Even because the Rangers Slide, Corey Seager Is Raking

The Rangers have been sputtering, dropping 15 of their final 19 since August 15 to show a 3.5-game AL West lead right into a three-game deficit, with the Astros, who simply swept a three-game sequence from them at Globe Life Subject, and Mariners each above them. But even because the crew’s offense has dried up, Corey Seager has been on a tear. Since coming back from a sprained proper thumb firstly of August, the Rangers shortstop has homered 13 occasions in 30 video games; this previous week, he lastly collected sufficient plate appearances to take over the AL leads in each batting common and wRC+. If not for Shohei Ohtani, Seager would have a fairly first rate case for an MVP award, even along with his absences.

Seager solely missed 9 video games as a result of his thumb sprain, which he suffered on July 21 sliding into second base in a recreation in opposition to the Dodgers. That was his second journey to the injured listing this yr, as he additionally missed 31 video games from April 12–Might 17 as a result of a left hamstring pressure. But the interruptions haven’t hindered him in any respect.

The form of his contribution has assorted at occasions, however Seager’s WRC+ has been fairly constant throughout these three stretches. his month-to-month splits, he’s posted a 177 wRC+ in each month save for Might (130) and September (118), although in fact the latter is barely underway (it doesn’t assist that he’s 0-for-6 since I began penning this, sigh). Due to his time missed, he didn’t have sufficient plate appearances to qualify for the league lead in any fee stats — a participant should have 3.1 per crew recreation — till September 1:

Seager entered Thursday with a 19-point lead over the Rays’ Yandy Díaz in batting common and nearly tied with Ohtani in wRC+ (he was two factors forward getting into Wednesday). Ohtani is now six factors forward in slugging proportion and 11 in on-base proportion.

Ohtani’s offensive contributions as a DH are sufficient to put him within the AL lead in our model of place participant WAR with 6.5, 1.1 WAR forward of Seager and 1.0 forward of Julio Rodríguez. However in Baseball Reference’s model of WAR, Seager has a 6.1–5.9 edge over Ohtani, although the purpose is moderately moot given the latter’s 4.1 pitching WAR.

Ohtani, who received’t pitch once more this yr as a result of a UCL tear, is near a lock to win the league’s MVP award, however absent a two-way unicorn, Seager can be nicely positioned to win regardless of his missed time. Even leaving apart pitchers who’ve often received the award, there’s precedent in honoring a dominant participant even when he was shelved for a major stretch. The most effective instance of that is George Brett, who performed in simply 117 video games in 1980, the yr he chased a .400 batting common and received the slash-stat Triple Crown with a .390/.454/.664 line, that whereas additionally main the majors in wRC+ (198) and WAR (9.1). Amongst pre-expansion period place gamers, Cubs catcher Gabby Hartnett received in 1935 after enjoying in 116 out of 154 video games and hitting .344/.404/.545 (154 wRC+, third-best within the NL).

The presence of Ohtani implies that Seager received’t win, however there’s no disgrace in that. What the 29-year-old shortstop is doing is spectacular sufficient and deserves a more in-depth look. The very first thing that stands out when appraising his 2023 stats is simply how laborious he’s hitting the ball:

Seager is setting profession highs in exit velocity and barrel fee and is close to a excessive in hard-hit fee as nicely, all whereas putting within the 98th percentile in all three of these stats. Solely within the pandemic-shortened 2020 season did he even method these numbers, however he now has practically 80% extra batted ball occasions than in that shortened season.

Past that, you possibly can see that he’s been fairly constant when it comes to his groundball and fly ball charges save for 2021, his last season with the Dodgers and one which was marred by his lacking two and a half months as a result of a proper hand fracture. Just like this season, he was an absolute beast upon returning, batting .335/.417/.592 (168 wRC+) from July 30 onward, in comparison with .265/.361/.422 (115 wRC+) earlier than; even so, his groundball charges have been up in each segments of his season.

Seager isn’t pulling the ball greater than standard, however he’s pulling it within the air at a career-high clip. Of the 26 occasions he’s pulled a fly ball this yr, 14 have left the yard; final yr, he set profession highs in each classes, with 15 homers on 37 pulled flies, for a fee just under this yr’s mark. By comparability, in 2021, he hit simply 9 such balls, 5 of which become homers. A very good little bit of this owes one thing to Seager’s transfer from Dodger Stadium to Globe Life Subject; his newish ballpark is 4 ft shorter to the best discipline nook than his outdated one (326 versus 330) and 11 ft shorter to proper middle (374 ft versus 385). That solely interprets to a two-point distinction in our park house run components for lefties (104 for Globe Life Park, 102 for Dodger Stadium), nevertheless it does seem that Seager has been taking goal at proper discipline greater than ever.

