“The Factor” About Alex Cobb’s Virtually No-Hitter

Late on Tuesday night time, baseball followers all around the world tuned their dials to the ninth inning of the Giants and Reds’ matchup in San Francisco. By way of eight innings and 25 batters, Giants starter Alex Cobb had allowed only a single baserunner on a Casey Schmitt error, whereas setting down the opposite 24 so as. Within the ninth, Cobb sandwiched a stroll between two routine fly outs earlier than leaving a splitter over the center of the plate to Spencer Steer, who crushed an opposite-field liner previous the outstretched glove of proper fielder Luis Matos to finish the no-hitter and the shutout. Whereas a splitter ended Cobb’s no-hit bid tantalizingly near completion, it’s additionally the rationale his try obtained that far within the first place. Even impartial of Cobb’s sensible outing, his splitter made historical past in its personal approach on Tuesday night time.

Earlier than going into the splitter, let’s discuss Cobb’s normal strategy to pitching. He’ll attempt to catch you off guard with a knuckle curveball on the primary pitch, hoping to steal strike one (9 of the 11 curveballs in his full recreation had been on first pitches), however after that he nearly completely throws sinkers and splitters in near-equal proportion. These two pitches function equally – each leverage the facility of seam-shifted wake to maximise arm-side motion, lacking barrels and getting batters to hammer the ball into the bottom once they make contact. However a fast take a look at the plate self-discipline metrics exhibits his distinct targets in using every pitch:

Like many pitchers who throw splitters, Cobb makes use of his as a weapon to get hitters to chase under the zone. He’ll get hitters into uncomfortable counts by filling the zone with sinkers, then throw a break up that appears practically an identical earlier than diving beneath their barrels. Splitters are fairly unusual within the majors – whereas 2023 has represented a peak in splitter utilization, they nonetheless solely characterize about 2% of whole pitches. Whereas there are others who throw splitters, together with Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, and most notably former NPB gamers like Shohei Ohtani, Kodai Senga, and Shintaro Fujinami, what separates Cobb from the remainder of the pack is the sheer frequency with which he throws them. Previously three seasons, he’s ranked first, first, and second in splitter utilization price amongst beginning pitchers, throwing them 38% of the time this 12 months. This splitter, dubbed “The Factor,” ranks second amongst splitters to Gausman’s in pitch worth since Cobb’s debut in 2011. The Factor isn’t simply Cobb’s primary secondary pitch, it turns into his solely secondary pitch in deep counts. And generally, he’ll make it his main pitch.

Cobb threw 83 splitters on Tuesday. For the reason that pitch monitoring period started in 2008, nobody else had ever thrown 80 splitters in a single recreation. Or 70, for that matter. Heck, moreover a lone Brad Penny begin in 2010 with 66 splitters, nobody else had even thrown 60. Cobb’s shattering of the single-game splitter report wasn’t only a results of his pitch rely (his 131 pitches thrown is the best since Mike Fiers‘ no-hitter in 2019); he ranks behind solely Penny in single-game splitter proportion, as they comprised 63.4% of his whole choices. Even throwing 50% splitters in a recreation is a uncommon prevalence, although it’s unsurprising to see Cobb dominating that leaderboard as properly. Actually, all 9 of his majority-splitter video games have come up to now two seasons:

Cobb’s splitter-first strategy on this recreation supplied many benefits over his typical plan of assault, which entails utilizing sinkers to arrange the splitter. The primary – and most blatant – will be seen from a fast look at his splits (no pun supposed). His splitter is a darned efficient pitch, main his arsenal in chases, swinging strikes, floor balls, wOBA towards, and general run worth. You probably have a pitch that may do nearly every part properly, why not throw extra of them?

Second, this transformation in pitch utilization was doubtless a results of advance scouting on the Giants’ half. Whereas the Reds’ offense is center of the pack versus sinkers, they rank thirteenth within the NL in wOBA towards offspeed pitches. One hitter who significantly struggles towards offspeed stuff is TJ Friedl, hitting simply .167 with a 34% whiff price. Cobb capitalized on this weak spot by throwing him 11 splitters in comparison with simply 4 sinkers, three of which got here on his first pitches of the sport. Friedl’s 0-fer introduced his line towards splitters to a measly 1-for-19. Reds hitters swung and missed 18 occasions of their effort to muster up one hit, a season excessive for Cobb. Unsurprisingly, all 18 whiffs got here towards The Factor.

Lastly, scaling again the sinker in favor of the break up has made the sinker much more efficient, particularly in taking free strikes when hitters had been anticipating a splitter to dive beneath the strike zone. Whereas Cobb’s surface-level outcomes have been shockingly constant up to now three years, posting ERAs within the mid-threes, he’s skilled excessive ranges of variance below the hood. After posting a formidable 2.80 FIP and three.15 xERA in his debut season with the Giants, his FIP has climbed by a full run and his xERA has jumped to a scary 4.64. Whereas he’s incomes fewer whiffs than earlier than, probably the most noticeable distinction from final 12 months is a close to doubling of his house run price. Whereas it’s straightforward to level to an outlier HR/FB price and declare dangerous luck, his barrel price has spiked at a price proportional to the rise in dingers.

The sinker has regressed probably the most, permitting 9 homers to date (in comparison with simply 4 final 12 months) and a .365 xwOBA, the best of any of his pitches. On common, he’s thrown his sinkers increased than every other season in his profession, stopping it from working its magic as a groundball pitch. And whereas a distinction of a pair inches could not appear vital, only a few mistake pitches can have an outsized impact on barrel and residential run charges. Certainly, his sinker’s Location+ has fallen from 105 to 102 over the previous two seasons, as increased sinkers are typically hit tougher and on a line. On this begin, he missed spots with each pitches alongside his arm’s path by means of the zone, however his capability to attract chases on low splitters stored him out of harmful hitters’ counts:

If hitters are doing extra harm to the sinker than they used to, then it’s in Cobb’s curiosity to get as few swings as attainable towards it. That is the place the splitter is available in. Batters considering of the splitter as the first pitch could surrender on choices that they count on to maneuver out of the zone, as a substitute watching them flutter over the plate, even when situated suboptimally. Within the seventh inning, each Steer and Elly De La Cruz took first-pitch sinkers within the nitro zone, setting the desk for a barrage of splitters chased exterior the zone that led to a strikeout and groundout. Of Cobb’s 36 sinkers thrown, 17 had been taken for strikes, giving him the higher hand in numerous plate appearances. Whereas the common hitter swings at about two-thirds of the pitches they see within the zone, Reds hitters noticed 23 in-zone sinkers and swung at simply six of them. Even once they did swing, not one of the balls put in play towards it had an xBA increased than .200. In whole, Cobb racked up 28 known as strikes on the night time, tied for the second most of any pitching efficiency all 12 months.

Main with the splitter allowed Cobb to maximise the strengths of his wipeout pitch, whereas concurrently shielding the weaknesses of his sinker. The synergy of his arsenal, together with added velocity, has introduced Cobb to a brand new profession apex at an age when many pitchers are in decline. And he’s doing this regardless of recovering from two main accidents and briefly dropping really feel for his signature pitch. But, his 3.20 FIP over the previous three seasons is the perfect stretch of his profession, and he’s lately added his first All-Star look to the combo. Shedding a no-hitter simply two strikes away from glory will be heartbreaking, however he’s solely come again stronger from adversity earlier than. That’s simply The Factor about Alex Cobb.