Philly baseball followers didn’t even have to attend till the turkeys have been within the oven for the primary main Phillies information of the offseason, as Bob Nightengale and Jeff Passan reported Sunday that the group has introduced again Aaron Nola on a seven 12 months, $172 million contract that may hold their no. 2 starter on the town till the top of the 2030 season.
The Phillies have loved important postseason success not too long ago, with a visit to the World Sequence in 2022 and an NLCS run that just about resulted in a return to the Fall Traditional this 12 months. That being stated, attending to the playoffs through a Wild Card spot is at all times going to be a extra unsure path than profitable the division, and in every of the final two seasons, the Phils completed nicely behind the division chief. For a group with an getting old core that’s in win-now mode, the purpose is to do higher, and it could be arduous — and costly — to enhance the group from 2023 with out conserving Nola within the fold. Nola, the group’s first-round choose again in 2014, received’t come cheaply at $172 million. From a pure worth standpoint, ZiPS isn’t overly enthusiastic about that determine:
ZiPS Projection – Aaron Nola
| 12 months | W | L | ERA | FIP | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | 8 | 3.84 | 3.37 | 30 | 30 | 180.3 | 164 | 77 | 22 | 36 | 195 | 113 | 3.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | 9 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 28 | 28 | 168.7 | 157 | 75 | 21 | 34 | 178 | 109 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 9 | 9 | 4.22 | 3.70 | 26 | 26 | 158.0 | 152 | 74 | 21 | 33 | 161 | 103 | 2.4 |
| 2027 | 8 | 9 | 4.44 | 3.91 | 26 | 26 | 148.0 | 149 | 73 | 21 | 32 | 146 | 98 | 2.0 |
| 2028 | 8 | 8 | 4.75 | 4.16 | 24 | 24 | 142.0 | 148 | 75 | 22 | 32 | 135 | 92 | 1.5 |
| 2029 | 6 | 9 | 5.07 | 4.47 | 21 | 21 | 124.3 | 137 | 70 | 21 | 31 | 114 | 86 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 5 | 8 | 5.37 | 4.68 | 18 | 18 | 107.3 | 122 | 64 | 19 | 28 | 96 | 81 | 0.5 |
But when any group is justified in paying greater than the projection suggests for Nola, it’s the Phillies, provided that they’re a rich group smack dab within the win vary the place further wins are probably the most useful.
This projection is a giant step down from Nola’s forecast earlier than final season, when ZiPS would have steered a seven-year, $158 million extension, considerably nearer to his precise contract determine. Drawback is, Nola did have a relative down season, nicely off his 2020-22 averages, and that makes him riskier when contemplating a giant deal. Whereas Nola will in all probability enable fewer house runs in 2024, batters did hit him extra efficiently than in 2022. Together with his exit velocity and hard-hit numbers going up a bit, it isn’t all easy house run volatility at play. Dropping 20-25% of your strikeout price is a worrying signal for an older pitcher as nicely. That being stated, it’s a nonetheless an inexpensive begin to the offseason for the Phillies, who hopefully received’t be content material to only hold the present group intact.
My colleague Ben Clemens might be again tomorrow with extra on the Nola signing.