to, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter.