Good reduction is tough to seek out. Effectively, that’s not strictly true. Just about each staff in baseball has a number of good relievers, random guys who throw 100 mph and snap off ludicrous sliders. However sufficient good reduction pitching is tough to seek out, as a result of it takes a village’s price of relievers to get by means of a season, and the playoffs are much more difficult. As groups go to their bullpen earlier and earlier, they put extra strain on each arm in it, and the penalties to overworking your finest few arms are harsh.
The Braves appear to know that, as a result of they’ve been aggressive about including to their choices this offseason. They already had Raisel Iglesias and A.J. Minter as dependable choices. They gave Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contract extensions that valued them like strong mid-to-late-inning choices. They traded a sampler platter of former prospects for Aaron Bummer. Now they’ve added but once more by signing Reynaldo López to a three-year deal.
The Atlanta #Braves at this time signed RHP Reynaldo López to a three-year contract: pic.twitter.com/XQCNn9d2hB
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) November 20, 2023
“Why don’t you construct the entire bullpen out of closers” is generally only a rhetorical train, as a result of groups have restricted assets and bullpens function hierarchically. After you’ve got a seventh-inning man, two eighth-inning guys, and a ninth-inning man, the following reliever up received’t be pitching high-leverage innings. It’s simply math, and it’s simple math at that. There’s a cause that groups don’t function that method: it’s a waste of assets, kind of. In case you signal 5 closer-level relievers and pay them every the identical market-value contract, the fifth one will likely be supplying you with much less on your cash than the primary one, as a result of he received’t get to do probably the most useful reduction pitcher issues as usually, like locking down shut victories or preserving tie video games. There’s solely a lot leverage to go round.
That’s an excellent cause to not do what the Braves are doing, however they’re doing it anyway. Why? It’s not as a result of they don’t perceive math. Their entrance workplace is admittedly good at what they do, clearly. I believe that they’re including to the bullpen previous the purpose the place an inexpensive staff would possibly cease not as a result of they’re unhealthy at their jobs, however as a result of they’re so good that they’ve painted themselves right into a nook.
Take a look at the Braves’ roster and check out to determine a lineup improve. They’ve younger stars who will likely be with the staff for some time all throughout the diamond. They might use a cornerstone left fielder or shortstop, however there aren’t any of these accessible in free company this yr. The accessible choices aren’t clearly higher than what they already gave. They might use a Shohei Ohtani, as a result of everybody might, however they don’t look like front-runners there, and that market is shrouded in thriller anyway.
That simply leaves pitching, and Atlanta was reportedly in on Aaron Nola earlier than he returned to Philadelphia. A 3rd prime arm to work with Spencer Strider and Max Fried, and maybe to switch Fried if he departs in free company after subsequent season, is an apparent match. The Braves purchased themselves just a little time and suppleness by selecting up Charlie Morton’s choice, however they’ll undoubtedly be fishing across the bumper crop of starters which might be accessible, and I believe they’ll assuredly find yourself with somebody who tasks to be an excellent starter in 2025 and past.
That also leaves some cash to be spent, although. The Braves are worthwhile, and so they’ve been pouring earnings again into the on-field product now that their stadium-adjacent actual property growth is up and working. Their contract extension technique has been so efficient that they will’t precisely use their earnings locking up current stars; they’ve already finished that with everybody on the staff aside from Fried. Meaning the clear place to flex their muscular tissues is within the reduction pitcher market. That makes López an excellent match, and Atlanta is attempting to cowl a number of bases with this signing. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that López will spend the winter stretching out as a starter, and that the staff received’t decide his function till spring coaching.
To me, that’s largely a smokescreen. He hasn’t been an efficient starter since earlier than the pandemic season, and one of many causes he popped a lot within the bullpen is that he might mothball his much less efficient pitches and follow a fastball/slider mixture. My finest guess is that the Braves merely have so many relievers proper now that they don’t see any hurt in letting López attempt to stretch out his arm. If he can do it, superior. If he can’t, perhaps that offseason of coaching will unlock just a few additional video games the place he goes a number of innings, or some swingman-style begins the place he fills in for a rotation hole.
As a reliever, López is true on the margin between set-up man and nearer. He made the full-time swap from beginning to relieving in 2022 and dominated straight away, however a variety of his worth got here from otherworldly house run suppression. He was worse this yr however nonetheless managed to place collectively a strong season throughout three groups, and his strikeout price exploded after stubbornly staying low regardless of sturdy peripheral indicators the earlier yr. He ended the season as Emmanuel Clase’s prime understudy, and that felt like a great spot for him. If he’s the very best reliever in your bullpen, it’s in all probability not an excellent bullpen, however he’s wonderful in case you’re utilizing him as a second or third choice.
That’s exactly the place the Braves discover themselves. As I discussed above, they’re going all out to bulk up their bullpen in the intervening time. López is actually certainly one of their prime 5 relievers, however I’m not precisely positive the place he suits in that group. I’d peg him as third-best, with loads of volatility round that as a result of I’m unsure what he’ll seem like after a winter working with Atlanta’s pitching growth group. Regardless, although, this can be a fearsome bullpen. Even when one or two guys get damage or in any other case don’t pan out, the Braves will be capable to throw devastating pitching firepower on the center and late innings subsequent yr. Within the playoffs, they’ll be capable to keep away from the varied over-use penalties that relievers endure from by rotating their secure of wonderful choices.
If by some minor miracle López as an alternative finally ends up behind the rotation, none of that flexibility goes away. When rotations shorten up in October, he can flex again to the bullpen as a multi-inning choice. If the staff finally ends up brief on relievers because of a rash of accidents, or if he scuffles attempting to show a lineup over a number of instances, he may be slotted again into reduction. There are a variety of methods for him to contribute in 2024, which makes him an excellent luxurious signing for a staff that has every part aside from pitching certainty.
To make sure, the Braves are paying López an excellent quantity for that certainty. His deal has three assured years for $30 million, however because of the construction of the fourth-year membership choice (the buyout is 50% of the whole worth), it’s extra like a four-year, $34 million cope with a slight low cost if he flames out within the first three years. That’s near my estimate — three years and $27 million — and proper in keeping with what good non-closers have gotten in free company of late.
If he’d wished to, López probably might have gotten the same deal from a less-loaded staff and had a transparent maintain on the no. 2 reduction job. He’ll be a part of a many-armed machine in Atlanta, and he’ll have much less of a sure function. However he’s additionally attending to strive his hand at beginning, and he’s locking himself into playoff competition for the foreseeable future. This signing would possibly really feel unusual — one other reliever for a staff that already has so many — however I believe it’s a extremely good match general. When the Braves are working out a multi-headed bullpen monster subsequent October, bear in mind this week of signings, as a result of they’re paving the best way for a sensational bullpen, even when the staff hits just a few bumps alongside the street.