I’ll return to the topic of Seager’s pull fee, however first, let’s notice that even when he’s not pulling the ball, he’s doing a ton of injury:

That’s all grounders, liners, and fly balls hit to middle or the other discipline. Seager was equally productive on this realm in 2020, however he’s carried out it this yr for nearly twice as lengthy. It is a day behind, however getting into Wednesday, his 210 wRC+ on this context ranked ninth within the majors:

Again to the topic of Seager’s pull tendency: as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello famous this previous winter, he was harm greater than any hitter final yr as a result of infield shifts, which he confronted a staggering 93% of the time. By Statcast’s numbers, Seager went 6-for-107 (.056) on grounders pulled in opposition to the shift, a giant a part of the explanation he completed the season at .245/.317/.455 (115 wRC+) total, setting full-season lows in all 4 of these marks. By Petriello’s estimate, making an allowance for numerous Statcast measures (exit velocity, launch angle, hit distance, and spray angles), Seager would have hit .278/.347/.489 had he not been shifted in opposition to.

With the shift now banned, Seager stood to enhance in 2023. I can’t replicate Petriello’s full evaluation, however I can illustrate Seager’s enchancment in different methods. Right here’s a year-to-year comparability of his precise and estimated efficiency on batted balls that traveled lower than 220 ft (the cutoff Petriello used), no matter infield alignment:

The primary set of numbers covers batted balls of all stripes. Seager has hit these balls a bit more durable this yr, however the anticipated numbers are very comparable. His precise numbers present an unlimited enchancment, with positive factors of 129 factors of batting common and 168 of slugging proportion. He’s only one hit shy of matching final yr’s complete on such balls in 100 fewer at-bats. Wow!

simply the groundballs, the positive factors are even larger, and we will see the impression in anticipated stats that comes with Seager including some further oomph within the type of exit velo. It’s price noting that he’s pulled fewer of these grounders this yr relative to final (50.4% versus 56.3%), in order that’s having some impression upon the stats as nicely. You will get a way of the impression within the comparability of the anticipated stats on pulled groundballs, and once more notice that the precise positive factors for 2023 relative to ’22 are huge.

The place I in contrast Seager’s 2022 and ’23 outcomes on balls not pulled utilizing our knowledge from Sports activities Information Methods, I assumed it could be price displaying the Statcast precise and anticipated numbers after filtering out solely the pulled grounders:

Even after we exclude the kind of batted balls almost definitely to be swallowed up by infield shifts, which account for about 29% of his batted balls final yr and 24.6% of his batted balls this yr, Seager has posted huge positive factors. Remember that his total xwOBAs on contact (xwOBACON) have been .413 for final yr and .504 for this this yr; excluding these largely unproductive pulled grounders, the previous rises 55 factors, the latter 59 factors, which is to say that that side is definitely fairly even. We are able to additionally see from the final set of numbers that Seager was far in need of his anticipated stats final yr, however he’s proper on the cash this yr; notice that his xSLG is simply three factors increased than his precise SLG.

That is the model of Seager the Rangers hoped they have been getting after they signed him to that huge 10-year, $325 million deal simply earlier than the lockout in 2021. Sadly, his sturdiness — or lack thereof — is a part of the package deal; we’re speaking a few participant who’s appeared in over 100 video games simply twice within the final six seasons, although barring disaster, he’ll accomplish that once more this yr. As I famous beforehand, Ezeqiuel Duran did a wonderful job of filling in at shortstop throughout Seager’s absences, batting .291/.354/.478 in 147 PA, although he’s slumped these days filling in for the injured Josh Jung at third base, hitting .263/.326/.325 (80 wRC+) since August 7, when he took over the recent nook.

Duran is hardly the one Ranger who has slumped throughout the crew’s skid (Adolis García, Jonah Heim, and Leody Taveras have all been notably unproductive throughout their 4–15 slide), which has knocked the Rangers to half a recreation out of the third Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays (77–63). As so usually occurs, the crew’s spot within the playoffs might come all the way down to these video games key gamers have missed as a result of accidents. It’s robust to pin the blame on Seager provided that he’s tied for his profession excessive in WAR, but when the Rangers blow this, these absences can be remembered.