You Name {That a} Comeback?

The standards for successful a batting title are crystal clear. A participant wants:

1. 3.1 plate appearances per group sport in both the NL or AL

2. The best batting common (H/AB) in that respective league

Even within the exceedingly uncommon circumstance during which a participant can win the batting title with fewer than 3.1 PA per group sport, so long as he would nonetheless possess the very best batting common if he went hitless in sufficient at-bats to succeed in the required plate look threshold, the principles are totally laid out. There’s no room for interpretation.

Few different particular person honors within the sport work this fashion. For proof, look no additional than the MVP debate, which rages on to this present day: Is there a significant distinction between the greatest participant and essentially the most helpful participant? After many years of argument, a consensus stays out of attain.

Awards just like the MVP, Cy Younger, and Rookie of the 12 months will all the time be contentious as a result of they’re decided by a panel of human voters somewhat than a statistical calculation. However the distinction between the batting title and the BBWAA awards goes past the subjective/goal distinction. The standards for the BBWAA awards (and most different particular person honors) aren’t simply subjective; they’re extremely minimal. Not solely is it as much as every particular person voter to determine who essentially the most helpful participant is, however it’s also every voter’s job to find out what the phrase “helpful” even means. Because the BBWAA places it on the MVP poll, there is no such thing as a “clear-cut definition” of “most precious.”

This goes past the MVP award, even when that exact prize is the supply of the fiercest argumentation. I’ve taken half in debates about whether or not pitcher protection (and earlier than the common DH, pitcher offense) ought to play a job in Cy Younger voting. I’m a agency “no” in that dialogue, however I’ve been shocked to learn the way many individuals really feel the alternative manner. To be truthful, they’ve some extent; it’s not completely clear if the Cy Younger is for the greatest pitcher or the perfect pitcher.

There’s loads of squabbling available over any subjective award, however I’ve discovered none as troublesome to pin down because the Comeback Participant of the 12 months, offered by MLB itself and chosen by a panel of MLB.com beat writers. We are able to nitpick the definitions of phrases like “most precious,” “greatest pitcher,” or “high rookie,” however in the end, the distinction between anybody’s particular person opinions will likely be comparatively small. The phrase “comeback,” nonetheless, is open to much more interpretation. The place do I even start?

First issues first, there’s a distinction between the perfect comeback and the perfect comeback participant. The previous implies a participant who noticed essentially the most vital year-over-year-over-year decline and subsequent enchancment in his numbers; the latter conjures up a picture of the perfect general participant who had some type of bounce-back season. To make issues much more complicated, neither of these interpretations essentially captures the essence of the award. Ronald Acuña Jr. suits each descriptions, and but in some way, he doesn’t appear to be a practical contender.

Maybe a participant will need to have been really unhealthy (or injured) the earlier season to make for an excellent candidate. However the high quality of the comeback efficiency appears to matter greater than the magnitude of the comeback. In any other case, Eddie Rosario would make a superb selection this yr; his WAR swung up from -1.1 to 1.4, a distinction of two.5 wins. For comparability, presumptive NL winner Cody Bellinger solely noticed his WAR improve by 2.3.

On the same observe, to outline a comeback, we should additionally outline an enchancment. In different phrases, does a comeback season necessitate a deep, underlying enchancment in a participant’s profile, or are the surface-level numbers extra related? Did a participant actually bounce again if his down yr (or his comeback season, for that matter) was merely the results of year-to-year fluctuations in outcomes on balls in play? Check out this aesthetically displeasing but splendidly illustrative graph evaluating Corey Seager’s wOBA and xwOBA percentiles from 2021 to ’23:

Going off his triple-slash line, you might make a compelling case for Seager because the AL Comeback Participant of the 12 months. On the identical time, does it depend as a comeback if nobody ever thought he was gone within the first place?

In the same vein, now we have the case of José Berríos, who has an excellent likelihood to take dwelling the {hardware}. By ERA and WAR, he’s a strong candidate, however by most metrics, his numbers lag behind his peak kind from 2021. Moreover, his SIERA and xFIP are nearly an identical in every of the previous two seasons, suggesting the likelihood that his supposed bounceback is little greater than a mirage created by a bad-luck season and a good-luck season back-to-back:

To complicate issues additional, I’ve to date been utilizing year-to-year comparisons for varied candidates, however there’s no simple reply for the way lengthy a participant has to wrestle for his reemergence to qualify as a comeback. Certainly, there appears to be a relationship between the size of the down interval and the diploma of bounceback essential to win the award. Take into account Daniel Bard in 2020. He solely produced 0.5 WAR in his so-called comeback season (with a 3.65 ERA and three.64 FIP in 24 video games), however he hadn’t performed within the main leagues in over seven years. In the meantime, Bryce Harper was a finalist for the MLBPA Comeback of the 12 months this season (a separate award than the MLB Comeback Participant of the 12 months, however a related instance nonetheless), and that man was an All-Star and the NLCS MVP final season. He didn’t come again from a down yr; as a substitute, his nomination acknowledged how shortly he returned to celebrity kind following Tommy John surgical procedure.

To that time, voters even have to think about what, precisely, the candidates are getting back from. Probably the most easy reply is a chronic droop or decline part, like Albert Pujols in 2022. It will get extra difficult once we think about accidents; from which accidents should a participant come again somewhat than merely return? Is there even a distinction? Furthermore, the circumstances surrounding an harm could be simply as related as the precise harm itself. Justin Verlander was an apparent selection when he returned from Tommy John surgical procedure to win his third profession Cy Younger at age 39. Tyler Glasnow may win this season for his personal return from TJS, however his candidacy is far much less compelling. In idea, the award may go to a Tommy John affected person each season; Lord is aware of there are sufficient of them as of late. However as a younger and proficient pitcher, Glasnow was nearly as good as wager as anybody to bounce again. Is lacking a yr to harm sufficient to warrant the phrase “comeback” anymore?

Along with down years and accidents, there are often distinctive circumstances. On the constructive finish of the spectrum, you’ve a winner like Carlos Carrasco in 2019. He wasn’t good, per se, upon his return, however returning to the sector the identical yr he was identified with most cancers was a outstanding achievement in and of itself. How can we evaluate every other comeback to one thing like that? This yr, Liam Hendriks is in the same place, however with an added complication: he landed again on the injured listing nearly instantly after he returned. It’s laborious to think about anybody could possibly be upset if he gained, however I couldn’t disagree with any voter who went in a special course.

On the much less inspiring finish of the spectrum, there are candidates like Fernando Tatis Jr. Objectively, you might make the case that he’s essentially the most deserving participant within the Nationwide League this yr. His 4.4-WAR season after a number of surgical procedures and 182 video games off is undeniably spectacular. However the circumstances surrounding his “time without work” will doubtless forestall him from garnering critical consideration. With regards to such a subjective award, there is no such thing as a denying that character performs a crucial position. For that very same purpose, Aroldis Chapman is unlikely to win within the AL. Statistically talking, he has a robust case, however the way in which he walked away from the Yankees final October will work in opposition to him, to say nothing of his home violence suspension in 2016. Why honor a comeback in case you weren’t rooting for it within the first place?

Lastly, there’s the Ryan O’Hearn of all of it. The Orioles’ first baseman/nook outfield was chosen as a finalist for the MLBPA Comeback Participant award, alongside Glasnow and Hendriks. However with no disrespect towards O’Hearn, it’s past me what the gamers assume he’s getting back from. The 30-year-old was by no means a high prospect, and except for a flash within the pan of offensive success throughout his 44-game rookie marketing campaign, he has by no means been a productive large league bat. So what can we glean from his nomination, moreover the truth that the participant voters in all probability aren’t poring over the numbers the way in which I’m?

There’ll all the time be a greatest participant, a greatest pitcher, and a greatest rookie, irrespective of how uninspiring the candidates. However there gained’t all the time be a good selection for Comeback Participant of the 12 months. That’s sure to occur with an award that’s extra about narrative and intestine feeling than clearly outlined standards. It’s the ultimate wrinkle in a dialog already begging for Botox.

As Voltaire as soon as stated, “When you want to converse with me, outline your phrases” (a minimum of in line with a poster my freshman roommate hung in our dorm room). It’s an affordable request. How can we decide a Comeback Participant of the 12 months if we don’t even know what a “comeback participant” actually is? Then once more, maybe I’m simply taking this far too significantly for an award that was established as a promotion for Viagra. If overcomplicated ideas concerning the Comeback Participant of the 12 months Award persist longer than 4 hours, name your physician.