Attaboys and Get ‘Em Subsequent Occasions: Reviewing My Preseason Predictions

I’ll degree with you, FanGraphs reader: I can’t think about that FanGraphs evaluation is strictly what you’re most all for proper now, baseball-wise. The thrilling issues happening are the video games on the sphere as they occur. These playoff races are superb. The schedule units up with a beautiful mixture of both-teams-in video games and rivals taking part in spoiler. In that context, I can’t think about that many individuals are dying to examine Tommy Kahnle’s changeup-heavy arsenal, simply to choose on a random article I not too long ago wrote.

That’s by no means stopped me from writing about no matter random factor caught my eye, however I believed I’d benefit from a gradual week (once more, simply in my type of baseball evaluation, not in precise baseball) to go over some predictions I made earlier than the season. I prefer to look again by myself work for a couple of causes — not simply to indulge in successes, however that’s actually a part of it. It’s additionally helpful to speak course of and separate unhealthy outcomes from unhealthy ex-ante choices, although to be sincere, that’s actually arduous, so I’m not sure I’ll get it proper at the moment.

I’ve named the column after one in all my favourite bizarre sports activities issues. I at all times knew this, however I’ve observed it extra since I began taking part in in a leisure softball league. After you come back to the dugout, there’s a reasonably good likelihood somebody will slap your butt with their glove. It doesn’t matter what you probably did, there’s at all times a purpose to. Did you rating a run or make an incredible defensive play? It usually comes with an “attaboy” or “method to go.” Did you make an out or embarrass your self within the subject? “Get ‘em subsequent time” is sort of assured. The butt slap? That’s a continuing. The phrases that go along with it? They’re versatile. With out additional ado, let’s determine whether or not my hypothetical dugout must be congratulating or consoling me.

Hitter Breakouts
I wrote a mini-article about 4 gamers I liked for 2023 after a panel dialogue on the SABR Analytics Convention. You’ve most likely heard me wax poetic concerning the first participant on that checklist: Lars Nootbaar. I don’t assume this was a very daring declare; as I discussed in that article, he actually broke out in 2022, and I used to be mainly simply speculating that the issues he did effectively final 12 months would proceed into 2023.

Whether or not you’d rating this as one in my column comes right down to how you are feeling about merely repeating final season. Nootbaar posted mainly the identical wOBA and wRC+ as final 12 months, however with extra BABIP and fewer energy. His energy nonetheless seems to be good, to be clear; whether or not you’re all for Statcast numbers or simply the attention take a look at, it seems to be about the identical as final 12 months, simply with much less residence run luck. He posted the third-best batting line amongst Cardinals with affordable taking part in time and racked up the second-most WAR regardless of lacking a handful of video games all year long.

I can’t give myself a lot credit score for saying {that a} factor that was already happening would maintain taking place. However to the extent that one of many expertise in making breakout picks is discovering breakouts after they’ve occurred and glitzing it as much as make the choose really feel extra enjoyable, I feel I did a superb job right here.

My different hitter breakout in that article was Riley Greene, and he’s a extra attention-grabbing case. I believed his strikeout fee was certain to enhance, even when he didn’t change his strategy on the plate, and possibly even when he began swinging and lacking extra. Hey, what have you learnt: his swinging-strike fee elevated by greater than two share factors, and but his strikeout fee declined marginally.

The hellacious energy he displayed within the minors was another excuse to guess on Greene, and that additionally performed out. He completely clubbed the ball this 12 months and deserved higher energy output than he bought whilst he elevated his ISO by 50 factors. Certain, he had his fair proportion of batted ball luck when it got here to hitting for common, and he had Tommy John surgical procedure that ended his season prematurely, however the thesis that Greene would strike out much less and do extra injury on contact even with out significant adjustments was just about spot on.

Pitcher Breakouts
These ones weren’t so good! In that very same mini-article, I highlighted two pitchers: Taylor Rogers and Tyler Anderson. I’ll begin with Rogers, who was primarily in that article as a result of I wanted 4 names to speak about and solely had three I actually preferred. My thesis there was that he had a excessive ground as a stable lefty-killing reliever, and that if he developed a cutter, he would possibly flip into probably the greatest total relievers within the recreation.

That didn’t occur. Rogers remains to be the identical sinker/slider pitcher he’s at all times been, and he walked extra batters than ever earlier than in his profession this 12 months. Of explicit fear, he walked 10.9% of opposing lefties; I can tolerate excessive stroll charges from platoon specialists so long as they’re strolling the robust matchups, however he misplaced winnable battles too usually.

If there’s a lesson right here, it’s not betting on a pitcher to provide you with a brand new pitch. I don’t really feel significantly unhealthy about considering Rogers had a excessive ground; his stroll fee ballooned and he nonetheless posted a 3.71 FIP and three.33 ERA. However a breakout implies one thing thrilling, and he doesn’t actually match that invoice, so this one looks as if a miss, although not a very damaging one.

Anderson was so much worse than I anticipated. He, too, had critical command points; his 10.2% stroll fee was greater than double final 12 months’s mark. I hypothesized that his new drop-down sinker would assist him deal with same-handed hitters, an odd drawback for a junkballing lefty, so in fact he bought completely tattooed by lefties this 12 months, and that sinker gave the impression to be a part of the issue.

The factor that made me all for Anderson within the first place was his arm slot change in opposition to lefties, and he doubled down on it this 12 months. He added a slider from that decrease arm slot, although he didn’t use it significantly usually. His greatest problem was that he couldn’t command pitches from that low launch level very effectively; he walked 14.3% of opposing lefties, a fully terrible mark, and that goes a good distance in the direction of explaining his grotesque platoon splits in opposition to them.

I’m nonetheless all for specializing in pitchers who can break up the handedness battle in two and develop completely different arsenals for every, however I feel it’s clever to be respectful of how vital an excellent growth and training workers is for such a difficult strategy. Anderson prospered with the Dodgers and has thus far floundered with the Angels. Assuming I’m smarter than the Dodgers, that I noticed one thing distinctive that they missed, is clearly foolish. Betting on consistency from a pitcher who had beforehand made a profession out of inconsistency can be a head scratcher. I’m largely proud of the concept of betting on somebody who made enormous adjustments, however I most likely ought to have spent extra time fascinated by the dangers that include these adjustments.

Unheralded Prospects
I’ve been trying to determine sleeper hitters for a couple of years as a part of our prospect protection, however as I discussed in that writeup this 12 months, the method is getting tougher over time. This 12 months, the wheels actually fell off. I highlighted Angel Martinez, Osleivis Basabe, Gabriel Martinez, Esteury Ruiz, Yeiner Fernandez, and Jhonkensy Noel. Of that group, solely Fernandez had what I’d take into account a profitable offensive season, although Basabe no less than reached the majors on the sooner facet of his timeline to salvage just a little little bit of my dignity. This isn’t what you’d prefer to see for a listing of wRC+’s of hitters I recognized as attention-grabbing:

I’d prefer to let you know that that is simply an instance of excellent course of and unhealthy final result, however I don’t assume it’s. The large shortcoming of the methodology I’m utilizing — mainly combing by earlier minor league knowledge for skillsets most correlated with eventual main league success — is that it doesn’t incorporate new knowledge. It’s not precisely straightforward to seek out, however you may get Statcast-style knowledge for loads of minor leaguers at this level, and it provides a helpful new dimension of research.

Ten years in the past, the subset of fellows that didn’t appear to be conventional energy hitters, posted stable minor league numbers, and weren’t prime 100 prospects contained a mix of true slap hitters and little guys who crushed the ball or barreled it up with nice frequency. Today, everybody has gotten higher at figuring out that second group as a result of we’ve got higher knowledge. That makes for hostile choice; the fellows with good minor league numbers and good batted ball knowledge are simply capital-D dudes. They aren’t flying beneath the radar anymore. Noel was the one hitter on my checklist who doesn’t match into that “weak batted ball class,” however his dangers are extra of the “yeah however can he hit” selection anyway.

Put merely, I don’t assume that the type of sorting I’m doing is ample to determine unnoticed prospects with excessive upsides anymore, as a result of the type of guys that this may need captured 15 years in the past at the moment are getting observed. Analysis has simply gotten higher, and if I need to discover good hitters that conventional evaluators are lacking, I’ll should get higher, too. I’m unsure there’s a simple “repair” to the methodology, however I’m excited to attempt some new concepts this offseason. Which of them? I couldn’t probably say till I’ve spent extra time making an attempt. However that is the preseason prediction I’m least proud of, and I hope to have one thing higher instead sooner moderately than later.

Playoff Groups and Awards
I’ve already talked an honest quantity about my predictions due to one oddball: I picked the Orioles to win the AL East in our workers predictions. That one labored out fairly effectively, I’d say. The whole predictions had been as follows:

I additionally predicted a World Collection of Dodgers over Astros — boring! I’m going to finish up doing fairly effectively within the AL and fairly poorly within the NL, although I feel that lots of people bought bamboozled within the Senior Circuit. Everybody on workers predicted that the Padres would make the playoffs, and virtually everybody had the Cardinals too.

I feel that the lesson I’m going to remove from these is to stay with my methodology, which is to largely choose the probably groups but in addition attempt to publish a couple of undervalued choices. I didn’t assume the Orioles had been the probably group to win the AL East, however I did assume that they stood an honest likelihood of creating the playoffs, and likewise that nobody would choose them. I like that juxtaposition, and I picked the Dodgers to win the NL West for the same purpose, imagine it or not. Solely three of 27 prognosticators had them successful the division, and I believed it was near a 50/50 shot.

I’m not likely positive find out how to assess the thought course of behind these predictions looking back, apart from to say that if you wish to stand out on workout routines like this, it’s a good suggestion to hunt a couple of undervalued choices. You may’t simply go rogue on each single choose, and leaning into the Giants as an alternative of the Diamondbacks as my unlikely group within the NL didn’t pan out, however I prefer to think about the train as a bracket-picking contest, and it’s arduous to win in case you simply go all chalk. Sprinkling in a couple of 10% probabilities that the remainder of the pickers are weighing as 0% probabilities is a enjoyable means to do this.

To be sincere, I don’t have so much to say about my awards picks. I didn’t put as a lot time into these as I did into the playoff groups. I largely went chalk with Cy Younger and Rookie of the 12 months choices, after which picked MVPs based mostly on which groups I believed would have viable contenders on nice groups. If the Astros and Mets had delivered enormous seasons, I feel Alvarez and Lindor would have been on the coronary heart of them quite a lot of the time.

Thanks for studying by this largely self-centered train. I feel there’s one thing to be realized from wanting again on previous predictions, to carry myself accountable if nothing else. I knew quite a lot of the conclusions earlier than writing this text, however I nonetheless realized extra about what I dislike about my sleeper hitter methodology, in addition to what I do like about a couple of different predictions I made. Hopefully after I write one thing comparable for subsequent 12 months, I’m 5% higher on the train on account of doing this at the moment. All in all, I feel I’d award myself an attaboy, although with some clear get ‘em subsequent occasions within the combine.