José Ramírez Was Completely Totally different and Precisely the Similar in 2023

José Ramírez is the definition of a set-it-and-forget-it participant, and I imply that a minimum of slightly bit actually. Neither we nor our buddies over at Baseball Prospectus printed a single article that targeted on him throughout a 2023 season when, for the fourth time in a row, he completed within the high 10 within the AL MVP voting. He turned out to have a really attention-grabbing season, and never simply because he was, as at all times, glorious.

In June of 2022, Ramírez injured the ulnar collateral ligament in his proper thumb. To the shock of the Cleveland teaching workers, he determined to play by means of important ache and postpone surgical procedure till the offseason. Regardless of seeing his energy drop off dramatically, he ended the season with a 141 wRC+ and 6.4 WAR. He lastly had the surgical procedure in November and got here into the 2023 season wholesome, however he acquired off to a gradual begin and completed with a 123 wRC+. It was his worst exhibiting since 2019, when a damaged hamate bone ended his season prematurely. (As an apart, in case you’re determined for for reassurance that Mike Trout will bounce again from his hamate damage, look no additional than Ramírez, who instantly returned to superstardom in 2020.)

The graph under spans three years so you may see Ramírez in his wholesome 2021 season, then how his energy trailed off after the damage in ‘22, then the form of his 2023 season.

At first blush, that is a simple story to inform. Hand surgical procedure tends to rob hitters of power, and it took some time for all these tiny muscle mass in Ramírez’s hand to get again to regular. That large spike on the appropriate facet of the graph began rising on June 7, when he kicked off a nine-game hitting streak by going 2-for-4 with an RBI double in a win over the Crimson Sox. Listed below are his 2023 stats, utilizing that date as a dividing line:

Ramírez began hitting the ball a lot more durable. He hit 3 times as many house runs in properly underneath half as many plate appearances. In truth, he ended the season with a 90-mph common exit velocity, the best of his profession. These tiny little muscle mass actually matter. However whereas it’s a real story, it’s not the entire story. Listed below are some extra stats utilizing that very same dividing line:

For the primary 60 video games of the season, Ramírez wasn’t hitting the ball as arduous however was additionally considerably unfortunate (although a few of it was as a result of his batted ball combine, which we’ll get to later). On the similar time, he was placing the ball in play extra typically. His stroll charge was a bit decrease, and his strikeout charge was greater than a bit decrease. To place these numbers in context, since 2016, Ramírez has run a ten.5% stroll charge and a 12% strikeout charge. These first 60 video games have been the outlier.

What was he doing in a different way? It’s not that he was chasing extra or making loads much less contact. It’s that he was extra aggressive on pitches within the zone.

As soon as once more, the primary row is the outlier, and the second row is correct consistent with Ramírez’s profession numbers. He ended the season with a swing charge of 70.3% on pitches within the zone. That’s the best charge of his profession, all due to these first 60 video games.

Swinging at extra pitches within the zone is normally an excellent factor, however look what occurs if we use Baseball Savant’s assault zones and break the strikes down into pitches over the center of the plate and pitches within the shadow zone. The desk under is simply his swing charge:

Now we’re getting someplace. Once more, the desk above solely pertains to pitches within the strike zone; it doesn’t embody pitches that have been within the shadow zone however exterior the zone. At first of the season, regardless of not chasing extra, Ramírez didn’t actually distinguish between pitches over the center of the plate and pitches on the perimeters of the strike zone. After June 7, his swing charge on strikes within the shadow zone dropped again all the way down to and even under his profession charge of 57.6%.

As an example the significance of that change, I’m going to indicate you an unholy amalgam of two graphs from Pitcher Record. I took Ramírez’s strike zone judgment graph, and on high of it, I crudely pasted his choice worth graph. The white line reveals how typically Ramírez made the appropriate name in case you take a look at issues in black and white: swing at pitches more likely to be known as strikes, and lay off pitches more likely to be known as balls. The purple line reveals extra nuance, modeling the run worth of a swing or tackle any given pitch, then crediting or debiting the hitter based mostly on every choice.

See the large hole between the white and purple traces in the beginning of the chart? Earlier than his manufacturing took off, Ramírez was swinging at strikes and shedding balls, however he wasn’t essentially swinging at hittable pitches, particularly fastballs.

I discussed earlier that when Ramírez underperformed his wOBA throughout that early stretch, he may need been experiencing greater than unhealthy luck. That’s as a result of his batted ball distribution modified drastically:

Ramírez hit tons of fly balls, and he additionally hit extra balls to heart subject, the place it takes extra energy to do harm. That’s not a recipe for achievement in case you’re doing so at a time whenever you’re hitting the ball extra weakly. He additionally elevated his popup charge dramatically. Hanging out much less doesn’t assist in any respect in case you’re simply changing these strikeouts with a unique sort of computerized out.

That mentioned, there actually was some unhealthy luck occurring right here. This desk is his efficiency solely on strikes within the shadow zone:

Ramírez underperformed his xwOBA by almost 100 factors. It’s arduous to chalk all of that as much as batted ball distribution. On pitches over the center of the plate, he was nonetheless hitting the ball a lot softer, however his precise and anticipated efficiency was roughly the identical:

There’s much more nuance at play than now we have time to dig into. For instance, there’s the truth that Ramírez is a switch-hitter. Listed below are two extra swing choice charts, with Ramírez as a lefty on the left and as a righty on the appropriate:

All through the season, these two traces appear to run counter to one another, with Ramírez making good selections from one facet and unhealthy selections from the opposite facet. I don’t know the place to start untangling that one.

I’m afraid that’s the place I’ll have to depart you. There’s a chicken-and-egg dialog available right here. It’s attainable that Ramírez adjusted his plate self-discipline as a result of hits weren’t falling in, due to doubts about his hand, as a result of he wasn’t hitting the ball as arduous, or due to another issue we are able to’t guess at. It’s additionally attainable that that is simply the sort of factor that occurs, and the damage is a handy place to assign the blame. There’s no actual method to know, and as quickly as Ramírez hit that sizzling stretch in early June, he went again to his customary, extra considered strategy.

In the long run, except you’re digging into the underlying metrics, you’ll see solely one other classic José Ramírez season. By DRC+, which seems at underlying metrics and never simply outcomes, he was at 133, the third-best season of his complete profession. Because it stands, there’s no cause that we shouldn’t count on him to place up one other ho-hum, five-win season in 2024. Nonetheless, we must always in all probability pay slightly extra consideration to it, simply in case.