2024 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

For the twentieth consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent group up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

With the sudden collapse of the Cardinals, the Rays are arguably the holders of the crown within the solid-but-not-spectacular division. With one problematic exception, simply trying on the depth chart, you see an entire bunch of twos and threes however no apparent MVP candidates, until Yandy Díaz finds but one other further gear in him. However there’s additionally nearly nowhere on the diamond the place you count on an enormous collapse if compelled to seek out an emergency fill-in. Manuel Margot can capably take any outfield job handily, and elsewhere, Curtis Mead, Vidal Bruján, Junior Caminero, and Jonathan Aranda can cowl most something wanted exterior of catcher.

It’s onerous, nevertheless, to disregard the Wander Franco state of affairs when discussing how good the Rays will likely be subsequent 12 months. The authorized state of affairs is one thing for the Dominican Republic to deal with, however the Rays nonetheless should do their baseball planning round it, and as of proper now, they’ve an All-Star with MVP upside who could by no means play once more as a result of some critical allegations in his residence nation. 4 wins is a fairly large swing, and there isn’t actually an acceptable store-brand generic model of him that the Rays can provide you with as a Plan B. That may very well be Carson Williams quickly, however the begin of 2024 appears to be a bit too shortly; his modest .202/.274/.366 projections in ZiPS is a whopping 60 factors decrease than his Steamer projection.

I count on the group to do its standard greenback retailer procuring and discover one other catcher, one other candidate for shortstop, and possibly an additional bat for designated hitter, which appears to be like to be the weakest spot in ZiPS. On that final level, ZiPS is unquestionably not bullish on Harold Ramírez repeating his 2023 numbers.

Pitchers

Shedding Shane McClanahan for a 12 months is brutal. The Rays misplaced greater than their fair proportion of beginning pitchers this season, however he was one of many key parts that made the accidents to Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen survivable. Now, although, McClanahan is out for 2024, Springs and Rasmussen are each prone to miss a big a part of the season, and Baz’s actual return may be very a lot up within the air.

Even if you happen to’re very optimistic in counting on the well being of Tyler Glasnow, he might not be again in Tampa subsequent season. Meaning a variety of the Rays’ pitching destiny is within the arms of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, although ZiPS at the least is bullish on each of them for ’24. Taj Bradley’s stint within the majors got here with some actual hiccups, however a variety of the issue is the house run price, which is extraordinarily risky for pitchers. ZiPS at the least thinks he’ll take a spot in the course of the rotation sooner or later, and the Steamer projection is sort of an identical. Possibly Tampa will repair Cal Quantrill or one thing!

ZiPS is often exuberant in regards to the Rays’ bullpen, however this time round, as an alternative of the standard 10–12 pitchers on the depth chart projected to be above common, I’m solely counting seven or eight. They nonetheless have a variety of fascinating choices that no one has ever heard of, like Chris Gau and Cameron Leonard, but it surely’s really sparser in that division than most seasons. I count on to see the Rays hand out NRIs to a larger-than-typical variety of minor league FA relievers this spring. Adam Leverett is one other title to recollect, not too long ago picked up from the Phillies in a quiet commerce. Don’t be stunned at that platoon cut up projection; he’s had notable reverse splits within the minors due primarily to his greatest pitch being a full of life changeup with some good fade. If transformed to full-time aid, ZiPS initiatives a 3.89 ERA/108 ERA+, making him probably one other helpful participant plucked from the Island of Misfit Toys.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2024 as a result of harm, and gamers who had been launched in 2023. So sure, if you happen to see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Belgian Loss of life Metallic Skiffle Band that solely performs songs by Franz Schubert, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected group WAR.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by flaws within the bodily actuality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You may, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter.