As I’ve finished for the previous few years, I’m going to be grading every eradicated postseason supervisor on their decision-making. We spend the 12 months largely ignoring managers’ on-field contributions, as a result of to be sincere, they’re fairly small. Utilizing the mistaken reliever within the eighth inning simply doesn’t really feel that unhealthy on June 22; there are such a lot of extra video games nonetheless coming, and the common season is extra about managing the grind than getting each potential edge every single day. The playoffs aren’t like that; with so few video games to separate wheat from chaff, each final ounce of win likelihood issues, and managers make personnel choices accordingly. What higher time to grade them?
My purpose is to judge every supervisor by way of course of, not outcomes. Should you usher in your greatest pitcher to face their greatest hitter in an enormous spot, that’s a great choice no matter final result. Attempt a triple steal with the bases loaded solely to have the opposite staff make 4 throwing errors to attain three runs? I’m most likely going to name {that a} blunder regardless that it labored out. Managers do loads of different issues — getting staff buy-in for brand spanking new methods and unconventional bullpen utilization behind closed doorways is a ability I discover notably precious — however as I’ve no perception into how that’s achieved or how every supervisor differs, I can’t precisely assign grades for it.
I’m additionally purposefully avoiding imprecise qualitative issues like “trusting your veterans as a result of they’ve been there earlier than.” Playoff protection lovingly focuses on clutch performs by confirmed performers, however Josh Jung and Geraldo Perdomo have been necessary, too. Neglect trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your greatest gamers. Nathan Eovaldi is effective as a result of he’s nice, not due to the variety of playoff collection he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been round a very long time; after I’m evaluating choices, “however he’s a veteran” simply doesn’t enter my thought course of.
One word: Within the pitching part, I’m taking a extra particular have a look at reliever matchups. This 2022 Cameron Grove examine, which I’ve talked about in a couple of prior report playing cards, measures a repeat-matchup reliever penalty. A forthcoming article, which I’ve reviewed, examines the problem with out specializing in particular matchups, however fairly taking a look at relievers pitching on back-to-back days or on brief relaxation after heavy workloads. Each of this stuff are, unsurprisingly, unhealthy for reliever efficiency. Managing the stability between starter and reliever over-work is de facto laborious. I most likely haven’t given sufficient credit score to the need of balancing bullpen workloads towards explicit opposing batters up to now, however I’ll make a remark of it going ahead.
I’ve already coated the shedding managers of the Wild Card spherical, the numerous Division Sequence eliminations, and the ALCS. At present, it’s Rob Thomson’s flip.
Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies
Batting: B
There are numerous video games to cowl for the Phillies, and their lineup was pretty static, so let’s do that one at double pace. Thomson began the playoffs by platooning Brandon Marsh and Cristian Pache. The Marlins have a ton of lefty starters and likewise a ton of lefty relievers, which meant Thomson was prepared to let Pache bat towards righty relievers early within the sport, to keep away from getting Marsh picked on later. This felt barely too cute for me – numerous these lefty relievers invariably bought aimed toward Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, not at Marsh – however I see the place he was coming from.
Whereas Pache bought nearly all of the enjoying time towards Miami, it was Marsh’s flip towards Atlanta, although Pache drew the beginning towards lefty Max Fried. That’s one of many few lineup choices Thomson made within the NLDS, although I additionally give him credit score for selectively amping up baserunning; with Spencer Strider on the mound in Recreation 1, the Phillies knew they’d should scrape collectively runs, and so they tried six steals in consequence. Towards Fried, who holds runners effectively, they went again right down to no makes an attempt, then stole two bases off of reliever Kirby Yates. Towards Bryce Elder, they didn’t try a single steal: Why waste valuable outs while you’re planning on scoring rather a lot? It additionally helped that they went up 6-1 early.
By the beginning of the NLCS, Marsh had carried out effectively sufficient to alter Thomson’s thoughts; he started leaving Marsh in towards lefty relievers. I believe there was a great argument to do that all alongside; Marsh is a meaningfully higher hitter than Pache, and by sufficient that bringing in a chilly Pache as a pinch-hitter, even with the platoon benefit, may not be an enchancment. Mix that with the truth that Arizona doesn’t have any lefty starters, and that meant Marsh performed every single day the remainder of the way in which.
That leaves me with just one choice to speak about: Johan Rojas’ sacrifice bunt in Recreation 7. I’m usually against bunts that aren’t bona fide makes an attempt to succeed in base. It’s one factor to try to bunt for a success and find yourself merely advancing the runner, however that’s not what we’re speaking about right here; this was a pure sacrifice. I didn’t prefer it. I notably didn’t prefer it as a result of Schwarber, who had been strolling a ton within the collection, was on deck. He may get you that additional 90 ft even when Rojas didn’t do it, and Rojas is so quick that he wasn’t more likely to hit right into a double play. That felt like a uncommon occasion of over-managing from Thomson, who largely bought out of the way in which and let his hitters go to work. That may be laborious for managers, however Thomson did very effectively at it together with his lineup and batting choices.
Pitching: B+
One beauty of the Phillies pitching workers? They’ve some nights the place they merely can’t be mismanaged. The Wild Card collection was one instance: Zack Wheeler went 6.2 innings with one earned run, after which Aaron Nola went seven scoreless the following evening. Thomson ably blended and matched his relievers behind them – lefties to power Miami’s weak bench into play, righties towards Jorge Soler – and made simple work of the collection.
Dealing with the Braves offense, however, is rarely simple work. Thomson and the Phillies got here up with a plan to get as many righty/righty pitching matchups as potential towards Atlanta’s fearsome group of right-handed mashers. That meant an early hook for Recreation 1 starter Ranger Suárez, and Thomson added a wrinkle by telling everybody however the starter what can be taking place, which let the bullpen put together extra successfully. I appreciated this transfer rather a lot; the Braves are only a nice offense, interval, however they’re notably deadly towards lefties, so lengthening the bullpen when Philadelphia began a lefty is simply good enterprise. One minor quibble: Suárez departed after dealing with Matt Olson (is sensible) after which Ozzie Albies, who’s a swap hitter in identify solely. He bats .250/.311/.445 towards righties and .338/.365/.571 towards lefties for his profession. I’d’ve appreciated to get a righty reliever in towards him fairly than give Suárez that phenomenally robust project as his final batter.
I already wrote about Thomson’s choice to depart Wheeler in when he was cruising the following day. I believe it was fantastic to sacrifice a little bit of anticipated worth in Recreation 2 to guard the bullpen, although it didn’t work out — Travis d’Arnaud hit a two-run homer. Thomson bought all of the matchups he needed after that – José Alvarado and Gregory Soto towards lefties, Jeff Hoffman towards a troublesome pocket of righties – however the Braves simply beat Philly’s greatest. C’est la vie.
You may suppose there aren’t many choices to speak about within the subsequent sport, a 10-2 Phillies victory, however I believe it truly produced Thomson’s weakest second of the collection. With the Phillies rolling, Thomson largely emptied out the fringes of the bullpen. However why not go the entire manner? Michael Lorenzen coated the final inning, however he might have dealt with extra. Particularly, he might have saved Seranthony Domínguez, who’s a lot larger up the bullpen hierarchy, from getting into in an 8-2 sport. Domínguez confronted Ronald Acuña Jr., Albies, and Austin Riley, then needed to face the very same three batters in a detailed sport the following day. Why give the Atlanta hitters a free look in a laugher?
That’s a minor quibble. The remainder of Recreation 4 went largely to plan, and Thomson even introduced in Craig Kimbrel an inning early to face that Acuña/Albies/Riley trifecta, a transfer I completely cherished. The Braves are a formidable opponent, however additionally they give managers an opportunity to work matchups, and I believe that Thomson did a superb job at it general, that one Domínguez slip however.
I point out that lapse as a result of I believe that Thomson in any other case managed like he was contemplating the familiarity impact. The Diamondbacks have precisely one part of the lineup that’s a pure residence for lefties: Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and Corbin Carroll batted consecutively in some order in each sport of the collection. However Alvarado, the staff’s greatest lefty, solely confronted that troika thrice; Thomson discovered methods to make use of him with out carrying him out towards the identical few batters. Ditto for Matt Strahm (thrice every) and Soto (two occasions every).
With that plan for splitting up the lefty bullpen work in place, Thomson’s job appeared simple: lean on the three reliable starters, determine a bullpen-ish sport for Recreation 4, and hope that labored. That plan appeared nice by two video games; the Phillies gained each, and Alvarado solely needed to pitch as soon as. However Thomson made one other small error, doubtless borne of the need to take no probabilities. With the Phillies up 6-0 after six innings, it was a pure spot for the low-leverage reduction brigade. However Thomson known as on Hoffman, one among his trusted relievers. Hoffman confronted Gabriel Moreno in that meaningless spot, and ended up dealing with him 5 occasions within the collection.
I’m nitpicking with these choices, as a result of I actually appreciated Thomson’s general decisions, however he ended up having to make use of Hoffman 5 occasions in seven video games, virtually solely in high-leverage conditions. That’s as a result of Kimbrel began to falter because the collection went on. His command was the largest situation – he walked 17% of opposing hitters – however no matter why issues went mistaken, Thomson responded by making Hoffman his high righty reliever. Hoffman carried out impressively in that position, however he might need had a better time if he didn’t should pitch fairly a lot.
Some extra reward for Thomson: I assumed he used Suárez fairly effectively on this collection. Suárez made two begins and confronted precisely 20 batters in every of them; he turned the lineup over twice after which confronted Marte and Carroll for a 3rd time earlier than hitting the showers. That labored hand-in-hand with Thomson’s use of his lefty relievers; by getting naturally advantageous matchups towards these robust hitters thrice together with his starter, he was in a position to combine and match the relievers behind them. Suárez solely allowed three runs over 10 innings – and the final of these runs got here when Moreno gained the fifth Hoffman/Moreno matchup of the collection to money in a runner that Suárez was answerable for.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out Recreation 4, when Cristopher Sánchez made his solely begin of the playoffs and lasted solely 11 batters (2.1 innings). With Wheeler and Nola scheduled for the following two video games, Thomson deployed a really fast hook and used all of his most trusted relievers in an try to scratch out a win with out one among his three high starters going. It might need labored, too, if Kimbrel hadn’t given up a game-tying Alek Thomas homer and allowed 4 of the six batters he confronted to succeed in. I appreciated the bullpen choices on this one; the one factor that confuses me is why Sánchez drew the beginning as an alternative of Taijuan Walker, who didn’t seem within the playoffs. That feels extra like a entrance workplace choice than a managerial one, although, so I gained’t choose Thomson for it.
Actually, I believe that Thomson managed a superb collection. I haven’t lingered on his utilization of Wheeler and Nola as a result of I don’t have any critiques. They largely made it simple on him by posting dominant begins, in fact, however he knew to remain out of the way in which given Kimbrel’s waning effectiveness and Hoffman’s heavy pitching load. So fairly than stroll by every of these choices, I’ll deal with what occurred when Nola failed. In Recreation 6, Nola gave up three runs within the second, and the offense sputtered towards Merrill Kelly. Thomson knew {that a} potential Recreation 7 would require the entire bullpen, notably the overtaxed righties; Suárez was scheduled for his traditional 20-batter outing.
So Thomson let Nola go, whilst he struggled. When Nola gave up a fourth run within the fifth, Thomson did what I needed him to do within the earlier collection: he realized that the sport was not aggressive and let Lorenzen work a number of innings. He adopted that up with Orion Kerkering, after which even threw Kimbrel (!) into the combination, seemingly realizing that he wouldn’t want him the following day. Within the climactic Recreation 7, that meant that Thomson was ready to make use of 4 relievers (counting a masterful Wheeler bullpen outing) with none of them pitching on back-to-back days. That was a pleasant little contact, regardless that it didn’t work out ultimately; the Philadelphia offense merely didn’t rating sufficient. My principal level is that this: Thomson dealt with the ABC choices so effectively that I can deal with tiny edges that he gathered or did not accumulate. That’s the mark of fine administration.